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Helen Miller

28 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read

Short thread on where I think we are with Business rates.
Govt launched ‘fundamental review’. Budget bought some welcome changes – more frequent revaluation, exemptions for some investments - but not fundamental reform. Problems with BR predate pandemic and will remain.
1/4

We’ve said many times- business rates are NOT killing the high street; a land value tax would keep the best bits of the system and remove the problematic bits.
Explanations here:
📜 ifs.org.uk/publications/1…
🗣️ ifs.org.uk/podcast/are-bu…
2/4

Govt consultation response said:“arguments in favour of LVT are outweighed by a lack of evidence of the benefits, the significant practical challenges of introducing an LVT, and the probable adverse impacts in relatively high-value areas such as city centres”. I disagree but: 3/4

On this basis, there’s no evidence in favour of online sales tax (still being considered); would have major practical difficulties (what's an ‘online sale’); would adversely impact high value online business. AND, I don’t think it would work to ‘offset’ the effects of BR.
End.

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Helen Miller

@HelenMiller_IFS

28 Oct

@StuartAdam_IFS

Air Passenger Duty changes will INCREASE FLYING….
OBR forecasts ~400k more flights per year.
But NOT UK EMISSIONS. Here’s why (reason is not obvious):
1/N
(from @StuartAdam_IFS
@TheIFS
presentation)

Domestic flights are within UK Emissions Trading Scheme. This puts a cap on emissions from things covered. BROADLY, more emissions from domestic aviation -> more demand for permits -> higher ETS prices -> lower emissions elsewhere. Overall emissions within ETS unchanged. 2/n

At same time, higher APD on long haul will cut emissions.
(worth remembering that, thanks to VAT, business flights still subsidised. We showed that here: ifs.org.uk/publications/1…)
3/n

Read 4 tweets

Helen Miller

@HelenMiller_IFS

26 Mar 20

In advance of package for the self-employed, here's what replacement rates (out of work income as a share of in work income) currently look like - massive increases for employees & barely any chnage for self-employed 1/n

86% of employees now have at least 80% of their net income replaced when out of work. Was 10% before recent covid measures. Self-employed have seen some increase in the social safety net via increases in generosity of universal credit, but small in comparison 2/n

Self-employed are more exposed to falls in work - 22% of the self-employed (comapred to 17% of employees) work in sectors that are mostly shut as a result of social distancing measures. A further 9% may need to disrupt their work to provide childcare.3/n

Read 6 tweets

Helen Miller

@HelenMiller_IFS

9 Jul 19

We’ve been using tax records to learn about the self-employed - an interesting group because they've been fastest growing part of workforce since early 2000s. Here’s what we now know 1/n (tons more here: ifs.org.uk/publications/1…)

More people try self-employment than aggregate numbers suggest – annual growth in sole traders results from huge entry & exit. Between 2011-2015, ~2.4 million sole traders operated each year but ~6m people tried self-employed at some point. Self employed are not a fixed group 2/n

Huge ‘churn’ in the self-employed population reflects fact that most sole trader businesses close quickly: 20% within a year; 60% by year 5. 25% of self-employed combine business & employment activity but this share has not changed over time 3/n

Read 11 tweets

Helen Miller

@HelenMiller_IFS

23 Oct 18

@TaxJusticeNet

There's been some discussion of this paper recently (because @TaxJusticeNet are, understandably, using estimates suggesting foreign MNEs avoid >50% of UK tax). I've read recently so here's a thread on my take of main issues. 1/

Paper uses UK corporate tax records matched to company accounts to ask how much tax MNEs avoid. Great question, cool data. (Can see what's on UK corp tax form here assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…) 2/

Paper matches UK subsidiaries of foreign MNEs (with positive trading turnover & no further subsidiaries) to comparable domestic UK standalones (i.e. 2 groups look the same except former are part of MNE group). Method will miss largest MNEs (no comparable domestics) 3/

Read 9 tweets

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