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David Henig Profile picture
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29 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
This is important. With the UK government veering between disinterested and hostile towards the EU, business will need to try its best to influence the many matters which will inevitably affect them. The US example is a decent one. ft.com/content/6b4b90…
It again raises the question of what is in the best interests of the UK, a minimal and hostile relationship with the EU driven by those who regard the bloc as a historical abomination or worse, or something more constructive based on our interests. Which will still never be easy.
The fact is the EU and member states do not care much about third countries, but third countries have to care about the EU to the extent of trade and other interdependencies, regulatory power, and global issues. Tough but essential to try to lobby and influence.
We're fortunate in still having some pretty good representatives outside of government in Brussels - would be good to see them coming together under one umbrella as Team UK. Who knows, at least for a time the EU might be relieved to deal with non-hostile Brits.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
30 Oct
Back to basics. Trade agreement commitments are vague because they have to be to cover complex trade. They rely on trust between parties. Dispute settlement clauses are also therefore useless because the answer to distrust is political not legal.
For how many more years will UK government, politics, media fail to understand that the fundamental of our relationship with the EU is not words on paper but trust between parties they will broadly be implemented?

And if they aren't, what is left is power dynamics.
Shared international institutions like the ECJ put more substance into relations, though ultimately still rely on trust and the backup of interests and power relations. But irrelevant for the UK as we chose not to have shared institutions with the EU.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
29 Oct
So many years of so many bizarre French efforts to stop EU negotiations with third countries, any third country really not just the UK, that this isn't a surprise. But it is a problem for the EU that a France with leadership aspirations behaves in this way.
The EU will attempt as ever to ignore the French undermining third country relationships. But it is a serious embarrassment given Macron is supposed to be the moderate.
Exact meaning to be considered in the context of precedent and associated offences. As it would be and is for the UK government.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
29 Oct
At least Scotland isn't independent yet so we're not completely surrounded.
On balance Ireland siding with France and the UK with Poland just made everything worse. Especially as ultimately Poland won't help us, enough of their own issues.

Not necessarily enthusiastic backing though. And on such subtleties does a third country which wants to achieve something in Brussels rely.
Read 17 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
29 Oct
I love* the way the Brexit ultras are now saying that a row over fishing with France proves we're right to try and start a trade war over the ECJ role in the Northern Ireland protocol...

* - I lied. I don't love it at all.
We had to deal with French political showboating as EU members, and we'll have to deal with it outside (as they will ours). C'est la vie, that's just the way it goes.

On balance it would be best not to turn every fishing boat incident into a potential trade war. Interests.
Oh, and can we skip the 'dispute settlement in trade deals' stuff that I hear across the Brexit / remain aisle. That's a formality rarely used. It ultimately always comes down to the political and official relationships, so better work on those.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
28 Oct
Do I really have to do another set of tweets tomorrow about the stupidity and futility of a government not entirely united and particularly untrusted threatening a trade war with our nearest large economy and a diplomatic incident with our self declared closest ally? Really?
Just. So. Tedious. And damaging. Got to say my patriotism doesn't extend to trashing my own country, but perhaps that's where I'm getting it wrong.

Oh, and that's another UK hosted summit to be overshadowed by our threats towards others.

Diplomacy. Something we used to do.
There is a better way to behave towards neighbours that threaten to damage yourself if they don't do what you want. Ain't a Brexit thing. Just common sense. Build relationships rather than trashing them. And look after fragile peace in your own country.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
28 Oct
Important that the government does seriously consider what would happen to us in a trade war with the EU.
Important to remember though that the UK government really doesn't want to invoke Article 16, and it is an article of faith to them that being seen to be tough is necessary to get what we want from the EU.

Given the potential consequences of triggering Article 16 include a trade war with the EU and diplomatic conflict with the US we aren't in a strong position. Though I suspect government ministers may not say as much.
Read 8 tweets

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