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3 Nov, 4 tweets, 3 min read
The @FT with a very nice video on what the #COP26 is about and a scary visualization of where the earth will become "too hot to handle" for comfortable human living.
This picture shows Africa in the mean (SSP2-4.5) scenario: many people forced to migrate.
ft.com/content/072b5c…
The SSP5-8.5 they use as worst case is highly unlikely (not so much because of policy but because of technical development imho) but do we want to take even a 5% or so chance on billions of people having to migrate?
Anyway, one of the things we will have to face that climate change will hit the global south hardest with tens or hundreds of millions migrating and many millions dying because of heatwaves and famine after failed crops and we (the biggest emitters) are the cause.
So it's time to start thinking not only of lowering levels of CO2 but also about caring for the victims we can already predict we are causing.

How will we help?

Where will they go?

This will be a *massive* change but fortunately some areas become better inhabitable too...

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More from @AukeHoekstra

AukeHoekstra Profile picture
4 Nov
I see this as an another example of hurting young people by increasing climate anxiety based on exaggerated doom and gloom.

For a more fact based and constructive discussion that leads to actually solving the problem see the next tweet.
I LOVED this piece by @_HannahRitchie that explains how the doomism almost made her choose another career but how she (now a data ninja at @OurWorldInData) sees reason for hope in facts and numbers.
And that really matters because young people are our greatest asset in the fight against climate change.

Instead of making them depressed, we should support them as they choose careers in climate change and work to solve the problem.
Read 4 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
4 Nov
British media and @VolvoCarUK are resuscitating an erroneous study I corrected before in #Astongate.

But it's become WORSE!

Claim: it takes 70k miles for EVs to pay back battery production.

Reality: 16k miles.

Let me explain once again (sigh).
thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/art… Image
I research this at the @TUeindhoven and try to correct errors in the media. And this is not my first rodeo with @volvocars and @PolestarCars.

I already flagged this study in september 2020.
I also had a nice 3 hour chat with Polestars LCA lead.
Then the study was reused in an "independent" study that turned out to be published by the wife of a PR head at Aston Martin.

It became the saga of #AstonGate.

Here's a link to my (long) thread that takes you directly to the nice blog by @MLiebreich.
Read 15 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
2 Nov
STOP TELLING KIDS THEY'LL DIE FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
"Many young people feel like their future is in peril. To make progress on climate change, we must move past doomsday scenarios."

LOVE this timely piece by @_HannahRitchie from @OurWorldInData in @WIRED 🧵
wired.co.uk/article/climat…
Hannah mentions a recent survey among 16-25 olds in many countries: 55% said humanity was doomed due to climate change and 39% are hesitant to have children as a result.

Let that sink in dear people working on climate change communication! You are causing a massive depression.
Hannah is one of my heroes in this field with her relentless stream of @OurWorldInData articles that provide facts and meaning.

But she nearly walked away from the field herself because she just oscillated between anger and hopelessness! Is that what we want to achieve?
Read 8 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
2 Nov
I often disagree with what @nytdavidbrooks writes but this analysis strikes a chord.

I hope many people read it and find something in themselves that seems to be sorely lacking: tolerance and empathy for those not in "your" group.
theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
I direct a group that makes agent-based models to explore better worlds.

The first agent-based model showed that segregation is almost automatic and that you have to fight and design to avoid segregation.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schelling…
I think what US society is missing is more programs that actively mix rich and poor, different skin colors, left and right, Ivy league and uneducated.

It's much harder to be condescending or dismissive if you know people personally and they are mostly just like you.
Read 5 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
16 Oct
I agree there is a place for hydrogen in mobility.
I just think it's probably a very small place.

I think this piece of @Toyota chief scientist Gill Pratt is heavily skewed toward hydrogen in order to make it seem more important. Let me show you.
medium.com/toyotaresearch…
Charging speed is limited by the so called C rate of battery cells.
Simply put: larger vehicles with more cells can stomach bigger chargers.
So big trucks will charge just as fast as small cars.

And of course 90% of charging is done while parked so speed isn't an issue there.
I remember how better place imagined that we would swap batteries to overcome charging time. These days are gone and 60 minutes is simply BS. I think in 2030, new EVs coming out can charge 80% of their range within ten minutes. For something you do occasionally that's a non issue
Read 8 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
15 Oct
Now that solar and wind are supercheap in some places, cheap electrolysis is the most important next step in green H2 production.

1 kW of electrolyzer produces ~200 kg of H2 per year when run at full load. If they last ten years and cost 200 euro that's 10 cents per kg of H2.
Not sure this 200 euro/kW will be reached as mentioned and that they will last 10 years but electrolysis is clearly getting pretty cheap in the future (as expected).

(10 cents/kg of H2 = 0.3 cents per kWh)
Imagine a super sunny place with cheap land produce solar at 1 cent per kWh. For 1 kg of H2 you would need around 50 kWh costing 50 cents.

If electrolysis costs only 10 cents extra that together would only be 60 cents.

There's lot's of other costs but that's just ~2 cents/kWh.
Read 8 tweets

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