Whilst we ponder what might come out of COP26, I think it's a good time to ponder what if anything was achieved by far the biggest international summit there has ever been, the 1992 Rio Earth Summit? un.org/en/conferences…
Sure, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, under which auspices the COP talks are held were signed at Rio 1992, but we're now on the 26th, and have so far got nowhere. Unfortunately it doesn't look like much is going to be achieved at this one.
Except for all the #blahblahblah and signing bits of paper, was anything achieved at Rio 1992, which sent things in a different direction? I'm really struggling to think of anything, so please help me by naming something?
Again, sure lots of things were signed and pledged. However, over 50% of emissions in the whole of history have occurred since Rio 1992 and there have been massive declines in biodiversity. So it isn't clear what was achieved. ieep.eu/news/more-than…
Of course some will argue it could have been much worse without Rio 1992, but I don't see how. It has got much, much worse, we are on course towards catastrophe and there is no plan in sight to address this crisis. So how could it be worse?
It could be argued that if no agreements had been made at Rio 1992, we'd have been so shocked at the lack of potential action, we'd have been more determined to take it.
You see it is my contention that the 1992 Rio Earth Summit seriously misled the public. That it falsely appeared as if the solutions to the climate, biodiversity, sustainability and ecological crisis had been agreed upon and solved. Actually nothing had been achieved.
I say this is the real crisis. That the public thought our leadership had the plans to address this crisis and potential catastrophe, which they plainly don't have.
The result was that for the next 30 years, everyone went about their business as if the problem had been solved, mistakenly thinking it was fine to continue with business as usual, because our leadership had assured us this was entirely compatible with addressing the crisis.
Self-evidently this whole perception was wrong, because we have a fraction of the carbon budget left we had 30 years ago, and biodiversity and habitat declines have been massive.
The only thing we can be certain of is that business as usual is entirely incompatible with addressing this crisis, because we have 30 years of empirical evidence of what happens with business as usual.
I mean this massive increase in extra GHG emissions, and the last 30 years of biodiversity declines might be not so bad if we had some feasible plan to rapidly turn things around as we were assured was possible. Yet the thing is we don't have any such plan.
Therefore, we lost a valuable 30 years where we could have been making incremental changes, because our governments misled us into believing we could carry on with business as usual, and quickly fix things in 30 years time (now).
Yet, now our leaders want us to believe, that whilst they are not going to do anything immediately, don't worry, by 2050 we'll have done something. However, this report by the IEA suggests this is just yet another lie. theguardian.com/environment/20…
Surely, the only conclusion from this is that our leadership is not fit for purpose. Bizarrely tonight, world leaders have been having a great big junket, so celebrate what? Their complete failure to do anything meaningful in the last 30 years, when they promised they would.
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I'm starting to get the impression of COP26 as a contrived stitch up. Where world leaders get to present their inadequate action as fixing the problem. This really is dangerous stuff. You see I remember the 1992 Rio Earth Summit well. 🧵
After the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, political leaders, fossil fuel companies and general vested interest gave the impression the problem was fixed, that there was no need for people to turn to green politics, because mainstream politics had fixed the problem.
In the following years, in the 1990s, we had oil companies taking out big full page adverts in BBC Wildlife Magazine, National Geographic, etc, saying how they were switching their business model to renewables.
This really is an excellent article by @GeorgeMonbiot, which I can't praise enough.
This clarity is totally lacking in almost every other presentation of the climate crisis in the media. Most deliberately misdirect public. Very important 🧵
I really do despair when I read or hear most of the presentation about the climate crisis in the mainstream media because it tacitly implies we can avoid climate catastrophe without leaving fossil fuel reserves in the ground.
I am a firm believer in that to effectively solve a problem, especially one of this magnitude and seriousness, you have to understand the problem. This means being brutally honest about what the problem is and constantly re-evaluating your understanding of it.
1) There seems to be almost complete ignorance of sustainability and ecology in our modern culture.
When I say, our system will have to change, and those over-consuming will have to cut back, I get told, but people won't stand for that etc.
It's a bizarre response.
2) The laws of nature, the rules of ecology are just reality. They are like the laws of gravity. What you think about them makes no difference, and the laws of nature are not a democracy.
3) The climate and ecological emergency, means we've hit the sustainability buffers, the planetary boundaries. There is no option, which allows us to carry on as we are.
Of course we can try continuing as we are, but we are not going to get very far before we face collapse.
The problem is not the vagueness of the plan, but it's incoherence. 🧵below.
"And he agreed a pledge for all the biggest economies to achieve net zero emissions was “vague”, after the G20 failed to set a target date of 2050." independent.co.uk/climate-change…
There are actually 3 clear and separate components, necessary to address the climate crisis, and achieving Net Zero in the immediate future is only one of them. Focusing on only 1 component is leading to serious incoherence as very few people are looking at the whole big picture.
Even if these plans to reach actual Net Zero by 2050 were realistic and likely to achieve this goal, and all the evidence says the proposals are a long way of reaching actual net zero, a massive elephant in the room is being ignored.
1) I want to create a mini-thread here, to go through this revealing insight into Boris Johnson's thinking on the climate crisis. I think this very important, because we rarely get this type of insight. 🧵 independent.co.uk/climate-change…
2) The first think that stands out, is his warning of possible civilization collapse. Not least of all because I've been consistently saying this myself and actually using the collapse of the Roman Civilization in Britain as an example.
3) First I want to deal with what I consider the most important revelation.
"Admitting his own “road to Damascus” conversion - after a journalism career in which he scoffed at climate change - Mr Johnson said the key moment had only come after he became prime minister."