60% of IPCC authors think we're headed for 3ºC warming.
My sense:
1.5º is barely even within possibility, and certainly extremely likely.
2º is possible, requires massive shifts in climate politics, business and finance... and luck.
2.5º is doable with rapid, spiky action.
My sense:
1.5º is barely even within possibility, and certainly extremely likely.
2º is possible, requires massive shifts in climate politics, business and finance... and luck.
2.5º is doable with rapid, spiky action.
Informed intuition at work.
Nobody can predict the real outcome, given the sheer complexity of the human systems being modeled and the magnitude of discontinuity involved.
Which is why we need to fight as if the best outcome were still possible.
It might be.
Nobody can predict the real outcome, given the sheer complexity of the human systems being modeled and the magnitude of discontinuity involved.
Which is why we need to fight as if the best outcome were still possible.
It might be.
Also, we should see how much progress has been made.
Even if we still face catastrophic perils, I believe we no longer face an extinction-level event, or even an apocalyptic civilization collapse.
Our future is now *transapocalyptic*, which, while grim, is actually a huge win.
Even if we still face catastrophic perils, I believe we no longer face an extinction-level event, or even an apocalyptic civilization collapse.
Our future is now *transapocalyptic*, which, while grim, is actually a huge win.
Of course, with every lost day the calculus of climate becomes more intense...
https://twitter.com/AlexSteffen/status/1454944973443330052
Also worth remembering that *how* we tackle the sustainability imperative, how we ruggedize for the chaos already baked in, and how we prepare people for societal discontinuity are as critical to the future as the actual degree of warming we experience.
alexsteffen.substack.com/p/were-not-yet…
alexsteffen.substack.com/p/were-not-yet…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
