Thread by @nonewthing

Too many on this platform are scared of getting too far ahead of conventional wisdom. If I say Arteta may be ahead of Tuchel, it's not batshit crazy—it's projection. People forget that Arteta is still very new on the scene...

(KRAKEN THREAD; for tacticos only)

...with only 1.5 seasons of management at the highest level and with so much ahead of him.

Take Tuchel himself for an instance, when he appeared on the scene his in-game principles were better than Klopp's. He was already a better coach (not manager) but nobody dared say it out.

Tuchel is not faultless. He is not as politically or as emotionally astute as Klopp is. He hasn't handled a rebuild under intense pressure and poor conditions such as Klopp has (2x). He can't identify, recruit and manage talent as well as Klopp can. In fact, overall, the

circumstances of his career have been far more favourable than Klopp's which, ultimately, has led him to be presently regarded in the same light.

You could tell from way back then that Tuchel had great potential because of extraordinary coaching abilities. If the circumstances

were favourable enough, he could have a great career. If they were not, it would be much tougher for him. The former is true. Tuchel has benefited from having abundantly talented squads from the get-go. He hasn't had to deal much with the variance that comes with poor quality.

Klopp would already have had 2 or 3 Premier League titles if he got the United job instead of the Liverpool job. He could have had the means to do more, quicker. But he didn't and he had to be content with being regarded as an also-ran for a long time.

The lesson here is that

circumstances are important. Look at Graham Potter who had to coach in the Swedish division to get a chance. Nobody gave him a chance or a look in into management. In Germany, both Tuchel and Klopp got Mainz 04. Pochettino got Espanyol. Graham Potter got Ostersunds. Circumstances

Potter, no matter how good his coaching and managerial skills are, simply has far worse chances of getting a significant achievement to secure his reputation. His next job will probably be a better indicator of his coaching prowess.

How do you see through circumstances to get a

proper idea of how good a manager is?

Look at the almost immaculate buildup football from Unai Emery's Villarreal, something which he couldn't really show with Arsenal. What changed? Why couldn't he do that with Arsenal?

These things are worth looking into in order to properly

evaluate.

We all know what makes a team. Phasal progression, phasal compactness, retention, methods of chance creation, etc etc. It is simple to see how good a coach is by looking at what their teams have. Moyes' West Ham do not do as much pressuring as Southampton but they

nevertheless remain compact in all phases of play. A good tactico knows what is important, what is sustainable and what is scalable.

Nothing in football is sustainable without compactness.

A good tactico is thus able to respect Moyes' West Ham while despising Ancelotti's Madrid

Until you learn to appreciate a compact team, you are yet naive about football. Compactness is the gold dust of many trophy-winning teams. It is the super fundamental.

A good tactico must also be able to judge the general principles (as well as quality) of two teams and suggest

a likely winner.

Potter's Brighton have everything it takes to win trophies, tactically. As a result, Graham Potter is already one of the best coaches in the game. How good? Good enough to win against Pep, Klopp and co.

It's all probability. Once you can display all of the good

general principles as a team, your chances of winning a trophy is high.

As a result, here are the best trophy probable teams in the Premier League, in no particular order:

Brighton
Liverpool
Arsenal
Chelsea
Manchester City

These teams are complete in every sense.

Some teams are less complete, to a certain degree, but are still tactically complete enough to be trophy competitive

West Ham
Brentford
Manchester United
(Possibly Palace as well but Vieira hasn't had enough chance to show everything he can do).

This is all coaching based.

Already, Mikel Arteta's Arsenal contain every single principle it takes to be a top team (the degree of the effectiveness/consistency in the application of those principles is largely irrelevant as it can be circumstantially affected).

This is all from a coach in his first job.

Based on those general principles, Arteta can go toe to toe with Tuchel, Klopp, Guardiola and Potter.

This is the first and most important requirement. Everything else is subtle and can be rendered insignificant or significant by circumstances, a stroke of good or bad luck.

The way I understand it, there is no clear and definite ranking of managers. You can't really effectively measure and compare every single attribute that goes into being a good coach, talk less of general management. Rather, it is best to see these managers in terms of their

general game principles.

Arteta was admiring how Van Dijk could launch a 60-yard ball into Salah's chest the other day. Klopp was praising David Raya's passing ability. Guardiola was admitting how Chelsea were so wide in possession and narrow out of it. Tuchel threw his hands up

for Arsenal's pressing. It is all the same ideas. Don't you see it? The same principles.

Some tacticos are interested in analyzing whose principles are more effective in the particular way they do it but I'm not. The fact is that they all provably work well enough.

Arteta won two trophies against Pep and Klopp largely because of two moments when his team were able to play out from their own penalty box into the opposition box.

I guarantee that every single one of these managers have had such moments against one another.

The point is that it works well enough.

As a result, it is perhaps best to see these coaches as belonging to the same spectrum, the same wavelength, rather than a ranking list.

That way, you can understand it when Potter wins the league one day against Klopp and Pep.

Once the principles and quality is there, circumstances largely dictate the rest.

Now, looking at that pool of managers again:

Arteta
Tuchel
Pep
Potter
Klopp

Why did I say that Arteta may be ahead of Tuchel?

It's simple. He is the youngest and most inexperienced one there.

Arteta has also overcome extremely bad circumstances that possibly only Pep and Klopp could have similarly overcome in his very first job while showing extremely good signs in areas that Tuchel is not traditionally regarded as excellent at: political, emotional, and player IDing.

If the circumstances are excellent, all of these indicate that Arteta may have parallel success to Jurgen Klopp at one point or another.

If Arteta reaches that level of success while arriving into the scene 'more complete', then he may be perceived as definitely better.

Therefore, even though I do not truly rank coaches, I can project a very realistic future in which Arteta's accomplishments lead him to be perceived as better.

As it is right now, I wouldn't swap Year 1.5 Tuchel for Year 1.5 Arteta.

People look at the rough patches that Arteta has had with Arsenal and project that on Arteta himself. That doesn't make any sense. That is to consider circumstances as important. How can you then see a manager even through bad situations?

It's very illogical to do that.

The circumstances for Arteta’s rough patches is this:

—He had a squad so technically poor that Unai Emery could not coach a proper buildup out of it (Villarreal have more technical players than Arsenal 2019/2020).

—He had a squad without a single 10 profile in it.

—He had a squad culture so bad that even Freddie Ljunberg warned him about it and Josh Kroenke made it a priority in the rebuild.

Even if you consider his rough patches, Arsenal have only had about 2 months of very bad form under his control. Perception is not reality.

Maybe by the end of this season, this thread will make more sense to those who are overly skeptical about Mikel Arteta. Maybe you too, like a casual fan, need to see accomplishments, first, before rating a coach.

However, I expect better.