Interesting thread - a couple of thoughts it prompts. Firstly, if the "nothing matters" scenario is defined as "one party is dominant in the polls and nothing seems to shift this" then there are several long periods of this being the case in last 40 yrs or so
1983-1989: "Nothing matters, Cons have big poll lead and majority"
1993-1997: "Nothing matters, Lab has huge poll lead, Cons are doomed
1997-2006: "Nothing matters, Lab has big poll lead and majority"

That's 19 years in the last 38 - or 50% of the time
However, most of the last 15 years has been in the alternative "stuff might matter" scenario - either polling is tight, or Commons balance of power is tight, or both. So a whole political generation has come of age with that as the norm. Political dominance is unusual to them
Second thought is that the focus on poll and Commons leads as impregnable may be misleading because politics often seems a bit like a punctuated equilibrium system - long periods of apparent stability but with pressures building up below the surface
For example, when we look back on the New Labour era of dominance from the perspective of the last decade, it is easy to see the slow changes underway which led to the subsequent era of turbulence.
More recently, and over a shorter time horizon, polling in 2017-2018 was remarkably stable, but the pressures/polarisation which led to the pollercoaster of 2019 were clearly building up.
In both cases, those covering politics day to day might well conclude "nothing matters, nothing makes an impact". Yet this would be mistaken: lots of things were putting the status quo under pressure. It just took time for the accumulated tensions to find political expression.

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More from @robfordmancs

4 Nov
"Its a safe seat. A rabbit with a blue rosette would win there".

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Ches…
"Its a safe seat. Massive Tory majorities for decades".

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_East…
"Its a safe seat. They don't count Tory votes there, they weigh them."

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ribb…
Read 8 tweets
4 Nov
Lets review the last 24 hrs:
Govt whips vote to gut standards oversight, barely wins
Opposition refuses to participate in new kangeroo court
Cabinet ministers make fools of themselves defending kangeroo court
Govt abandons kangeroo court and MP it was created to save
MP resigns
(I should add MP resigns after finding out the govt has abandoned him when a BBC journalist phones him while he is out shopping. No one from the govt thought to let him know).
Coming opposition by-election campaign will presumably be months of telling North Shropshire voters exactly how and why they have to elect a new MP. Not really much need to do anything else.
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
I don't think this problem is limited to climate change - miserablism handicaps all sorts of progressive campaigns. Telling people everything is awful and going to get worse is a great way to motivate your core activists, but a terrible way to motivate anyone else.
I have noticed this time and again on imm and race, two areas I research. Any time I post some of the wide range of evidence showing that racial prejudice is in steady, LT decline, or that immigration attitudes are improving, my replies fill up with progressive miserabilists.
It is a curious mentality I still rather struggle to understand (being by nature a cautious optimist). I think part of it is an Eeyorish wallowing in the awfulness of things, but a bigger part is status signalling - "I am smart &virtuous because I recognise the horror of it all."
Read 5 tweets
2 Nov
"The British General Election of 2019", with @drjennings @ProfTimBale and @p_surridge , is out today! To celebrate, and hopefully encourage your interest, here's a thread of threads.

amazon.co.uk/British-Genera…
A thread by @ProfTimBale picking out his favourite cartoons from the book. Britain really is blessed with some outstanding political cartoonists, and their generously shared images really help us tell the story
A thread from me live tweeting the election campaign events day by day - this one will continue all the way to December 13th...
Read 5 tweets
26 Oct
Maybe that should read "Therefore, Facebook's algorithm rated "angry" reactions as more valuable
Outgroup hate drives anger
Anger drives engagement
Engagement drives content algorithms...
Therefore, facebook's algorithms actively promote outgroup hate, & will likely continue to do so, because outgroup hate delivers the outcome facebook wants (engagement)
I'm honestly not sure this is a problem any social media company is going to resolve so long as the services continue to be free to users (i.e. advertising and hence engagement driven).
Read 6 tweets
25 Oct
ELECTION 2019 - Last night PM Johnson once again called for a December 12th general election. "If [Parliament] genuinely want more time to study this excellent deal they can have it but they have to agree to a genreal election"
Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn refused to be drawn: "“Tomorrow the EU will decide whether there’s going to be an extension or not,” Corbyn told broadcasters this evening. “That extension will obviously encompass whether there’s a no-deal or not. Let’s find that out tomorrow.”
Corbyn has previously said Labour will back an election as soon as the EU agrees an extension to the looming Article 50 deadline. Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, an early election bill requires a two thirds majority in the Commons, and therefore needs Labour support
Read 13 tweets

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