1 of 10/ We badly need a new a narrative around climate and energy, if the goal is to have reliable, affordable energy the world needs with less CO2. The current “Oil is Evil and the New Tobacco” playbook, IMO, is driving a worst of all worlds outcome: Higher prices, Same CO2.
2/ Believing that we will have less CO2 if we could simply force oil companies to address “Scope 3” emissions is a fairy tale. You probably can succeed in killing the western oil industry as has happened with US coal. But the CAPEX, jobs, and CO2 will only shift to other regions.
3/ Does anyone know what year global Coal production peaked before its rapid decline following the demise of the Appalachia coal industry? This is of course a trick question, as it hasn’t happened yet. The jobs and CAPEX simply shifted to China and India.
4/ But now some political leaders in Canada and the US want to repeat that mistake with crude oil and natural gas? At least in Coal, there are many viable power gen alternatives that are cleaner and similarly (or less) expensive than coal. That is not true with transport fuels.
5/ Why would the US and Canada not want to maximize local oil supply while taking steps to reduce oil-based transport demand. Banning SUVs + reforming CAFE will do far more than any policy directed at local oil supply or even what look like poorly designed EV tax credits.
6/ What should we hold oil companies accountable for? Scope 1 and 2 emissions and in particular methane, the latter of which has become a highly solvable problem and is perhaps the most tangible step industry can take today to limiting future warming.
7/ Oil companies don’t have “customers”, certainly not in any commonly used sense of the word. Energy is not something we “choose”. It is life: Air, Water, Energy. Policies that emphasize limiting energy supply are doomed to fail. They are fundamentally insane.
8/ The ideologically narrow narratives being espoused about the challenge of addressing climate while ensuring reliable and affordable energy does not help. If you leave it to one side of the aisle (in the US), you will only get solutions from that vantage point. #Sad
9/ The lack of diverse voices with actual solutions is unfortunate. For everyone that dunks on bad progressive policies, there is an urgent need to provide solutions about what you are actually for…and beyond “markets”, which on their own don’t solve CO2.
10/ None of this should be construed as defending fossil fuels. Rather I am defending every person’s right to reliable and affordable energy, which, at this time, overwhelmingly comes from fossil fuels. Air, water, energy.
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1 of 8/ Energy Transition public policy and ESG pressures - the best thing going for the oil & gas sector
The unfolding energy crisis is unlike any prior. Normal investor angst about poor ROCE have been turbo-charged with a “worst of all worlds” public policy and ESG backdrop.
2/ We are not devoid of low-cost oil or nat gas resources, as we were in 2003-2010. But exactly no one wants higher CAPEX. Traditional and ESG investors, climate activists, and US/Canada/EU governments all argue for limiting oil & gas CAPEX.
3/ Incredibly, important media outlets are expressing surprise in their headlines when leading banking firms express a willingness to stick with oil & gas clients. Pressure is mounting to move beyond Coal and include Oil & Gas on the “taboo for bankers” list.
1 of 11/ Energy lies, damn lies, and politicians...Part 1.
This is a non-partisan look at energy sector falsehoods, mis-truths, and outright lies told by politicians, industry participants, environmentalists, and Wall Street analysts.
2/ ENERGY LIE: Gasoline prices are high due to “price gouging” and “manipulation” by oil companies (implication: by Big Oil).
3/ TRUTH: This has been investigated many times over many decades and is simply false, nevermind the times WTI has o/p gas w/o anyone decrying low margins. Will Ds go after the c-store chains that actually set local gas px? Big Oil owns only a small % of gas stations in the USA.
The weekend noise around OPEC+ highlights the critical importance of a healthy N. America oil & gas industry, without which the world is unlikely to alleviate energy poverty while also addressing climate change. Some questions:
2/ Why block/impede North America oil pipelines/infrastructure while begging OPEC+ for more supply? Canada is our friend and a pretty great country. Can’t say the same for some other parts of the world.
3/ Why discourage development of Canada’s oil sands or US shale while encouraging Saudi, UAE, Iraq, and Russia (?!?!?) to boost its output? And Iran might get to return but Canada pipes need to be blocked? WTF?
1 of 6/ Excellent essay by @JasonBordoff. In my words, killing Big Oil does not kill society’s desire to drive, fly, trade, conduct business, and aspire for middle class+ lifestyles.
2/ A few Qs: Do climate activists really want a world where OPEC+ gains market share? Why deter Canadian oil supply but not Iranian or Russian supply? Why not encourage governments to take serious steps to enforce ACTUAL mpg gains (hint: CAFE hasn’t worked)?
3/ Big Oil’s biggest issue is insufficient profitability over the past decade and it isn’t even that Big anymore at <3% of S&P. Medium Oil may be more accurate? Climate activism is currently aligned with traditional shareholders that want less CAPEX and more dividends. Thank you.
1 of 8/ ROCE and the Path Back for Old Energy, Part 3
An Easter weekend continuation of my Saturday thread series on the potential for improved ROCE from Old Energy. I focus on what is possible for the well-run…not what we all already know is bad about the laggards.
2/ In the pre-super cycle decade of 1991-2000, 16 companies generated 10%+ ROCE, including 13 integrateds (BP, AN, ARC, CHV ,TX, XON, MOB, MRO, OXY, P, REP, STO, TOT), 2 E&Ps (EOG, SU), and 1 service (SLB). The Sweet 16 averaged a 17% ROCE. Legacy tickers used, in memorium.
3/ Of the pre-super cycle good ROCE-ers, 11 generated positive operating free cash flow (cash flow from ops less CAPEX). The 5 that didn’t — OXY, P, STO, EOG, and SU — were near break-even. Those 5 show that while positive FCF is helpful, it is not a prerequisite to good ROCE.
1 of 10/ ROCE vs Well IRRs and the Path Back for Old Energy
Since the shale revolution, there is a massive disconnect between promised well-level IRRs and actual, corporate-level returns on capital employed (ROCE) for the oil industry.
2/ Oil producers promised 30%-50%+ well IRRs at seemingly conservative oil prices (<$50/bbl). Over the previous 5 and 10 years, WTI averaged $51 and $68/bbl. Corresponding median ROCE for Old Energy averaged +0.6% and 3.9%. What the heck!?!
3/ Why the crazy big gap? It appears that numerous ongoing costs were not reconciled including for acreage, infrastructure, less successful drilling, DUC builds, etc. Why ignore so many costs? I have no explanation.