So, too, is literally every other aspect of the planetary crisis.
Speed is everything.
Also, it's not just that actions become, of necessity, faster and more disruptive.
It's also that increasingly massive resources must be devoted to ruggedizing in the face of impacts, and ever-greater discontinuities shake society as people and institutions scramble to keep up.
(These facts, given the delay we've already experienced, are why we are surrounded carbon bubbles, brittleness bubbles and expertise bubbles.)
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Thinking tonight of the many 1000s of awesome, dedicated, tough (and often funny!) advocates for the human future on planet Earth I have met over 30 years of this work.
Bunch of fricking misfit geeks, wonks and rads —who may have actually staved off human extinction.
Respect.
Humanity owes a vast, unpayable debt to the good, kind people who transformed themselves thru love & commitment from unremarkable citizens, scientists, back-to-the-landers, artists, engineers, parents & professors into the thin edge of the wedge that may turned us from disaster.
Even today, we fail to understand what these folks did for us all, and our kids, and their kids, and generations stretching out into the vastness of time.
Noting that the structure of a human system inclines it with great probability to a certain set of outcomes is not prediction, but observation.
The systems we've created for climate politics, policy and diplomacy incline towards seriously insufficient near-term outcomes, and thus — because of the inevitability of action in response to ecological imperatives — to radically disruptive medium-term results.
Massive actions in response to the planetary crisis are not a matter of whether, but when.
When, however, changes dramatically what the nature of the actions taken ends up being.
On a planet where people are just growing used to wild change — endless droughts, massive storms, smoke-orange skies, random flash floods, heat domes and so on — the biggest shifting baseline seems to be our expectations of climate diplomacy.
The future planet we appear to be ready to agree to live on — if we get what is being framed as a *successful* COP — was understood to be an appallingly bad outcome just 30 years ago... a tragedy for future generations, to be avoided at all costs.
I am all about getting the wins we can, and revving up for the Snap Forward. Winning is a spectrum, here, and there are multiple paths to victory.
Our climate debate, however, wanders amidst the absurd and slightly surreal these days.