Thread by @docbaty

Welcome to today’s reading of @SatPaper

I’ll be focusing on the PM, today, and the various failures of leadership we’ve seen from him, and his government...

@SatPaper Let’s begin with @JohnRHewson: When will Morrison learn that a slogan is not a policy?

thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/…

[Sidebar: what’s you ‘favourite’ Coalition slogan?]

"In the past two elections we were bombarded with “Jobs and growth”. Absent any detail, we were left asking, Which growth? In what sectors? On what time line?”

[I’m not sure how widespread that kind of critical thinking was at the time, but he’s right.]

"The government’s unwillingness or inability to provide necessary policy detail can easily be taken by voters as contempt for them. It is an attempt to take them for granted rather than leading on the issue…"

[The lack of transparency and general practice of obfuscation from the Coalition is another lens through which to view these slogans. They’re not an attempt to enlighten, but rather to hide.]

"The latest slogan covering the absence of policy detail is “Technology not taxes”…

As has been well documented, this slogan is the outcome of what was an elongated negotiation with the Nats to get their agreement for Morrison to commit to a net-zero emissions target for 2050."

"We still don’t know what price Morrison paid to gain Nationals support, but we suspect yet another regional slush fund for Nationals pork-barrelling with a nod and a wink in favour of more coalmines, additional gas projects and more gas and coal-fired power."

[Those regional slush funds are another story worth diving into, but it’s for another time. That said: these funds are paid for using… taxes. So while Morrison & co. talk about ‘Technology, not taxes’ what they really mean is ‘Taxes, not action’.]

"It should be clear that the LNP’s position on carbon-pricing is totally hypocritical when their preferred alternative... actually purchases emission reductions and thereby puts a price on carbon to do so. Every tonne of emission reduction achieved has a price."

"Morrison’s choice of slogan – “Technology not taxes” – is not ideological but simply opportunistic.”

"Academic evidence is overwhelmingly that a market-determined carbon price is the most efficient mechanism to drive the transition process to a low-carbon world."

[Dr Hewson makes the connection between past Coalition sloganeering - such as the campaign against a ‘carbon tax’ and the inability of the government to access international market-based mechanisms to reduce emissions.]

"Morrison’s assumed cleverness of his slogan will not necessarily cut through in these conferences... The major powers will find it very difficult to accept that a country such as Australia abandoned an emissions trading scheme that was actually reducing emissions."

"To stick with 26-28 per cent reductions in emissions by 2030 is totally inadequate, about half of what will be required to do the job.”

[One of the galling aspects of Australia’s presence at COP26 was that we held to an old, inadequate target.]

"It is obviously difficult for him to escape his marketing roots. He needs to realise that to continue to rely on such slogans to avoid producing policy substance and detail easily harks back to the famous slogan from his tourism days: “So where the bloody hell are you?”"

[When it comes to anti-Coalition and anti-Morrison slogans, we have a wealth of material from the PM himself

* He’s had a go; now he has to go
* Where the bloody hell were you?
* I don’t think; I know…]

Speaking of Macron...

"What perhaps Macron is yet to realise is that his French naval construction company was used as a mere pawn by Morrison in his bid for re-election last time around."

"The French submarine contract was a parting gesture from Christopher Pyne to shore up votes in South Australia, with a substantial local manufacturing aspect “guaranteed”. This was the big lie…"

[‘The Big Lie’ is something we’re seeing more and more of in Australian politics. An absolute falsehood, delivered flagrantly and conviction, that holds water only long enough to grab headlines and sway votes or distract attention from the last Big Lie.]

[While journalists and fact-checkers gather their evidence to dispute the Big Lie, the politician has moved on - as Morrison recommended to us all yesterday - to the next controversy. ]

"Scott Morrison’s problem is he can’t see past the next election.”

[Talking recently with colleagues about a string of bad policy I remarked that the Coalition isn’t trying to be good at governing; they just need to be good at re-election.]

OK, let’s move on to @PaulBongiorno and the most recent diplomacy cockups from Morrison. I use plural, there, because this past fortnight or so has been disastrous…

thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/…

How Morrison Spectacularly failed the diplomacy test

"In one of the most remarkable developments, certainly since the Second World War, an Australian prime minister has leaked a highly confidential security document against an American president."

[Let’s wind back just a moment. The AUKUS deal was inked and announced before Morrison spoke to French President Macron. That sparked a diplomatic row between Aust & France, but also between France & the US…]

[… in attempting to smooth over that row, US President Biden spoke publicly, apologising for the poor grace shown by Australia in the handling of the notification to France.

Morrison responded by releasing a confidential document that includes the UK.]

[In doing so, Morrison exhibited the diplomatic maturity we might expect from a toddler… But let’s leave that to Paul to dig into.]

"On the international stage, Scott Morrison put his own domestic political interests ahead of maintaining public trust between Canberra and its most important strategic and treaty partner, the United States."

"In front of the world’s television cameras, Biden told Macron he was “under the impression that France had been informed long before that the deal was not going through. I, honest to God, did not know you had not been.”"

"And this is where Morrison’s habitual way of playing politics badly let himself down, as well as Australia’s best interests. A document was duly leaked to The Australian implying Biden was lying to Macron."

@PaulBongiorno notes that this could only have been leaked out of the PM’s office. It’s unlikely DFAT was consulted; and Foreign Minister Marise Payne was nowhere to be seen...

"The headline to the story in The Australian was “How Biden knew plan all along”. It revealed that a confidential 15-page document ... “describes, to the hour, how the world would be told” of the pact."

"The piece said the document, which Biden’s closest advisers signed off on, “made it clear Australia would tell France on that day, September 16, that its $90 billion submarine contract was being scrapped”."

