Nifty or Banknifty for option selling? 🧵

There are times when i have traded exclusively in bnf for atleast a couple of yrs, when the weeklies got introduced.

Stopped trading in it for an yr when nf weekly got introduced & bnf started having price freeze issues on expiry days.
Idea has always been to master just one index.

Before the introduction of bnf weeklies, there was no other choice than nf monthly options. Bnf monthly didn't have good liquidity as compared to nf at that time.

Even next month nf options had better liquidity than bnf options.
But now the liquidity is not an issue in any of the index. Option prices don't freeze in bnf anymore.

Currently I'm flexible enough to trade in both, many a times switching from one to another in intraday itself.

Have also tried cross hedging them, but the results were varied.
Not limiting to one index increases the opportunities manifold.

It is a misconception that bnf is only wild which is why it gives better premiums. Nf sometimes can be a beast in itself & give better directional moves or better falling premiums to write specially during high vix.
So if you are stuck with one index, i would suggest to not completely ignore the other index.

Better opportunities keep coming if we expand our horizon.

| would still not look at stock options though because of liquidity issues, but with indices there isn't a problem at all.
It would make a lot of difference if finnifty gets some liquidity as well. And having a different expiry day can be a game changer for indian option market.

But until that happens or not, keep looking at both the indices for the best opportunities in option selling.
It sounds tough when one is unable to properly track one index. But there are days when trading in one particular index is useless.

So try to objectively find which one is currently giving better moves best suited for your strategies.

No index gives smooth ride each time.

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More from @SarangSood

7 Aug
SURVIVORSHIP BIAS

Survivorship bias is the tendency to analyze the strategies that performed exceptionally well and ignore all those that didn’t reach our criteria. We have an inclination towards focusing on the survivors, even if they survived out of luck rather than viability.
So basically we are testing our ideas on an incomplete data. The missing data may conceal losing trades or winning trades, causing us to deploy a strategy which we shouldn't or vice versa. Backtest results with this bias will not represent the true picture.
So if we have a backtested strategy with SL on a 5 min time frame (or even 1 min for that matter), it may give a totally different outlook to the actual result. The period in between which is not taken into account can give vicious price movement hitting the SL multiple times.
Read 10 tweets
17 Jul
FIRST ACCOUNT OF OPTIONS

We have this perception that Options are relatively new trading instruments, but they actually go back to the times before Christ was born. Getting to know the origins of this fascinating trading instrument can help us appreciate the depth of it.

1/
The very first account of options was mentioned in Aristotle's book named "Politics", published in 332 B.C. That's how far back humans have used the concept of buying the rights to an asset without necessarily buying the asset itself.

2/
Aristotle mentioned a man named Thales of Miletus who was a great astronomer, philosopher and mathematician. Thales was one of the seven sages of ancient greece. By observing the stars and weather patterns, he predicted a huge olive harvest in the year that follows.

3/
Read 10 tweets
18 Jun
A THREAD

Topic: HOW TO TRADE IN RISING PREMIUMS SCENARIO

Option sellers specially Straddle sellers feel that rising premiums give them excellent opportunity to make easy money. So what they are seeing is the theta aspect of options & ignoring the delta/gamma/vega forces.

1/
With rising premiums come high delta moves. There is a reason why premiums are all increasing up in the first place. High uncertainty & fear is what's controlling the markets during such times. So a volatile 200 point move in nifty is always on the cards.

2/
Adjusting during such delta moves involves high slippages. Such costs go in our system & are irrecoverable. So if the ATM straddle is around 400 & after 200 point downmove, the next straddle is at 450 & the loss is not just 50points but compounded much more.

3/
Read 16 tweets
4 Jun
Understanding HIGH & LOW VIX

VIX at 16: If you check today's IV behaviour, they were not spiking much even with decent delta move in BNF. The movement was subtle, giving some time to adjust. So someone having good adjustment mechanism can stay in the game longer.

1/
VIX at 20: The same delta move will be more fierce, coupled with rise in premiums. When premiums rise with movement, then the adjustment cost increases exponentially. The premiums can fall back at EOD, but the damage is done if caught in the spike.

2/
After talking to few traders, their backtest result was in favor of high VIX of 2020, rather than 2017-19. The key flaw in the backtest were the adjustments which are not easy to calculate. Combination of high theta & fixed SL during high VIX, the IV crush is cashed at EOD.

3/
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29 May
CHRONOLOGY OF SUCCESSFUL TRADING

• Learn basics of trading but no breakthrough for many months
• Find a good strategy or trading idea
• Implement that idea with some capital
• Start adding more capital because of good returns
• Start making decent returns for few months

1/
• Lose all previous month returns in a week
• Hault trading for some days
• Go back to the drawing board & improve the strategy
• Start again with 2nd step
• Repeat for n number of cycles (n depends solely on a trader's skill & huslte)
• Create a decent trading career.

2/
With experience the trader will start retaining the profits, and stop giving it all away during drawdowns. A stage comes when drawdowns are minimal & only trading opportunities are cashed in. This is because the trader finds an optimum balance between risk & good returns.

3/
Read 5 tweets
23 May
Indeed Pathik bhai, it's the most dangerous scenario for any kind of option writer. The way i handle it is by converting a straddle/strangle into ratio spreads which i have explained in the past in the below tweets. Usually it's only one side where premiums are spiking. +
So we need to stay away from that side & convert our position to the opposite side in ratios.

Many go the 920 straddle way, that is exiting the losing leg & running the profit one. The only problem with that is that by doing that they have exited the non-directional realm +
& gone the directional way. So if market reverts then they have no way to hide. So it's kind of a hit or miss type of situation they get themselves in.

Curated below few of my past tweets on this subject & how i handled my position. +
Read 8 tweets

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