Thread by @gelliottmorris

I think it is very odd that we’re getting these stories about Democratic collapse in very rural areas when the swing against them in VA was much larger in 50-50 and 60-40D precincts, which tend to be suburban, and when the turnout decrease was much larger in very urban counties.

https://twitter.com/jon_m_rob/status/1457461046147489795

This is partially explained by the logit curve (50-50 areas have more personable voters in them than 75-25 jurisdictions!) but, really once you look at the turnout data there is no world in which McAuliffe’s loss was made in rural VA

I do think there is also a base rate fallacy going on in the underlying articles. Eg, the NYT piece compares Youngkin’s +2 win to McCain’s -6 in 2008 but doesn’t look at relative shares. And most of the change for Ds happened before 2020! So it’s not rly a 2021 story... at all

https://twitter.com/shanegoldmacher/status/1457040275214413824

To be clear, I think geographic polarization is the Democrats’ biggest long-term weakness, mainly bc of the issues it creates in the Senate and in single-member districts (by making gerrymandering easier). It’s a big story that should prompt substantial reflection among Ds!

https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/1457477463148150787

Eg this chart is essentially burned into my retinas

I guess I also don't find the "well some people said this vague thing and I think it's wrong" angle to be a great motivation for a piece when we already knew the thing was wrong, like, 3 years ago; The narrow 2018 GA gov elec was effectively just as polarized as GA in 2016/20!