Thread by @jeremyduda

The @ArizonaIRC is about to begin today's meeting. They're expecting (or at least hoping) to approve their congressional and legislative draft maps today. Here's the agenda, which has a link where you can tune in. irc.az.gov/sites/default/…

They've got another meeting scheduled to begin tomorrow at 8am, which doesn't necessarily fill me with hope that they'll finish today. I'm told the meeting was scheduled mainly as a precaution, just in case it's necessary.

Here we go. Meeting has been called to order.

The biggest issue will be what they do with the southern Arizona legislative districts, which have been a source of dispute between the commission's Republicans and Democrats.

The southern AZ legislative districts as they're drawn on the last draft map the IRC approved are backed by the Southern Arizona Leadership Council, but were drawn by a Pima County GOP official. azmirror.com/2021/10/27/pim…

At the IRC's last meeting on Tuesday, Commissioners Lerner (D) and Mehl (R) proposed some changes to the southern Arizona portion of the legislative map azmirror.com/2021/10/26/red…

The legal team is discussing a meeting with the Navajo Nation, which has issues with the way Native American citizen voting age population has been counted. They've changed from past practice of only counting people who ID on census as non-Hispanic, one-race Native American.

The tribe wants to determine on-reservation Native American population vs off-reservation

Counsel Brett Johnson says the tribe has long raised issues with the official census count (the Navajo believe there was an undercount) but that the IRC is obligated by law to use census numbers

Here comes the main event - discussion and decisions on draft maps, starting with the legislative districts

They've got three new LD draft maps. Mehl notes that 8.0 is still in play as well, giving them a fourth.

LD test map 9.0 incorporates a host of changes that Lerner proposed on Tuesday. Coolidge moves into LD17, Vail into LD19, Tanque Verde into LD18 and Davis-Monthan AFB into LD21.

This map would eliminate SALC's goal of creating at least one Republican district wholly or mostly contained in Pima County. LD17 would go from strong R to D-leaning competitive.

LD test map 9.1 moves Flowing Wells and Tucson Estates into LD16, as do Oracle, San Manuel and Mammoth, LD17 takes in Red Rock, Davis-Monthan into LD21, Quail Creek, Amado and Tubac into LD19. Coolidge also goes into LD16, LD7 takes in part of Apache Junction.

LD test map 9.2 is basically 9.1, but with the Oracle/Mammoth/San Manuel portion of Pinal County going back into LD7 from LD16

They're going into executive session to get advice from legal counsel on Voting Rights Act compliance

The IRC is coming back into open session

They're diving back into the legislative maps

Lerner wants to start with LD map 9.0, which has the changes she suggested on Tuesday

The biggest difference between 9.0 and other maps is LD17, she says. It respects communities of interest and natural boundaries, is more compact and is very competitive, Lerner says.

LD17 in this map would put Marana and Oro Valley with SaddleBrooke, the Catalina Foothills and Casas Adobes

Lerner says this version of LD17 would also keep the Amphi school district together, as the district requested in a recent letter. The IRC has put a high premium on school districts as communities of interest.

Lerner notes that 9.0 uses the Catalinas as a natural boundary, and reminds her colleagues that they split LD11 in Maricopa County for similar reasons related to South Mountain

Lerner keeps saying "we" support this map. The other person in the "we" is fellow Dem Commissioner Derrick Watchman.

Mehl says he still thinks 8.0 is the best LD map, but that 9.2 is a better compromise than 9.0, says it splits fewer communities of interest

Mehl says the 8.0/9.2 version of LD17 is a district based on the "suburban ring around Tucson." Tanque Verde has refused to incorporate into Tucson, he says, and takes similar stands on public policy issues as Marana and Oro Valley.

LD17 is outside the range that the IRC considers competitive in map 9.2, but Mehl says it's underpopulated and neighboring LD18 is overpopulated, so in the final mapping phase they can make changes that'll make LD17 more competitive

Lerner counters that Tanque Verde is nearly an hour from Marana, says there's no way to avoid such distances in rural districts, but this is an urban district that shouldn't be so spread out

Lerner says the Oro Valley City Council wants to be united with Casas Adobes, same with Marana school district

Neuberg says she's inclined to support 9.2, which Mehl prefers, as a compromise map. But she wants consensus and wants to avoid being the deciding vote.

Lerner says LD17 on 9.2 bypasses Casas Adobes to take in Tanque Verde, against the wishes of local officials. "Just to be honest," she says, LD17 was drawn for partisan advantage.

