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4 Nov, 8 tweets, 2 min read
"Its a safe seat. A rabbit with a blue rosette would win there".

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Ches…
"Its a safe seat. Massive Tory majorities for decades".

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_East…
"Its a safe seat. They don't count Tory votes there, they weigh them."

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ribb…
"Its a safe seat. Blue since the 1920s"

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Newb…
"Its a safe seat. Two thirds of people vote Tory there."

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Chri…
"Its a safe seat. Reliably Tory since its creation."

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_East…
"Its a safe seat. They're solid Tory on the Wirral"

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Wirr…
People seem to forget that the previous Con govt lost every single by-election defence from 1989 until voted out in 1997, regardless of how safe the seat was. By-elections are perilous for LT incumbent govts dogged by scandal.

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More from @robfordmancs

Rob Ford Profile picture
4 Nov
And another scandal driven by-election on the way soon, it seems. Super-interesting one too, given controversial circumstances in which Webbe got the seat, the massive swing against her in 2019 and the open ambitions of her predecessor Keith Vaz to recover seat he held 1987-2019
A whopping 15 point swing against Labour in Leicester E in 2019, by a country mile largest swing against the party in a highly diverse seat. Leicester E's predominantly British Indian community really did not like the late imposition of Corbyn ally Webbe en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leicester…
As for Vaz, who is chair of the local party, he has been on manoeuvers for a while - either for himself or a family member... huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/keith-va…
Read 4 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
4 Nov
Lets review the last 24 hrs:
Govt whips vote to gut standards oversight, barely wins
Opposition refuses to participate in new kangeroo court
Cabinet ministers make fools of themselves defending kangeroo court
Govt abandons kangeroo court and MP it was created to save
MP resigns
(I should add MP resigns after finding out the govt has abandoned him when a BBC journalist phones him while he is out shopping. No one from the govt thought to let him know).
Coming opposition by-election campaign will presumably be months of telling North Shropshire voters exactly how and why they have to elect a new MP. Not really much need to do anything else.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
3 Nov
Interesting thread - a couple of thoughts it prompts. Firstly, if the "nothing matters" scenario is defined as "one party is dominant in the polls and nothing seems to shift this" then there are several long periods of this being the case in last 40 yrs or so
1983-1989: "Nothing matters, Cons have big poll lead and majority"
1993-1997: "Nothing matters, Lab has huge poll lead, Cons are doomed
1997-2006: "Nothing matters, Lab has big poll lead and majority"

That's 19 years in the last 38 - or 50% of the time
However, most of the last 15 years has been in the alternative "stuff might matter" scenario - either polling is tight, or Commons balance of power is tight, or both. So a whole political generation has come of age with that as the norm. Political dominance is unusual to them
Read 7 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
2 Nov
I don't think this problem is limited to climate change - miserablism handicaps all sorts of progressive campaigns. Telling people everything is awful and going to get worse is a great way to motivate your core activists, but a terrible way to motivate anyone else.
I have noticed this time and again on imm and race, two areas I research. Any time I post some of the wide range of evidence showing that racial prejudice is in steady, LT decline, or that immigration attitudes are improving, my replies fill up with progressive miserabilists.
It is a curious mentality I still rather struggle to understand (being by nature a cautious optimist). I think part of it is an Eeyorish wallowing in the awfulness of things, but a bigger part is status signalling - "I am smart &virtuous because I recognise the horror of it all."
Read 5 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
2 Nov
"The British General Election of 2019", with @drjennings @ProfTimBale and @p_surridge , is out today! To celebrate, and hopefully encourage your interest, here's a thread of threads.

amazon.co.uk/British-Genera…
A thread by @ProfTimBale picking out his favourite cartoons from the book. Britain really is blessed with some outstanding political cartoonists, and their generously shared images really help us tell the story
A thread from me live tweeting the election campaign events day by day - this one will continue all the way to December 13th...
Read 5 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
26 Oct
Maybe that should read "Therefore, Facebook's algorithm rated "angry" reactions as more valuable
Outgroup hate drives anger
Anger drives engagement
Engagement drives content algorithms...
Therefore, facebook's algorithms actively promote outgroup hate, & will likely continue to do so, because outgroup hate delivers the outcome facebook wants (engagement)
I'm honestly not sure this is a problem any social media company is going to resolve so long as the services continue to be free to users (i.e. advertising and hence engagement driven).
Read 6 tweets

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