Thanks to the US withdrawing militarily from the MidEast, regional states such as Iran and Saudi have begun exploring their own diplomacy. The neocons had warned that if the US pulled back, chaos would ensue. Instead we're seeing regional diplomacy.
But here's the thing...>>
Haley's comments suggest the neocons knew this all along. They knew diplomacy would break out, not chaos, and that the US was not needed in the region.
Yet that's what they were against all along: Stability in the Middle East and regional powers finding ways to get along >>
So now that we see that the Saudis and the Iranians are trying to talk to each other, instead of seeing that as a positive, Nikki reveals her true aim and condems it as if efforts for peace are in and of themselves something bad. >>
The Foreign policy Nikki Haley represents is not only an absolute disaster for the MidEast, it's also a disaster for the US because it aims to keep America engaged in war in the Middle East ENDLESSLY.
All the more reason for the US to pull out of the region militarily...//
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So I have a piece out with new revelations on why the Iran talks are stalling. It’s controversial because it shows that the picture painted thus far- the hold-up is cuz Iran is uninterested or feels immune to US sanctions-is incomplete, to say the least >> responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/10/20/rev…
The key problem from the Iranian side has been the unreliability of US sanctions relief. What good is it if the US exits the deal under the next GOP President? Every time Iran goes in and out of the deal, Iran’s economy is massively destabilized. >>
But here’s the thing: Iran first wanted guarantees that the next US Prez wouldnt quit the JCPOA. Biden said no. Iran shifted then & only sought a guarantee that Biden HIMSELF wouldnt reimpose sanctions.
Shockingly, Biden rejected that as well, diplomats in Iran & EU told me. >>
Fascinating story by @nytimes, but there are systemic flaws in its coverage of Israel/Iran. Don’t know Ronen Bergman, but @farnazfassihi is an outstanding reporter. Still, the systemic whitewashing of Israeli actions & motives is very troublesome.>>
2. No less than 3 times (!) does it cite Israel’s justification for its assassinations at face value: It’s solely to stop Iran’s (non-existent) “nuclear weapons program.” No mention that US intelligence assesses that Iran has NOT had an active weapons program since 2003. >>
3. All 3 cases are unjustifiably deferential to Israel's official line with not even an ounce of scrutiny of the statements of a gov the Times itself has reported seeks to start a war.
This type of deference is sadly how the @nytimes helped sell the Iraq war.>>
Blinken famously said in Jan that "the world doesn’t organize itself." It was a staunch endorsement of American domination, lest chaos or a negative counter-order would emerge.
But is is Blinken right? Not quite. A short thread: >>
Contrary to Blinken's prediction, we're increasingly seeing that when the US steps back militarily, others step forward diplomatically.
The US is not the only country that can organize the world, nor is it necessarily bad for the US when regional actors take on this role.>>
Beijing, Moscow, Tehran & Islamabad are trying to figure out how to curtail AlQaeda and ISIS in Afghanistan and help bring stability to the country. They are in the neighborhood, they pay the price for instability, they should shoulder this. That is actually GOOD for the US.>>
Major escalation by Israel in the past 24h. Israel’s UN ambassador says the quiet part out loud, admitting that Israel seeks a coup d’etat and regime change in Iran.
The same day, Israel’s Defense Minister says “we need to take military action against Iran"
But there’s more… >>
This week, the Israeli think tank BESA published a piece titled: “Dismantle Iran Now.” It calls on Biden to militarily help Iranian ethnic minorities dismantle the Iranian state violently. “The disintegration of Iran would be a blessing,” BESA writes. besacenter.org/dismantle-iran…
Whatever one thinks of the Iranian gov, this much is clear: Experience shows that as Mideast states collapse, democracy and stability DO NOT FOLLOW. Rather, there will be war, instability, refugee flows & radicalization.>>
MUST READ by @globalsarang: Liberal internationalism - or more accurately, American primacy - is not the answer to the challenges of our time, but one of the causes of it.
American primacy’s stress on democracy lacks credibility. Washington is militant on violations of rights by its geopolitical adversaries. But when it comes to U.S. allies and partners in the Global South, they rarely go beyond nudges and occasional slaps on the wrist. >>
Democracy and human rights are only of marginal importance in the liberal primacy project, except when they can act as force-multipliers in the great power competition framework. >>
Surely, @QuincyInst’s latest paper will cause some minds in DC to explode
@Matthew_petti & I test the DC analysis that a single "bad actor" - invariably aligned against the US - accounts for most of the region's ailments. If it only was this simple…>> quincyinst.org/report/no-clea…
Our quantitative and qualitative study published today shows that there is a set of powerful states who all are ROUGHLY EQUALLY INTERVENTIONIST. There is no one outlier - whether Iran, Libya, or Iraq - who more than the others is responsible for regional instability.>>
Six states have been the most interventionist: Iran, Israel, Qatar, Saudi, Turkey & UAE. Iran is highly interventionist but not an outlier. The others are often equally interventionist — and at times even more so. UAE & Turkey have actually recently surpassed Iran.>>