Neuberg says right-of-center communities in the Tucson area should have the opportunity to elect representation they support

Mehl says there are 4 urban districts in Tucson area, and 3 lean heavily toward Dems

Mehl motions to adopt map 9.2, York seconds. Mehl and York vote yes, Lerner and Watchman vote no, Neuberg abtains.

Now Lerner motioned to adopt 9.0, Watchman seconds. Exact opposite of last time. Dems vote yes, Republicans vote no, Neuberg once again abstains.

Neuberg reiterates that she prefers 9.2. But, she says “I’d love to see a consensus starting point. If not, I will vote... We have the ability today to set such an example for the state and for the public on how to engage in compromise and discourse.”

They're talking about making changes to create a potential 9.3 map. Lerner doesn't want to budge on carving Tanque Verde off of LD17, and wants the district to be more competitive.

Lerner: “I’m all for compromise. I just don’t know how we get to that piece.”

Mehl questions why Lerner isn't bother that other urban Tucson districts are competitive. They could expand Cochise-based LD19 into Tucson to make other LDs more competitive, he says, "But it would be an absurd map.”

Lerner says drawing districts for partisan outcomes isn't one of the constitutional criteria, competitiveness is

York says the overall Tucson map is more competitive with LD17 being less competitive, notes that the Tucson area is still a 3-1 split between Ds and Rs.

Neuberg is basically telling Lerner and Watchman to figure something out quickly. She says there aren't enough votes to pass 9.0 but there are for 9.2. "I'll give you one minute to think about it."

Lerner says a 50-50 LD17 gives Republicans an opportunity to elect their choice of representative

York: “The community becomes less competitive because we continue to dilute the voice of the Republican Party out of the ability to elect a candidate of choice.”

Neuberg asks for a motion, Mehl motions to adopt 9.2

Neuberg is a yes. The IRC has adopted map 9.2 as a new starting point on a 3-2 vote.

Mehl asks if they're ready to adopt 9.2 as a final draft map. Now that they've got a new starting point, Lerner says she wants to put some thought into possible changes. Neuberg wants to give the commissioners some time to think about this.

Neuberg emphasizes that they have time to make changes after approving the draft map and getting public input. “Whatever draft map we approve, it is just that -- a draft.”

Mehl reiterates his comment that Lerner isn't bothered by noncompetitive Dem districts elsewhere in Tucson area. She counters that there are plenty of ultra-Republican LDs in Maricopa, rural AZ. “We have the same issues all across the state. ... It goes both ways."

York says likeminded people tend to congregate together, and there's going to be political extremes no matter what. “To try to balance those out in a way that makes competitiveness work I don’t see as a real end result for our commission.”

If the IRC is going to worry about protecting interests of right-of-center people in Tucson, Lerner says they need to so the same with left-of-center folks elsewhere in the state. Neuberg agrees, “Absolutely. That’s all about protecting communities of interest."

Neuberg proposes a 10-minute break so the mapping team can work on some ideas

We're back from lunch and back in open session. Mapping consultants are going to lay out some possible changes to the legislative map.

Mapping consultant Brian Kingery says they could move the northern part of LD18 to LD17, moving about 9600 people and making LD17 slightly more competitive, but still outside the range that the IRC considers competitive

Neuberg says it doesn't make sense to spend much time on something that won't make a substantive change. “I don’t think that’s going to solve Commissioner Lerner’s concerns.”

Lerner wants to reconsider the Latino Coalition's proposal to include predominantly Hispanic border areas in Cochise to LD21, which gets you a pretty wild looking district

This move around large numbers of people, so they're trying to figure out how to balance out the population that LD19 would lose

Mehl says he'd be open to considering doing this and moving LD19 further into the Davis-Monthan area to balance out the population, but wants to get public input on this in draft map form first. He doesn't want to do this today.

Lerner wants the mapping team to put this on a map today so they can look at it

Mapping consultant Mark Flahan says it'll take two hours to do this

Lerner suggests moving Vail into LD19, which Mehl opposes, saying Vail doesn't want to be with Cochise. Lerner counters that they've ignored the desires of other communities, like Casas Adobes. “Somewhere we have to make a compromise on communities.”

Lerner: “I’m trying to find some compromise here. And if every suggestion is going to be we can’t do that, I don’t see how we can move forward.”

Neuberg wants to know if Lerner can be brought on board by the end of the day with some smaller changes. “Are we moving forward toward compromise?” Lerner says that's her goal.

“There's a higher value in the five of us being able to agree on a draft," Neuberg says. This time, she sounds like she's sending a message to Mehl that she's willing to make concessions to Lerner that he opposes if it'll get them to a 5-0 vote.

