This holds true for many here.
https://twitter.com/Hiranyareta/status/1451932523433431046?s=20
Himachal Byelection-2021
- Can't comment on other states but when it comes to Himachal, this is fact free analysis. Our commentators like to force fit their pet peeve(s) as against genuine analysis.
- In this thread, lets look at BJP's performance in Himachal byelections.
+
- Can't comment on other states but when it comes to Himachal, this is fact free analysis. Our commentators like to force fit their pet peeve(s) as against genuine analysis.
- In this thread, lets look at BJP's performance in Himachal byelections.
+
+
(A) State Assembly:
(1) Fatehpur:
- First, BJP has NOT won this seat for last 13 years!
- -In 2021, BJP denied ticket to its 2017 candidate (Kripal Singh, BJP VP) from Fatehpur, and nominated Baldev Thakur (image-1)
- Baldev Thakur had fought as independent in 2017.
(A) State Assembly:
(1) Fatehpur:
- First, BJP has NOT won this seat for last 13 years!
- -In 2021, BJP denied ticket to its 2017 candidate (Kripal Singh, BJP VP) from Fatehpur, and nominated Baldev Thakur (image-1)
- Baldev Thakur had fought as independent in 2017.
+
- And it seems Kripal Singh Parmar was quite miffed about it.
- Graph below shows vote % from 2017.
- Indp-1 is Baldev Thakur, and Indp-2 is Rajan Sushant.
- On paper at least, BJP vote share in 2021 should've been the combined vote share of Baldev Thakur & Kripal Singh +
- And it seems Kripal Singh Parmar was quite miffed about it.
- Graph below shows vote % from 2017.
- Indp-1 is Baldev Thakur, and Indp-2 is Rajan Sushant.
- On paper at least, BJP vote share in 2021 should've been the combined vote share of Baldev Thakur & Kripal Singh +
+ from 2017.
- So, BJP would've hoped to get at least 45%+ vote share in 2021.
- But what happened?
- See the 2021 Vote % graph below.
- While BJP got only marginal gain, the votes went to INC and an independent candidate who saw 12%+ gain!
- This independent candidate is +
- So, BJP would've hoped to get at least 45%+ vote share in 2021.
- But what happened?
- See the 2021 Vote % graph below.
- While BJP got only marginal gain, the votes went to INC and an independent candidate who saw 12%+ gain!
- This independent candidate is +
+ Rajan Sushant.
- Who happens to a former BJP member, and 5 times MLA; he was expelled in 2011.
- So, to me this looks more like a case of infighting and sabotage, than BJP loosing because of sentiments being against the party.
- As already stated, BJP hasn't won from here for +
- Who happens to a former BJP member, and 5 times MLA; he was expelled in 2011.
- So, to me this looks more like a case of infighting and sabotage, than BJP loosing because of sentiments being against the party.
- As already stated, BJP hasn't won from here for +
+ last 13 years.
- INC retained it seats while BJP lost a chance to wrest it from them.
---
(2) Jubbal - Kotkhai
- This is mother of all mismanagement!
- Driven a policy to not give ticket to wards of former ministers, BJP gave ticket to a newcomer rather than Chetan Bragta.
+
- INC retained it seats while BJP lost a chance to wrest it from them.
---
(2) Jubbal - Kotkhai
- This is mother of all mismanagement!
- Driven a policy to not give ticket to wards of former ministers, BJP gave ticket to a newcomer rather than Chetan Bragta.
+
+
- Chetan Bragta (now expelled from BJP) was BJP IT Cell convener, and son of Narinder Bragta (who's demise led to byelections)
- Well, Chetan Bragta decides to run as an independent candidate.
- From 49.8% vote share in 2017, BJP plummets down to 4.7%! 🤪
- Why?
+
- Chetan Bragta (now expelled from BJP) was BJP IT Cell convener, and son of Narinder Bragta (who's demise led to byelections)
- Well, Chetan Bragta decides to run as an independent candidate.
- From 49.8% vote share in 2017, BJP plummets down to 4.7%! 🤪
- Why?
+
+
- Because Chetan Bragta secured 41.8% vote share as an independent candidate!
- He basically took away all BJP votes, some of which also went to INC.
- This loss is nothing but wrong candidate selection and internal politics of BJP screwing BJP electorally.
+
- Because Chetan Bragta secured 41.8% vote share as an independent candidate!
- He basically took away all BJP votes, some of which also went to INC.
- This loss is nothing but wrong candidate selection and internal politics of BJP screwing BJP electorally.