"The release of this highly confidential document is without doubt Morrison returning the compliment to Biden…

That Morrison was so ham-fisted in his diplomacy cannot be in Australia’s national interest,...”

"Midweek, at the National Press Club, the recently returned French ambassador, Jean-Pierre Thébault, was scathing in his reaction to Morrison’s leaking of a personal text message from Macron."

[Oh, yeah, in addition to leaking a secret planning document negotiated between the US, UK & Aust, Morrison also leaked private text messages between himself and Macron.

Go big or go home, eh Scotty?]

"The [French] ambassador said it sends a message to other world leaders to be aware of what you say to Australia in confidence, “because it will be used and weaponised against you”."

"The opposition leader, Anthony Albanese, says Morrison shouldn’t treat other world leaders “the way he treats state premiers here in Australia”…”

"The prime minister who signed the original submarine contracts, Malcolm Turnbull, doesn’t hold back in his criticism."

"Turnbull, too, sees the embroiling of the US in the breakdown of relations as a very unhealthy development for Australia... He says, Morrison “has sacrificed Australian honour, Australian security and Australian sovereignty”.”

[Not bad for a week’s effort.]

[Opposition leader Albanese] said he had news for the prime minister: he isn’t the state of Australia, he “is a leader with a track record of not answering questions directly, of dissembling, of gaslighting and of not being fair dinkum in the way he deals with issues”.

[Parallels with Morrison’s efforts on climate change…]

"The bulk of Morrison’s boasting in his upbeat address to the summit was fanciful optimism that either unproved or as-yet-non-existent technology will save the planet by 2050."

[Morrison’s address at COP26 was a neat rhetorical dance, praising the efforts of scientists in handling the pandemic, dismissing the efforts of scientists in tackling climate change and developing renewable energy, whilst calling on scientists to solve the problem in future.]

"We will know within months whether this palpable loss of credibility on the world stage translates into voters losing trust in Scott Morrison’s incompetent and do-nothing government.”

[An election must be held before May 21, 2022.]

Let’s move on now to COP26 and @KarenMMiddleton’s article. Here’s an unlocked link you can use to read the whole thing: thesaturdaypaper.com.au/share/12832/2m…

"The two stories of the Glasgow climate summit"

"Australia’s pavilion at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow is in a slightly awkward spot."

"Showcasing Australian environmental technologies and providing a meeting space for delegates, it’s back-to-back with another titled “The Methane Moment”…. spruiking the world’s American-led pledge to cut methane emissions by 2030 – a pledge Australia has refused to sign."

"One is a tale of recalcitrant governments still resisting what many others have finally faced – the need to not just reduce net emissions but to start directly phasing out fossil fuels, and fast…"

"The other story is of the rise of new, low-emissions technologies and a private sector forging on regardless, seizing opportunities as developers, financiers and adopters on the basis that the business case for making the shift is already clear."

[As an Australian, with us firmly in the former category, I find this frustrating and embarrassing.]

[Morrison took the opportunity of COP26 to practice his election slogans for the upcoming election. Talking about ‘technology not taxes’ and the jingoistic ‘Australian Way’. But the Australian way is to not be a blow-hard bullshitter as much as anything else.]

"“That is the practical task now. Post-COP26, it’s not about the ‘if’ and the ‘when’, it’s only about the ‘how’.”

But the “if” and “when” are inextricable from the “how”…"

“@richiemerzian says it’s more than disappointing that Morrison refused to upgrade Australia’s emissions reduction targets for 2030 from those set at the 2015 conference in Paris, which Morrison says he will “meet and beat”.

“...“The fact that he came here and missed the brief completely and missed the political significance of this moment – I think further damaged Australia’s global reputation,” he says.”

[So the international relations failures weren’t just confined to tit-for-tat leaks.]

"“If he hadn’t been such a recalcitrant on climate, then he would’ve stood alongside Boris, alongside Biden, on the world stage, calling out Russia and China.””

[Let’s not forget we’re already in a diplomatic stoush with China…]

"The Morrison government is declining to formulate any active phase-out plan for fossil fuel use or production in Australia, and remains implacably opposed to anything that looks like a tax-based measure.”

Technology not taxes, remember!

[Australia’s position] “It’s providing cover for China and Russia to do less, rather than leading with its ‘forever friends’ the US and the UK,” Merzian says.

[Australia’s booth at COP26, which featured a carbon capture & storage display from Santos earlier in the week, also showed off climate-friendly projects such as the Sun Cable and green hydrogen from Fortescue Future Industries.]

The Santos project " is the first such project to be registered under the government’s Emissions Reduction Fund, qualifying it for international carbon credits. Energy Minister Angus Taylor joined Gallagher at the pavilion to launch the $220 million project."

[The fact that a CCS project can qualify for carbon credits is one of the most perverse distortions of such schemes anywhere in the world. This is the equivalent of being mugged for only 80% of your cash and the thief expecting a reward for ‘finding’ your 20%.]

“This is the first time a national government will award tradable, high-integrity carbon credits to large-scale projects that capture and permanently store carbon underground,” Taylor said.

He’s right, because it’s so completely bonkers no other government has done it.

As @RichieMerzian is wont to say, this is another example of the government’s history of ‘Meeting through cheating’ rather than taking substantive, genuine action to address emissions reduction.

Taken separately, Morrison’s actions over the past month or so demonstrate a failure to grasp the significance of the moment; a misreading of the forces at play; an inability to navigate complex issues...

Together, they paint a picture of a government mired in its own lack of vision; a focus on re-election rather than governing; a fundamental dishonesty and habitual hiding of the truth; and a pattern of running from difficult issues instead of taking constructive action.

As a result, we have a group in power with no desire to lead, no desire to govern, but only to use the trappings and resources of government to retain that power.