Week 8 Cash Lineup review!

Late news regarding Ridley/JWilliams shook things up before lock

Was pretty locked into the following lineup since Fri (which is rare for me):
Hurts, Swift, Hendo, Ridley, Godwin, Higgins, Hubbard, Arnold, WAS

Ended up here and didn’t feel great tbh
Once Williams was ruled out Swift joined Henderson as the only real must plays on the slate for me. Both guys were projecting so high from a usage standpoint and their pricing was more than manageable. Made it easy to set RB spots and move on.
Dan Arnold has been getting a lot of opportunity since he came to Jacksonville and wasn’t priced like that in Week 8. At $2800 he felt like a great salary saver at TE. Was most popular play. Same with WAS defense. Big DL mismatch against the Broncos OL. $2100 was easy choice
That’s right about where the easy decisions stopped for me. There was a ton of options in the WR spots that I considered and I was swapping things around almost frantically before lock. Was playing my biggest outlay in cash this week and hated that feeling when 10am PST hit
In order to fit Cooper Kupp, it seemed like I would have had to also play Van Jefferson. I didn’t love the option of jamming in three Rams this week (no real reasoning) so that eliminated Kupp from my pool pretty quickly. Godwin was the other guy I needed to decide on…
After the report on Gronk came out that he might be limited and with the historical tough matchup of Lattimore vs. Evans, Godwin felt like the safest WR on the slate. Dropped him into the Flex and knew I could go to Keenan Allen or Courtland Sutton if I needed it in late swap
This is where panic mode started. I haven’t touched on QB yet but I was pretty locked in to either Allen or Hurts all week. I had Hurts in with combos of Higgins, Pittman, Cooks, Juedy, Jefferson, etc… and it just didn’t feel great. Honestly forget all the combos I went thru
Ultimately I had a lineup where I was trying to figure out what to do with $900 and then I remembered Allen was exactly $900 more than Hurts. Dropped in Allen and then went down to Van Jefferson and the Red Sea parted for the beautiful secondary stack of AJ Brown and Pittman
I had a ton of Brown/Pittman correlations in my GPP lineups so I had plenty of exposure there. Knowing Julio was out and the Titans were in the game with the biggest total on the slate, helped me have confidence in AJB. I figured he wouldn’t be an extremely popular play for cash
So that part is mostly what made me nervous. Lock time hit and I had AJB + MPJ in 3 of my 4 main lineups including my cash one. Usually do not like that kind of overexposure but once again it felt really hectic and that’s just where things landed. Toss up a 🙏🏼 to the DFS gods
Hurts airballed and Josh Allen got there late so I didn’t have much of a sweat in the late games.

Cashed in all double ups and won 96% of H2Hs. Best cash week yet. On to Week 9!!
So hectic that I didn’t even remember I went CPatt over MPJ. Ok this thread is messy now. But my thinking on CPatt was he was a good play after Ridley news. Thought he would get plenty of usage (was ticking up after last week) and he has been really efficient this season

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More from @jonboybeats

18 Mar
EVERY SINGLE FIRST ROUND MATCHUP
(Friday Edition)

🚨🔥HERE WE GO🚨🔥

Huge shoutout to @matteise for the amazing work on the Tournament Guide! I have a lot of hours logged in that thing this week.

Trends, Analytics, Bets for all 16 matchups...

#showmethedata (THREAD)
7 Florida (PK) vs. 10 Va. Tech (135)

When 7sd has 2PT% & 3PT% ranked 100th or better they are 13-5 SU 12-6 ATS.

When 10sd has KenPom worse than 50 the 7sd is 13-3 SU 10-6 ATS.

When 7sd has Adj Def Eff ranked 40 or better they are 22-9 SU 18-12-1 ATS

THE PICK: Florida (PK)
3 Arkansas (-8.5) vs. 14 Colgate (161)

When 3sd favored <10 the OU is 7-18.

When 3sd has Adj Def Eff 15 or better they are 16-7 ATS & the OU is 4-19

When 3sd Adj Def Eff is .95 PPP or better they are 27-15-1 ATS & the OU is 15-28

THE PICK: ARKANSAS -8.5 & UNDER 161
Read 18 tweets

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