+
(3) Arki
- This seat has historically fluctuated between BJP and Congress.
- Since 2017, it was held by INC's Virbhadra Singh, one of Himachal's most iconic political leaders.
- Vote share in 2017 was as follows.
- INC had 9% vote share lead over BJP.
+
- This seat has historically fluctuated between BJP and Congress.
- Since 2017, it was held by INC's Virbhadra Singh, one of Himachal's most iconic political leaders.
- Vote share in 2017 was as follows.
- INC had 9% vote share lead over BJP.
+
+
- Results in 2021 byelections (due to demise of Virbhadra Singh)
- BJP increased its vote share and the lead has reduced to 5.3%.
---
Net result: Of the three seats it has won in State Assembly, INC gained only one seat. And that too, due to rank mismanagement by BJP.
+
- Results in 2021 byelections (due to demise of Virbhadra Singh)
- BJP increased its vote share and the lead has reduced to 5.3%.
---
Net result: Of the three seats it has won in State Assembly, INC gained only one seat. And that too, due to rank mismanagement by BJP.
+
+
Mandi LS Seat
- From 2004 to 2014, the seat was held Virbhadra Singh, or his wife Pratibha Singh.
- BJP took the seat in 2014, and retained it in 2019.
- Expect for 2013, and 2019, the vote share of winner has not crossed 60% mark.
- BJP has 68.8% share in 2019 because INC +
Mandi LS Seat
- From 2004 to 2014, the seat was held Virbhadra Singh, or his wife Pratibha Singh.
- BJP took the seat in 2014, and retained it in 2019.
- Expect for 2013, and 2019, the vote share of winner has not crossed 60% mark.
- BJP has 68.8% share in 2019 because INC +
+ candidate was a political nobody except for the fact that he was grandson of former Telecom Minister Sukh Ram.
- Sukh Ram was in BJP when he asked for a ticket for his grandson. On being denied the same, he jumped ship to Congress, and got Mandi LS ticket for his grandson.
+
- Sukh Ram was in BJP when he asked for a ticket for his grandson. On being denied the same, he jumped ship to Congress, and got Mandi LS ticket for his grandson.
+
+
- Interestingly, 2019 was the only time since 1998 when Virbhadra Singh, or his wife Pratibha Singh (mainly Pratibha Singh) had not contested from this seat.
- In 2021, BJP is back to its general avg % share in the seat.
- INC winning margin is only 1% or about 7,490 votes
+
- Interestingly, 2019 was the only time since 1998 when Virbhadra Singh, or his wife Pratibha Singh (mainly Pratibha Singh) had not contested from this seat.
- In 2021, BJP is back to its general avg % share in the seat.
- INC winning margin is only 1% or about 7,490 votes
+
+
- And not to forget that as wife of deceased Virbhadra Singh, king of erstwhile kingdom of Rampur Bushahr, she would've sympathy wave with her as well.
- Virbhadra Singh was longest serving CM of Himachal, and must respected across all sections of society, across state.
+
- And not to forget that as wife of deceased Virbhadra Singh, king of erstwhile kingdom of Rampur Bushahr, she would've sympathy wave with her as well.
- Virbhadra Singh was longest serving CM of Himachal, and must respected across all sections of society, across state.
+
+
- Nevertheless, BJP needs to do introspection and check on its state level management covering candidate selection, and ground level mobilization.
- Nevertheless, BJP needs to do introspection and check on its state level management covering candidate selection, and ground level mobilization.
There are politicians, and then there are politicians, and then, there is Sadji! 😋
https://twitter.com/TheQuint/status/1456958291045715973?s=20
On this #ConstitutionDay2021, let it be absolutely clear that India is a democracy because bulk of its population is Hindu. And not because there's a document which says India is a democracy. Just having a Constitution does not a democracy makes. Hindu society is generally +
+ amenable to law, reason, and peaceful. And it is progressive in its outlook. It believes in discussion, and engaging in debate to settle issues. Though, now its having a second thought about it considering how Constitution has been used to ride roughshod over Hindus, and +
+ implement a bastardized version of secularism.
1963: Pakistan & China finalize boundary. It cedes Shaksgam Valley to China
- After 1965 war, US stops supplies to Pakistan Army. Pakistan turns to China which gives large qty of tanks, guns & other equipment
- Same eqpt used against India in 1971 War
- After 1965 war, US stops supplies to Pakistan Army. Pakistan turns to China which gives large qty of tanks, guns & other equipment
- Same eqpt used against India in 1971 War
https://twitter.com/nistula/status/1488870880008564736?s=20&t=iEBFYh9Ca-Ru1jlXMEjyOw
#RahulGandhi speech today tells you what's fundamentally wrong with Congress.
