#OOTT The darkness over the FF industry is starting to lift. Investors are realizing that the TOTAL ENERGY pie is expanding and will continue to expand for the foreseeable future. 99% of Wall Street have no clue what life is like in the developing world. Electricity demand
#OOTT 2/ is about to go S curve. As the energy demand curve expands, every source of power will be tapped. Will renewables be the fastest growers-probably as its base is low. On a % base it will lead, but on an absolute base, unlikely as it can not scale. Witness Vestas
#OOTT 3/yesterday. Ugly earnings and market report. Why? Because steel prices are up and components are in short supply. Trick question. When did biomass and coal use peak? Answer; Not yet and still growing despite the Greenies effort. Can we produce power better? Of course
#OOTT 4/ there are better options than burning petrified cow dung which half of Africa and SE Asia use for cooking and heating. You want AC, Cloud farms, heat, light, escalators, etc. They all need power. Even the mighty Larry Fink is realizing he needs to adjust his campaign
#OOTT 5/ against FF. He now realizes that selling the stock/debt of FF does not extinguish the entity, it merely transfers ownership. If you want to change the culture of the entity, it needs to be changed from within-Like Engine No.1. Are FF execs aware of the
#OOTT 6/changing landscape. Yes they are and they are responding. Prepare for high energy prices for the foreseeable future. Renewables are not the silver bullet. OPEC+ will not be able to meet demand in 2022. US shale needs to ramp and it may need $100 to get them to commit.
#OOTT 7/ Good quality E&Ps will be the next Phillip Morris which performed like a champ even after it was shunned by the investment community. Cash flow wins in the end. @threadreaderapp unroll

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More from @Tin_Man67

3 Nov
#OOTT Oil prices retreating. No surprise as the tree gets shaken. The backwardated curve is losing some of its steepness as the mkt is expecting an SPR release. OPEC+ is going to stick with its plan, but the cheating will begin from the players that can over produce. Enjoy
#OOTT 2/ the downdraft while you can as the winter months are around the corner. With the $NG situation, products are in demand (diesel, kerosene, etc). Demand is going up across the energy spectrum. It is a slow increase, but persistent. US shale has spoken-flat output
#OOTT 3/ in 2022 unless Mr. Market starts rewarding current shareholders. Otherwise it is debt pay down, divvies and share buy backs. On the political front, the Virginia Governor race is almost confirming a switch in Congress next year. The Biden Admin is on the ropes
Read 4 tweets
16 Oct
Napoleon quote: "Never interfere with your enemy when they are making a mistake". That is the Chinese game plan ever since they were admitted to the WTO. For 20+ years, US business has done a wonderful job of off shoring jobs, pollution, and technology to China under the
2/pretense that they could sell their wares to the 1.4 bln potential customers. China thinks in decades, not on FYs. Their plan was simple. Absorb all the US technology and learn how the capitalist system works to bring their country out of the dark ages. For 20+ years
3/ they have executed their plan and now the game is changing. The US middle class has been gutted and thousands of one factory towns have fallen victim to the outsourcing. US labor got smoked as the 1 bln of low wage Chinese workers allowed US employers to move it off shore.
Read 10 tweets
16 Oct
#OOTT The curve is steep in backwardation and the citizens are seeing the effects of the Biden Administration and Green advocates policies. Maybe this is part of the transition team's plan to jack up the price of FF to make the Green initiative more palpable to the citizens.
#OOTT 2/ But of course the best laid plans always have a wrinkle. 'You reap what you sow' and the efforts by Fink, Gore, Bloomberg, Biden and a host of other anti FF advocates has resulted in a truly monumental clusterf$%k . History books will be a fantastic read of this era
#OOTT 3/ and will be a text book case for HBS on how not to run a policy shift. 5+ years of capital starvation for an industry has an effect, especially when the replacement is not all the promoters forecasted. Capital is starting to wake up and sees opportunity. E&P being
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct
#OOTT In times of these 'expert' reports from obviously biased agencies, I refer back to the Napoleon quote-"Never interrupt your enemies when they are making a mistake". While the push for a Green energy revolution is in the best interest for the planet, it is being executed
#OOTT 2/ by a clown show of disingenuous actors. Just like the cost of a container has skyrocketed, there are none available. The same will happen in the fossil fuel industry. Look at coal, yes coal the most despised FF, as it is in short supply and none is available at any
#OOTT 3/ cost in India and China. Why? Because the drive to replace it only cut back the supply, but not the demand. Demand charts past 12 months are just speculation. Now it is $NG's turn as there is no excess supply available at any cost-despite Putin talking the price
Read 6 tweets

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