The good news. After today’s disgrace in the House of Commons.
13 Conservative MPs voted against the govt. For integrity & democracy. Dozens more abstained. All in the face of a 3-line whip. It takes 50 - 60 to oppose the govt to bring it down.
Bear with me.
A 🧵. /1.
If, after today, you still think a free & fair UK general election will take place, I respectfully suggest you’re as far out of touch with reality as Owen Paterson is with his better self. Sure, there’s a possibility one might. But that’s now low, & getting lower by the day. /2.
Govts are formed by whoever can command a majority in the House of Commons. We clearly, desperately & urgently, need a parliamentary majority & govt which respect democracy, the rule of law & proper constitutional order. Such a majority already exists. But no such govt. /3.
If 13 Conservative MPs felt able to vote against the strictest instruction their leadership could give them, & dozens more rejected the same instruction, the govt’s in deep trouble. Only exceeded by the trouble the country’s in. Something I happen to care about far more. /4.
You’re not naive. Nor am I. One vote - won by the govt, after all - doesn’t resolve the UK’s appalling political crisis. Broken Brexit. Broken Britain. International near-isolation. Floundering on climate. A Covid charnel house. Corruption & chaos on a Hogarthian scale. But …/5.
… that one vote shows there are +/- 100 Conservative MPs who know right from wrong & are willing to take a stand. They, & all opposition parties also willing to do so, must put country before party. Now. In the current House of Commons. And form a new majority & govt. /6.
A coalition which will use the next couple of years to protect & promote the UK’s security, prosperity & well-being. Repairing its constitution, democracy, economy, environment & international alliances. Then go to the people. In a free & fair election. /7.
A few words on the parliamentary arithmetic. The highest working majority Boris Johnson has had so far is 90 (taking account of deaths & suspensions of MPs, & other factors). There are 8 DUP MPs who might be persuaded to ally with the govt, adding 2x8 (16) to that figure. /8.
A few words, also, on the SNP, Plaid etc & the UK. The democratic, decent, prosperous, secure & peaceful future of all people living in Great Britain & Northern Ireland is at stake. All else is secondary, whether or not the Union is, ultimately, capable of surviving. /9.
The current govt’s driving UK breakup. If the SNP (to take that example) demands an independence referendum as a “price” of joining a coalition, so be it. I doubt it will help their cause. But if they stand up for what’s right, who are the rest of us to stand in their way? /10.
As for anything up to 100 or so Conservative MPs deciding to join forces to create a democratic unity majority & govt with the current opposition parties, & those parties reciprocating, by all means tell me how terribly difficult it all is. /11.
Then tell me when the next free & fair UK general election will be. And why you think any of us have the luxury of waiting to find out if you’re right. /12. End
Update on parliamentary arithmetic: Daily Mail reports “over 50” Conservative MPs refused to obey the govt 3-line whip. The Guardian says “scores”. We’ll no doubt get more detail as the political correspondents dig & collate the numbers. We know 13 voted against the govt.
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What @gideonrachman’s @FT piece doesn’t quite say is that there can be no EU without a deep, powerful Franco-German alliance. (And vice versa). The US needs a successful EU, which it can work with. (And vice versa). /1.
And that any deep Franco-British arrangement, & any US “intervention”, will be a function of those factors. If it isn’t, it will fail. Or, if it “succeeds”, it’ll destabilise the EU & the Euro-Atlantic alliance. /2.
Under the previous US president that might have been a US strategic objective. Whether France, Germany & the EU would have been foolish (or desperate) enough to fall for it is another matter. The current US administration is of a different stripe. /3.
@BorisJohnson’s Brexit’s a disaster. Claiming it’s “done” & not mentioning it won’t win a @UKLabour majority. Nor will opposing it. What’s the point of the opposition?
A long🧵/1.
There’s pretty much no way any UK electoral calculus leads to an outright Labour majority at the next general election.
That’s even if a free & fair election is held.
Given the gerrymandering has already started, that seems unlikely in itself. /2.
Courting the “Red Wall”, winning among disillusioned southern Tories … None of it will work. Unless Labour pulls off an extraordinary victory in Scotland. Which looks extraordinarily unlikely. To put it kindly.
So, what indeed is the point of Keir Starmer & the opposition? /3.
It’s a remarkable fact that, of the three largest political parties, the only one speaking out against the grotesque, self-inflicted crisis hammering the United Kingdom is the one which wants to leave it.
That’s deeply troubling. And unsustainable.
A 🧵. /1.
▫️ @UKLabour are now actively supporting the Johnson Brexit, calling for VAT cuts which, they specifically state, wouldn’t be possible if the UK were in the EU (or the Single Market). /2.
▫️@Conservatives are pretending there’s a Schrödinger’s Brexit. Existing when rhetorically convenient. But non-existent when it comes to respect for the legally binding treaties on which it’s based, or its increasingly dire consequences for the UK. /3.
Some thoughts about sewage, credibility & integrity.
92 of your Conservative colleagues didn’t follow the government whip in voting down the Lords amendment on sewage in water.
If you did, that was your choice. /1.
But be aware: many people are angry with you. They don’t like the way you voted. That’s their choice.
By all means try to explain your vote. You’re on very shaky ground, in my opinion. And that of 92 of your Party colleagues. But have a go. If you want. /2.
Please, though, do not exploit the alleged terrorist assassination of one of your respected colleagues to attempt to shut down polite, robust, or even angry, opposition to your vote on raw sewage dumping.