I have no idea what will happen in Virginia today. I last lived in Virginia in 1995 when it was much redder. I think Terry would make a much better Governor than he was a candidate (he showed that in 2014-18) and better Gov than Youngkin. But Youngkin ran a much better campaign.
Given the national environment, this race would clearly be closer than 2017 (D+9). But if Terry ran a somewhat decent and competent campaign, he would still be favored to win easily. But alas, he ran as Terry McAwful and is at real risk of losing - and taking down LG, AG & HoD.
Campaigns and candidates matter. There's a reason there are Dem Governors in KY and LA, and GOP Governors in MD, MA and VT. How much campaigns and candidates matter in the end is up for debate and depends on specific circumstances, but surely enough for a few points.
T-Mac could have run a campaign that said: "When I was Governor from 2014-18, I helped bring VA out of the Great Recession and increase growth and prosperity for the state. Once again we are trying to emerge from difficult economic times, this from a pandemic. I can lead again."
Want to go negative and sound "populist"? "My opponent ran the Carlyle Group and cares only about enriching a few of his friends and not benefiting the whole state." Wouldn't lose a single rich NoVa voter but would help messaging elsewhere.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