- First, the Congress has taken a hard turn towards left.
- It feels that by continuously invoking Ambani and Adani, and creating a narrative of GOI being pro-rich, and anti-poor, it can again find +
- First, the Congress has taken a hard turn towards left.
- It feels that by continuously invoking Ambani and Adani, and creating a narrative of GOI being pro-rich, and anti-poor, it can again find +
+ mass appeal.
- Even a cursory analysis of this governments' strategy since 2014 will tell you that it has laser like focus on delivery benefits to the poor.
- It has worked very hard to improve last mile reach to reduce leakage to minimum.
- BJP knows where the votes come +
- Even a cursory analysis of this governments' strategy since 2014 will tell you that it has laser like focus on delivery benefits to the poor.
- It has worked very hard to improve last mile reach to reduce leakage to minimum.
- BJP knows where the votes come +
+ from and has vigorously targeted this segment.
- So, why does Congress continue along this rich versus poor strategy?
- I think this has more to do with advisors who form the core around Rahul & Sonia Gandhi.
- My guess is that these advisors are 'intellectual' +
- So, why does Congress continue along this rich versus poor strategy?
- I think this has more to do with advisors who form the core around Rahul & Sonia Gandhi.
- My guess is that these advisors are 'intellectual' +
+ type who spin theories in their head. They've no connect with the masses, have no idea how politics works on the ground, or what people actually want.
- To have a coherent, viable strategy, Congress needs genuine political leaders with mass appeal, and who know people's +
- To have a coherent, viable strategy, Congress needs genuine political leaders with mass appeal, and who know people's +
+ aspirations.
- But here, Sonia Gandhi is in a bind.
- With Congress at its weakest, it cannot afford to have other leaders with mass appeal who can outshine Rahul Gandhi or mount a challenge.
- So, it has picked no-bodies, or those with useless degrees and PhD from foreign +
- But here, Sonia Gandhi is in a bind.
- With Congress at its weakest, it cannot afford to have other leaders with mass appeal who can outshine Rahul Gandhi or mount a challenge.
- So, it has picked no-bodies, or those with useless degrees and PhD from foreign +
+ universities as its advisors.
- But these chaps don't have a rupee worth of knowledge about how politics works in India.
- Consequently, Congress is in a downward spiral towards hard left.
- A smart politician will know why Modi and BJP win.
- He/She will also know that +
- But these chaps don't have a rupee worth of knowledge about how politics works in India.
- Consequently, Congress is in a downward spiral towards hard left.
- A smart politician will know why Modi and BJP win.
- He/She will also know that +
+ Overton Window has shifted in Indian politics, and will continue to do so in medium term.
- He/She would craft its strategies accordingly.
- But instead of aligning itself with the people want, the Congress wants people to align with itself!
+
- He/She would craft its strategies accordingly.
- But instead of aligning itself with the people want, the Congress wants people to align with itself!
+
+
- And building Congress in my opinion will require 10-15 years as a genuine, Indian centric, political party.
- Not one which is similar to a Mughal court with king/queen at top.
- And where everything is up for sale for a right price as long as the King/Queen get their cut
+
- And building Congress in my opinion will require 10-15 years as a genuine, Indian centric, political party.
- Not one which is similar to a Mughal court with king/queen at top.
- And where everything is up for sale for a right price as long as the King/Queen get their cut
+
+
- One which is driven by jhola-chap, NAC, and urban - naxal types who are mere extension of breaking-India forces.
- BUT, this does not seem likely.
- Today, this Congress is in a form where it will be burn down this country if it has to, to get back to power.
+
- One which is driven by jhola-chap, NAC, and urban - naxal types who are mere extension of breaking-India forces.
- BUT, this does not seem likely.
- Today, this Congress is in a form where it will be burn down this country if it has to, to get back to power.
+
+
- For them BJP, RSS & anything to do with Hindu resurgence is not-tolerable.
- Any such burning down, or mass scale violence will be explained away in terms of tacking Hindu Right Wing.
- So, Congress in its current form must go and this requires Gandhis to be removed from it.
- For them BJP, RSS & anything to do with Hindu resurgence is not-tolerable.
- Any such burning down, or mass scale violence will be explained away in terms of tacking Hindu Right Wing.
- So, Congress in its current form must go and this requires Gandhis to be removed from it.
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