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David Henig Profile picture
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29 Oct, 17 tweets, 5 min read
At least Scotland isn't independent yet so we're not completely surrounded.
On balance Ireland siding with France and the UK with Poland just made everything worse. Especially as ultimately Poland won't help us, enough of their own issues.

Not necessarily enthusiastic backing though. And on such subtleties does a third country which wants to achieve something in Brussels rely.
The parents are back home. Long term observers of France in the EU will have noted their tendency shared with the UK of performative outbursts brought on possibly by the same sense of superiority.

Yes, I'm as popular in Paris as in London.
An entertaining alternate history is to imagine France voting to leave the EU and how they and the UK would have behaved in such a role reversal...
Certainly perfect normal for France to say that a third country is not respecting an agreement and action must be taken. Just like the UK threatening the EU, it is almost a daily occurrence.
Wearily we must return to the latest UK government efforts to threaten the EU, which as I've suggested before bear no resemblance to the only serious negotiation, within the UK government, as to whether it is deal or no deal.
Reminder. This is not going to happen except at the cost of the Withdrawal Agreement and TCA. Even after a trade war. And even the threat creates all manner of uncertainty, economic and political. We wait (again...).
Playing toy soldiers, but with real livelihoods at stake. Real negotiators resolve issues, not set unrealistic red lines and cry dispute settlement if the other side is mean.

If you have to go to dispute settlement you failed.
Meanwhile, again, imagine that potential inward investor... "so, UK, are you going to launch a trade war with your nearest trade partner?" "Yes, unless they change their entire negotiating position of 5 years" "Ok, good luck, bye"
Escalating. Inevitable though. I suspect no coincidence that this is all coming out just before COP and G20 when the PM is going to vulnerable to pressure. Any cool UK heads out there able to engineer a climbdown while claiming victory?
Suspect little patience among Member States for yet more Brexit.
Might be a good time to ask about the UK government's end game over the Northern Ireland protocol, purism or compromise?
EU now resuming the talk of suspension of the trade deal. And so we go again, UK threats based on red lines upon which no deal possible, EU with minimal pragmatic movement, Northern Ireland caught in the middle.
Text.
Key. The main limitation to a post-Brexit Northern Ireland compromise is a UK government that doesn't see the need to suggest a compromise is needed, with the EU or with its own economy (though eventually it does with the latter).
Few of Johnson's salesmanship successes have been better than his ability to always concede on talks with the EU while persuading Brexit ultras he always wins.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
30 Oct
Back to basics. Trade agreement commitments are vague because they have to be to cover complex trade. They rely on trust between parties. Dispute settlement clauses are also therefore useless because the answer to distrust is political not legal.
For how many more years will UK government, politics, media fail to understand that the fundamental of our relationship with the EU is not words on paper but trust between parties they will broadly be implemented?

And if they aren't, what is left is power dynamics.
Shared international institutions like the ECJ put more substance into relations, though ultimately still rely on trust and the backup of interests and power relations. But irrelevant for the UK as we chose not to have shared institutions with the EU.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
29 Oct
So many years of so many bizarre French efforts to stop EU negotiations with third countries, any third country really not just the UK, that this isn't a surprise. But it is a problem for the EU that a France with leadership aspirations behaves in this way.
The EU will attempt as ever to ignore the French undermining third country relationships. But it is a serious embarrassment given Macron is supposed to be the moderate.
Exact meaning to be considered in the context of precedent and associated offences. As it would be and is for the UK government.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
29 Oct
I love* the way the Brexit ultras are now saying that a row over fishing with France proves we're right to try and start a trade war over the ECJ role in the Northern Ireland protocol...

* - I lied. I don't love it at all.
We had to deal with French political showboating as EU members, and we'll have to deal with it outside (as they will ours). C'est la vie, that's just the way it goes.

On balance it would be best not to turn every fishing boat incident into a potential trade war. Interests.
Oh, and can we skip the 'dispute settlement in trade deals' stuff that I hear across the Brexit / remain aisle. That's a formality rarely used. It ultimately always comes down to the political and official relationships, so better work on those.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
29 Oct
This is important. With the UK government veering between disinterested and hostile towards the EU, business will need to try its best to influence the many matters which will inevitably affect them. The US example is a decent one. ft.com/content/6b4b90…
It again raises the question of what is in the best interests of the UK, a minimal and hostile relationship with the EU driven by those who regard the bloc as a historical abomination or worse, or something more constructive based on our interests. Which will still never be easy.
The fact is the EU and member states do not care much about third countries, but third countries have to care about the EU to the extent of trade and other interdependencies, regulatory power, and global issues. Tough but essential to try to lobby and influence.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
28 Oct
Do I really have to do another set of tweets tomorrow about the stupidity and futility of a government not entirely united and particularly untrusted threatening a trade war with our nearest large economy and a diplomatic incident with our self declared closest ally? Really?
Just. So. Tedious. And damaging. Got to say my patriotism doesn't extend to trashing my own country, but perhaps that's where I'm getting it wrong.

Oh, and that's another UK hosted summit to be overshadowed by our threats towards others.

Diplomacy. Something we used to do.
There is a better way to behave towards neighbours that threaten to damage yourself if they don't do what you want. Ain't a Brexit thing. Just common sense. Build relationships rather than trashing them. And look after fragile peace in your own country.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
28 Oct
Important that the government does seriously consider what would happen to us in a trade war with the EU.
Important to remember though that the UK government really doesn't want to invoke Article 16, and it is an article of faith to them that being seen to be tough is necessary to get what we want from the EU.

Given the potential consequences of triggering Article 16 include a trade war with the EU and diplomatic conflict with the US we aren't in a strong position. Though I suspect government ministers may not say as much.
Read 8 tweets

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