What @gideonrachman’s @FT piece doesn’t quite say is that there can be no EU without a deep, powerful Franco-German alliance. (And vice versa). The US needs a successful EU, which it can work with. (And vice versa). /1.
And that any deep Franco-British arrangement, & any US “intervention”, will be a function of those factors. If it isn’t, it will fail. Or, if it “succeeds”, it’ll destabilise the EU & the Euro-Atlantic alliance. /2.
Under the previous US president that might have been a US strategic objective. Whether France, Germany & the EU would have been foolish (or desperate) enough to fall for it is another matter. The current US administration is of a different stripe. /3.
And, contrary to the implication of the article, it certainly doesn’t “need” a rogue Brexit Britain to succeed. Not at the expense of much greater interests. Everything the UK offers the US can be replaced. With difficulty, to be sure. But we shouldn’t kid ourselves. /4.
The EU’s geo-strategic location & size, its collective economic & military weight (& potential) cannot. So, a comprehensive & deep UK partnership with France, Germany, the EU as a whole (& let’s not forget Ireland) is a great plan. Imagining a 2021 version of 1904 isn’t. /5. End
P.P.S. To clarify tweet 4, I’m sure @gideonrachman doesn’t mean “Brexit Britain” should behave as a rogue state, nor that the US admin would or should be inclined to tolerate that. But he does say the US won’t treat the UK as rogue. That isn’t right. They will if they have to.
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The good news. After today’s disgrace in the House of Commons.
13 Conservative MPs voted against the govt. For integrity & democracy. Dozens more abstained. All in the face of a 3-line whip. It takes 50 - 60 to oppose the govt to bring it down.
Bear with me.
A 🧵. /1.
If, after today, you still think a free & fair UK general election will take place, I respectfully suggest you’re as far out of touch with reality as Owen Paterson is with his better self. Sure, there’s a possibility one might. But that’s now low, & getting lower by the day. /2.
Govts are formed by whoever can command a majority in the House of Commons. We clearly, desperately & urgently, need a parliamentary majority & govt which respect democracy, the rule of law & proper constitutional order. Such a majority already exists. But no such govt. /3.
@BorisJohnson’s Brexit’s a disaster. Claiming it’s “done” & not mentioning it won’t win a @UKLabour majority. Nor will opposing it. What’s the point of the opposition?
A long🧵/1.
There’s pretty much no way any UK electoral calculus leads to an outright Labour majority at the next general election.
That’s even if a free & fair election is held.
Given the gerrymandering has already started, that seems unlikely in itself. /2.
Courting the “Red Wall”, winning among disillusioned southern Tories … None of it will work. Unless Labour pulls off an extraordinary victory in Scotland. Which looks extraordinarily unlikely. To put it kindly.
So, what indeed is the point of Keir Starmer & the opposition? /3.
It’s a remarkable fact that, of the three largest political parties, the only one speaking out against the grotesque, self-inflicted crisis hammering the United Kingdom is the one which wants to leave it.
That’s deeply troubling. And unsustainable.
A 🧵. /1.
▫️ @UKLabour are now actively supporting the Johnson Brexit, calling for VAT cuts which, they specifically state, wouldn’t be possible if the UK were in the EU (or the Single Market). /2.
▫️@Conservatives are pretending there’s a Schrödinger’s Brexit. Existing when rhetorically convenient. But non-existent when it comes to respect for the legally binding treaties on which it’s based, or its increasingly dire consequences for the UK. /3.
Some thoughts about sewage, credibility & integrity.
92 of your Conservative colleagues didn’t follow the government whip in voting down the Lords amendment on sewage in water.
If you did, that was your choice. /1.
But be aware: many people are angry with you. They don’t like the way you voted. That’s their choice.
By all means try to explain your vote. You’re on very shaky ground, in my opinion. And that of 92 of your Party colleagues. But have a go. If you want. /2.
Please, though, do not exploit the alleged terrorist assassination of one of your respected colleagues to attempt to shut down polite, robust, or even angry, opposition to your vote on raw sewage dumping.