Please share to build awareness! Permafrost is being featured today at #COP26Glasgow. Here I will explain why this is SO important to our future climate and everything we know and love about the Arctic. Stick with me for a cooler than cool 🧵. Photo @grosse_guido 1/
Permafrost is diverse, comprised of frozen earth (rock, soil, sediment...). It often contains pockets of ice of all sizes. For many many 1000s of yrs, permafrost has been quietly doing its thing. Aggrading & locking atmospheric carbon into frozen ground. A true climate champ! 2/
Permafrost is a HIDDEN gem of the Arctic. Frozen ground is buried by a surface active layer (soil, moss) that freezes & thaws seasonally. But dig deeper, and we come across perennially frozen ground. This makes it difficult to study from surface or remote sensing measurements. 3/
Permafrost is discovery. When I take people into the field to experience permafrost, there is a universal reaction. When you place your hand in the soft earth and connect with frozen ground for the first time, there is glee & wonder. A core part of what it is to be human. 4/
Permafrost is the quiet friend who gets shit done. A friend of the Arctic, supporting ecosystems & infrastructure. Allowing for safe travel of hunters, harvesters, & wildlife. A friend of global climate, removing carbon from the atmosphere & keeping it safe in its frozen arms. 5/
In many regions of the Arctic, permafrost thaw is accelerating. This turns permafrost- once our climate friend- into a foe, releasing ancient carbon to the atmosphere. New biomass can offset some losses. To keep permafrost a friend of climate, we must reduce our emissions NOW. 6/
In many climate models, permafrost & its feedback to climate is IGNORED. Large scale models that do consider permafrost only consider a very simple type of thaw. We address this huge need & concern here. 7/ nature.com/articles/d4158…
So what's missing? Large scale models do not consider thaw of ice-rich permafrost. This thaw happens quickly and affects meters of ground over years instead of cm over decades. What does ice-rich permafrost look like? Check out these wonders!! 8/
Ice-rich permafrost also stores the most carbon. Areas prone to thermokarst (subsidence & erosion due to ice-rich permafrost thaw) affect ~20% of the Arctic but store ~50% of all permafrost carbon. No large scale model is currently addressing this.
This is a problem folks. 9/
From this, we know models UNDERestimate the strength of permafrost carbon feedbacks to future climate, & they also likely OVERestimate the time frame. @IPCC_CH reports suggest that permafrost will become more important to climate after 2100. It's likely to be sooner. 10/
Climate change is turning permafrost- a climate champion- into a foe with deep dark carbon & other mysteries we don't want to see. We can't save all Arctic permafrost, but we can save some if we reduce our emissions now. Let's keep permafrost on the safe side of climate. 11/
This is the end of my cooler than cool permafrost 🧵. I hope you think of permafrost as our friend, one that has done a lot for us, our climate, & the Arctic. Do you have more questions about permafrost? In honor of #COP26Glasow, ask me & I will do my best to answer. 12/12
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There is a ton of misinformation in my replies so here is a primer on permafrost carbon. Permafrost stores a HUGE amount of carbon because ancient life took up CO2, built biomass, then died. That organic matter (~50% C) slowly accrued in Earth's best freezer for 1000s of yrs. 1/
When frozen organic matter in permafrost warms, microbial activity speeds up. Microbes use the organic matter in their respiratory processes, which can release a variety of GHGs as byproducts, mostly CO2 but also methane, which make their way to the atmosphere. 2/
Good: Not all permafrost carbon is vulnerable to this microbial processing, & hopefully not all permafrost will thaw.
Bad: A lot of permafrost is thawing and will thaw.
Ugly: Permafrost thaw will release enough CO2 and CH4 that it will join the world stage of major emitters. 3/
Fire Facts from a Boreal 🔥 Ecologist to help you understand what is really going on in Canada.
Fire Fact 1: The term “forest fire” is misleading in boreal regions. Also burning are peatlands and permafrost ecosystems, which store LOTS of ancient carbon. 1/
Fire Fact 2: We tend to picture crown fires, with flames leaping up into tall trees. However, the majority of what burns and fuels boreal fires is ON THE GROUND. More than 80% of what burns and emits greenhouse gas is moss, peat, and litter. 2/
Fire Fact 3: 🔥 connects the world in complex ways. Smoke is transported globally and affects lung health for millions. Smoke and soot travel to the Arctic, speeding up ice melt. Arctic melt created the conditions for extreme burning in 🇨🇦 and widespread smoke plumes. Wow. 3/
False narratives about the #Arctic & #permafrost are being driven by the media. Here are some facts from science. 1) permafrost underlies 1/4 of N hemisphere land and 1/2 of Canada. Frozen ground is a backbone for ecosystems and infrastructure. 1/ fediscience.org/@queenofpeat/1…
Fact 2: It’s false to say thaw is unprecedented as it has happened in the past. However, rates of thaw are getting faster w/ warming, and because of climate change some permafrost will never return. Here is a video of me realizing ancient permafrost in Alaska is gone forever. 2/
Fact 3: Thawing permafrost is not why atmospheric methane (CH4) has increased so quickly in recent years. For now, permafrost thaw is a CO2 story, not a methane or nitrous oxide story. Hey climate reporters - Let’s keep our eye on the true story which deserves attention. 3/
I am seeing and receiving pushback for being a climate scientist speaking out about the #MarshallFire. I understand this perspective. 1) It's difficult to attribute the #ClimateCrisis to any single event, and 2) this event was extremely complex. But hear me out. 1/
1) The #MarshallFire was either a reminder or a wakeup call that whether you live up the canyon (like I do) or on the plains, 🔥 is an ongoing threat. 2) Climate-fire relationships are complex, but due to the #ClimateCrisis, we need to learn to live with 🔥 more than ever. 2/
Hurricane force winds & human development were important factors in the #MarshallFire. But fuel configuration and moisture, and invasive species also important. Fuels include natural & human-derived.
One thing is clear to me. We all need to unite under the same umbrella. 3/
~30,000 people fled the #MarshallFire, one of the most terrifying experiences we can face. Today I am reflecting on the added anxiety and consequences of fleeing a #climatemergency disaster during the COVID pandemic. Here I'll share a personal story w/ a tiny bit of insight. 1/
Just outside Boulder, circa January 2021
Normally I love the sound of wind in the trees. But the winds were howling that day. It was difficult to ignore. The house was groaning, shifting. We were in full lockdown due to COVID-19. I was trying to stay busy. 2/
My children were playing outside. Mommy I smell smoke...
At first I didn't smell anything. It was a red flag day. Everyone needed to be careful. But then I smelled it and we saw flames down the road. That is our only way out. What happened next was a blur. 3/
Permafrost stores 2x the amount of carbon in the atmosphere yet is not considered by many climate models. Are we totally screwed??? Here I will explain what we know and why I promote #ClimateActionNow but not panic. 1/
The Arctic (and its permafrost soils) is not a missing black box in any climate model, which all include Arctic soils. Until we explicitly include permafrost in these models, it is difficult to know what climate feedbacks we are missing. Likely to be in the middle. 2/
I research abrupt permafrost thaw, known to be a large source of methane. NO large scale models address abrupt thaw, yet. Ouch. Still, some portion of abrupt thaw fluxes are included in current modeling. What's the potential for overlap? More than zero, but we don't know. 3/