Are you Danny De Vito or Robert Wadlow Ie. Short... Or Long equities someone asked me today. Remarkable how hard that question has become. Perhaps it’s too many nootropics today but…
Modern risk taking - the binary bear / bull implied by the question is complicated. Long equities ? Only a tiny few. But first, no procrastination - I’m v long risk. But just what does that mean?
In a silent depression the most profitable risk is long the perception of risk less duration. Leveraged portfolios of USTs have been hot to trot
Their equity equivalents are trillion dollar enterprises deemed to be commercially risk less. Funny I think of that word as singular but my keyboard disagrees
High end pristine trophy like property that’s were I’m at. I ain’t bragging that’s better left to Instagram - if anything I’m blushing…
Property like that and precious…these are safe and ridiculously rewarding neighbourhoods to park your loot during silent depressions
I speak of collateral; one day many others will to. Gold should be the same except it currently acts as tho its suffering dementia - of course all the action is BTC - a young person’s precious
BTC? IDK. A new high with a closing print 67k and yeah another moonshot to the vicinity of 100k is not an insurmountable ask. A 10 bagger from its previous range; a 33 bagger from Covid low
But really ?? Can’t dismiss it but I’m hearing Too Good to Be True and I’m a firm believer in rejecting such mantras - but really that battle is best left said to others
Back to full on risk taking. The type that I’ve tried to enunciate only works as long as the status quo prevails. Tear that up and it’s tears not profits for them economic fears.
But so long as commercial banks push every single marginal leveragable dîme into US treasuries I’m gonna laugh contemptuously at these inflation yelling goon merchants. Until you develop a system of money printing that bypasses the banking sector I’m staying lev long risk less
To quote Hank Reardon, « Mother, I’m running a steel plant - not a whorehouse…»

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More from @hendry_hugh

3 Nov
Someone asked me about fiscal conservatism being a boon for GBP? Makes me think of the DJ refrain, You gave me a cassette ?? We don't play cassettes no more baby...let me explain. But first we got to behold the v long term chart of Sterling v the $
Little good comes from applying pro cyclical policies in a silent depression. Imo GBP and fiscal conservatism -real or fancied - just downright boring - the GBP level is tantalising - it took a real beating - but currencies don't have value, just levels...
Read 7 tweets
3 Nov
I guess with the google search boom in stagflation and useless fin media stagflation print pieces it was inevitable that someone would opine "Not sure we get runaway inflation but worse stagflation and tax increases are still really bad"
They are indeed. But a big part of what I'm saying is that this scenario happened 50 y ago after the global economy had finally deleveraged from 1932 and debt to gdp had troughed - that's an accommodating climate for your stagflation fears but less so today...
Today, policy mistakes tend to be pro cyclical and accentuate the disdain for commercial risk and reinforce the desire to accept zero or negative prospective returns in order to enjoy the security and benefits-in-kind that flow from risk less T bills
Read 7 tweets
2 Nov
"Fiscal handouts inflationary, eventually?" someone asks?
Not like this. Not erratic, one-off pyts that create a chaotic surge in orders that can't be fulfilled because the whole world had been put on a leave of absence; I mean who really thought this was gonna work out well over and above the morality deficit levelling justifications ?
So with the whole world laid off you give the US consumer cash and implore them to spend. BOOM! How are you supposed to measure reality or recurring demand in a science fiction movie? Don't answer that...
Read 17 tweets
2 Nov
Today’s FT had me head banging. So few money managers understand money and when the fin press weigh in with their ignorance…well its more than i can handle...especially as I'm taking a sabbatical from the good life
The bond market, think of it as a very busy restaurant, no empty seats or tables, everyone smart, hungry & attentive. Food’s usually good in busy restos. Bond market sets the shape of the curve to reflect incoming policy mistakes or to urge actions be taken.
Read 11 tweets
8 Oct
Rust Bucket..?
Me? You?
A penny for your creative thoughts?
Melancholic moi?
Who you doing?
Remember, I LOVE YOU...
Perhaps, or moving on, I promise I've not been drinking, I've been reading Virginia Woolf's Mrs Dalloway. My new bestie, Angus Fletcher, the wisest men are not on Twitter... inspired me to hallucinate via literature. "Just how far would you go to enhance your returns?", he asked?
Woolf suffered from mental illness and used reading to comfort herself. I’m doing it to hone my ability to imagine tomorrow...
Read 9 tweets
5 Oct
Patience will be rewarded when investing in China. I did warn you that the big guns would come out with reassurance in our financial pages. They need you ! They need naivety. They need your commitment to buy and keep them wealthy. But, hey, remember, no gloating...
Nice stat Aug 2001 (when series begins) to 2021, the MSCI China Index annualised total return 12.3 %, SPX 9.3 %. And the winner is..? Not so sure...is it appropriate to compare 2 countries at very different points in their development?
SPX achieved the same returns 1910 ish to end 1929 - a period marked by a world war but when all the ducks aligned for the US v RoW. 15% if you exclude the WWI and just take the roaring 1920s. So hmm...alright but there's no WoW factor. This ain't proof of anything.
Read 8 tweets

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