There also sounded like there was a message for Lerner that Neuberg will entertain her ideas, but only if there's a real chance she'll vote for this map

Following a host of proposed changes in Maricopa County, they're going to take a 30-minute break, then move on to the congressional map

We're back from break. They're moving on to the congressional map with a couple of options.

On CD test map 7.0, CD3 (the successor to @RubenGallego's district) moves further to the north and west

CD3 would take in part of Peoria and go up to Thunderbird Road to the north

The changes bring it from 54% Hispanic citizen voting age population (CVAP) to 50%

Other changes to the CD map 7.0 makes CD8 (@DebbieLesko) pretty competitive. It would have just a 4.1% Republican advantage.

Here's CD test map 7.1, which is pretty similar to 7.0

They’re back in executive session to discuss Voting Rights Act compliance on the congressional maps

We're back again from executive session

Lerner wants to adopt map 7.1, says the population is balanced, it's competitive and it addresses some of the Latino Coalition's concerns

York says the new map with the new boundaries for CD3 is more amenable to the requirements of the Voting Rights Act. Neuberg likes it too.

Mehl doesn't like the changes to CD3, but says "we're close enough on this map" to move forward

Neuberg says she wants changes too, but those can happen further down the road. She wants to address some of the changes @TucsonRomero wants to see regarding which district @uarizona and the surrounding area are in.

Watchman says CD map 7.1 is a good compromise. Sounds like we've got a 5-0 vote coming, with most if not all of the commissioners already eying changes they'd like to see.

We've got a draft map! On a 5-0 vote, the @ArizonaIRC approves CD test map 7.1 as the official congressional draft map.

Neuberg: “We can now turn to the legislative districts, which I’m sure will go just as smoothly.”

LD test map 10.0

LD test map 10.1 incorporates the changes in the Phoenix area from 10.0, and recreates the Latino Coalition LD21 proposal along the border, with LD19 taking up part of the Davis-Monthan AFB area to make up the population difference.

LD test map 10.2 keeps the 10.0 Maricopa changes and the Latino Coalition's LD21, but moves Vail from LD17 to LD19, moves part of Casas Adobes from LD18 into LD17, and moves LD19 into more of the Davis-Monthan area that was in LD21.

Mapping consultant Doug Johnson says LD17 becomes competitive under 10.2. It was a 9.9% R advantage, now it's 5.4%. The IRC considers anything within 7% to be competitive.

Neuberg wants discussion of the maps before anyone makes a motion to adopt any of them

Mehl says he can agree to southern AZ portion of 10.1. with LD21 taking in the border area of Cochise County, as long as it keeps the Maricopa County portion of 9.2 (the last LD map they approved), but not 10.2 because it takes Vail out of LD17.

Lerner says southern Arizona in 10.1 is a nonstarter for her because of LD17 and Casas Adobes

And the Maricopa County portion of 9.2 is a nonstarter for Lerner because it doesn't make changes she wants to see in Sunnyslope and nearby areas

York says they should approve draft maps without the Sunnyslope changes and go to the public to see what people who live there want

Lerner has expressed a willingness to accept the pre-existing plan for southern Arizona in LD map 9.2 if she gets the changes that were proposed to Maricopa County in 10.0

Neuberg says if one side gets what they want in Maricopa and the other gets what it wants in southern AZ, and they commit to working together on changes, "That would be remarkable."

“I don’t know how to say strongly enough that we don’t like this, but we will vote for this," Mehl says.

“We’re right there with you," Lerner responds.

That would be LD map 10.0, which makes Lerner's proposed changes to Maricopa County, leaves 9.2 intact in southern Arizona.

It's unanimous. The @ArizonaIRC has approved LD test map 10.0 as the official legislative draft map, with the caveat that everyone wants to see major changes.

I didn't expect this to wrap up before the Cardinals game starts, but it looks like we'll get there

Wait! There's one more thing to disagree about. Do they renumber Prescott's district as LD1 now or later? It's tradition and now required by law.

IRC legal counsel Roy Herrera recommends waiting. “So will you call Senator @FannKfann?” Mehl jokes. “I definitely will not be calling Senator Fann," Herrera, a Dem, jokes back.

The IRC's next meeting will be its first public hearing on the draft maps on Nov. 6. The Arizona Constitution requires 30 days of public comment on the draft maps, then they'll come back and make changes before approving final maps.

We're adjourned. It's been fun, everyone. See you at the public hearings.