I don't know why this makes me so grumpy. But, on the basis of this very humdrum story, I cannot see anything in this "leveling up" agenda that does not simply come down to "partially restore state spending to make up for how it was cut from 2010"... 1/ on.ft.com/3BmRiS2
The test I constantly apply is "what do we have that Gordon Brown didn't have in 2007" and there is nothing I can think of, save a change in colours. Yet the story is written as if "regenerating places and trying to find new private sector activities" was invented in 2019 2/
We knew high streets were becoming rubbish in 2011. Pork barrel bidding for private sector ideas began in 2010 with the Regional Growth Fund. Actually, it began way earlier with European Regional Development Funds, but let's pretend that EU bureaucracy rendered it useless 3/
Even the idea of unitarising local authorities into bigger units - wasn't that actually happening in 2010, but Eric Pickles ended it IIRC? And let's not even start on Regional Development Agencies, abolished then as well 4/
Plus there's the whole basic idea that if local authorities have more money, they might spend it on things that make local people feel better, like flower gardens and libraries. Just like they could before budgets were murdered after 2010... Now it's announced with this gif...5/
My point is ABSOLUTELY NOT that everything was good in 2010, wicked Austerians ruined it all, etc etc. Clearly it wasn't. It is that diligent and better-resourced brains working on this were STRUGGLING with it! Just having money to fling wasn't the obvious answer 6/
(Which free market conservatives were quick to say - state spending crowds out, remember that?)

So what's the theory now? "You'll appreciate state spending now - having learned what it's like when it's drastically cut for 10 years??"

A Brexit angle?!?

7/
Honestly, insofar as I can judge, I welcome this restored funding. I think the endless slogan-titled competition pots are probably irritating though. But the breathless coverage as if some Whole New Political Economy Thing has been invented is just so captured... 8/8

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More from @Gilesyb

20 Sep
Thinking aloud: so this story talks of the cost of a support package running to "several billion pounds", and with that much taxpayer money on the line, the political question will be: to whose benefit is this going? A variety of answers: 1/

ft.com/content/684e4e…
The most acceptable (though maybe not to economists) would be: the taxpayer £ in effect shields vulnerable energy consumers from facing the full cost of energy for a while, indirectly. Paying companies to price at a loss while the spike persists 2/
The least acceptable: funds bail out equity investors who gambled unsuccessful on a strategy that involved harvesting consumers with low apparent prices, taking a risk that wholesale prices don't rise, going bust if it fails, pocketing the profit if it succeeds. Unlikely! 3/
Read 5 tweets
13 Sep
This @tonydanker speech to the @CBItweets conference is quite hard-hitting.

Long section shaming the amount of investment the UK government appears to be content with. Absolutely flays a business rates system that he says punishes such investment
Like everyone in the past 5 years, he calls on the Apprenticeship Levy to be reformed. People get the principle, but the delivery needs to be changed
Danker is unflinching in his criticism of the delivery of infrastructure projects. Key example is the delay to nuclear financing. And shipping: "We could leave the world in zero-carbon shipping".
Read 6 tweets
13 Sep
Am curious about "Street Votes", which seems like a nice little policy.

What is the theory behind the idea that it might be amazing for *growth*? I hope it is not "more construction activity" ... is it through allocation? More people able to live in more productive places? 1/
Suppose the policy knocked the lights out and delivered 100,000 more dwelling places in 5 years in highly productive urban locations.

Then that allowed the people affected to earn 20% more, call it £6000.

That's a one-off rise of £600m in GVA. Nice ... but 0.03% of GDP 2/
As for construction activity, 20,000 more dwelling places/year, finger in the air, that's £1bn of GVA. Sounds a lot - but with construction facing supply capacity limits, I am not sure extra demand here = growth. May be wrong? But it's also one-off 3/
Read 4 tweets
24 Aug
“Divestment... has no clear real-world impact since 10% of the market not buying your stock is not the same as 10% of your customers not buying your product” 

Long counterblast to the (cynical?) optimism around ESG investing, h/t @rbrtrmstrng 1/

link.medium.com/OEUfXua7Xib
I expect a few to say "well, duh - we knew this corporate ESG craze was all greenwash" - but it is nice to see the same points that have been bugging me posed by this expert, such as that one above, and whether less *secondary* investment in X really makes any difference ...2/
Here is part two medium.com/@sosofancy/the…
with this superb quote from @pmarca- impact investing “is like a houseboat — not a very good house, not a very good boat.”
3/
Read 5 tweets
22 Aug
Ok. Have mostly taken refuge with the cat, who has finally found a species she distrusts more than the Retriever (pictured). The moment the music started, she hid under the bed 1/
Downstairs, bottles and cans everywhere, including some from dark recesses of the house that I don't think I've seen since we moved here. Rather relieved not to have found an empty vinegar bottle 2/
One of the darker recesses, the larder, is strewn with dog food pellets. I'd take evens on one of the boys getting the munchies, impatient for the gigantic pizza order I made around 9pm, and scarfing a handful 3/
Read 13 tweets
9 Aug
OK, so earlier I tweeted a chart of internationally fully-vaccinated rates, and wondered if someone had split the red and blue US states.
And then I did it and @ritwik_priya wondered if this was an income effect. So I investigated! 1/
Here is the red-blue split in fully vaccinated (FV) rates by time (lefthand side - incidentally, it is depressingly easy to sort the states - very few toss-ups)

But then I looked at GDP per capita and compared to latest FV-rate 2/ ImageImage
... and you can see a *rough* correlation. The slope of the chart says the FV rate rises 0.5 ppts per $1000 of GDP per capita.

So *then* I split that out, i.e. measured the distance from the sloped line, and compared Democrat and Republican states. You get this: 3/ Image
Read 4 tweets

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