Share this page!

Rob Ford Profile picture
Twitter logo
8 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The general trend in the polls is quite clear if you take the averages (thus ignoring the noise from sampling variation and ST effects) - slow but steady decline in Cons since "vaccine bounce" peak in early summer, and slow but steady rises in Lab and Green numbers
To me the most interesting polling story that no one is talking about is the rise of the Greens - they were polling at record levels even before COP26, and had a very strong local elections performance in May too. Double digit Grn shares now common.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p…
Strong Green polling is a bit of a double edged sword for Labour - probably comes from voters who would be Lab rather than Con if forced to choose, so weakens Lab position. But in the harsh climate of a FPP GE with few Grn targets many of these votes may end up in the Lab column
The fantastic @p_surridge has of course been one of the few paying attention to this:

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Rob Ford

Rob Ford Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @robfordmancs

Rob Ford Profile picture
4 Nov
And another scandal driven by-election on the way soon, it seems. Super-interesting one too, given controversial circumstances in which Webbe got the seat, the massive swing against her in 2019 and the open ambitions of her predecessor Keith Vaz to recover seat he held 1987-2019
A whopping 15 point swing against Labour in Leicester E in 2019, by a country mile largest swing against the party in a highly diverse seat. Leicester E's predominantly British Indian community really did not like the late imposition of Corbyn ally Webbe en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leicester…
As for Vaz, who is chair of the local party, he has been on manoeuvers for a while - either for himself or a family member... huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/keith-va…
Read 4 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
4 Nov
"Its a safe seat. A rabbit with a blue rosette would win there".

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Ches…
"Its a safe seat. Massive Tory majorities for decades".

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_East…
"Its a safe seat. They don't count Tory votes there, they weigh them."

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ribb…
Read 8 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
4 Nov
Lets review the last 24 hrs:
Govt whips vote to gut standards oversight, barely wins
Opposition refuses to participate in new kangeroo court
Cabinet ministers make fools of themselves defending kangeroo court
Govt abandons kangeroo court and MP it was created to save
MP resigns
(I should add MP resigns after finding out the govt has abandoned him when a BBC journalist phones him while he is out shopping. No one from the govt thought to let him know).
Coming opposition by-election campaign will presumably be months of telling North Shropshire voters exactly how and why they have to elect a new MP. Not really much need to do anything else.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
3 Nov
Interesting thread - a couple of thoughts it prompts. Firstly, if the "nothing matters" scenario is defined as "one party is dominant in the polls and nothing seems to shift this" then there are several long periods of this being the case in last 40 yrs or so
1983-1989: "Nothing matters, Cons have big poll lead and majority"
1993-1997: "Nothing matters, Lab has huge poll lead, Cons are doomed
1997-2006: "Nothing matters, Lab has big poll lead and majority"

That's 19 years in the last 38 - or 50% of the time
However, most of the last 15 years has been in the alternative "stuff might matter" scenario - either polling is tight, or Commons balance of power is tight, or both. So a whole political generation has come of age with that as the norm. Political dominance is unusual to them
Read 7 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
2 Nov
I don't think this problem is limited to climate change - miserablism handicaps all sorts of progressive campaigns. Telling people everything is awful and going to get worse is a great way to motivate your core activists, but a terrible way to motivate anyone else.
I have noticed this time and again on imm and race, two areas I research. Any time I post some of the wide range of evidence showing that racial prejudice is in steady, LT decline, or that immigration attitudes are improving, my replies fill up with progressive miserabilists.
It is a curious mentality I still rather struggle to understand (being by nature a cautious optimist). I think part of it is an Eeyorish wallowing in the awfulness of things, but a bigger part is status signalling - "I am smart &virtuous because I recognise the horror of it all."
Read 5 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
2 Nov
"The British General Election of 2019", with @drjennings @ProfTimBale and @p_surridge , is out today! To celebrate, and hopefully encourage your interest, here's a thread of threads.

amazon.co.uk/British-Genera…
A thread by @ProfTimBale picking out his favourite cartoons from the book. Britain really is blessed with some outstanding political cartoonists, and their generously shared images really help us tell the story
A thread from me live tweeting the election campaign events day by day - this one will continue all the way to December 13th...
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @robfordmancs has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @robfordmancs!

Read all threads by @robfordmancs

:(