In which I get a nice shoutout from @DLeonhardt in his updated look at the COVID red/blue divide:
nytimes.com/2021/11/08/bri…
FWIW, I’m just waiting on Florida county data to be released later this morning before posting the latest red/blue divide update (I have every other state updated already). Stay tuned…
📣 NOW LIVE: Here's an updated look at county-level #COVID19 case & death rates by partisan lean & vaccination rates:
acasignups.net/21/11/08/weekl…
As I speculated about at the time, the red/blue COVID divide seems to have peaked around 2 weeks ago (case rates since June were 3x higher in the reddest tenth of the country; death rates 6x higher), but both seem to have started to shrink since then (at least for the now).
AS OF 11/07/21, the COVID case rate since June in the reddest tenth of the U.S. was running 2.9x higher than in the bluest tenth, while the death rate since June was running 5.8x higher.
HOWEVER, the *nonpartisan* view of the same data based on *vaccination rates* is showing just as stark a division. The case rate since June is still over 2.2x higher in the least-vaxxed tenth than the most-vaxxed tenth, while the death rate is now running 4.4x higher.
Here's the death rates since June on a nonpartisan graph (based on vaxx rates) side by side with the partisan graph (based on Trump 2020 vote %).

Almost a perfect mirror...except the latter measure is even MORE stark:
THEY'RE ON TO US.

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More from @charles_gaba

8 Nov
Yeah, that's right: We have exactly 1 year before Election Day 2022 and I'm launching Phase 2 of my Dem candidate fundraising project.
Last cycle I raised $6 million for Dem candidates up & down the ballot.

I'm at $86,000 so far halfway through this cycle. Let's catch up a bit, shall we?
secure.actblue.com/donate/senateb…
Read 4 tweets
7 Nov
📣 WEEKLY UPDATE: U.S. #COVID19 vaccination rates by county & Trump vote:
acasignups.net/21/11/07/weekl…
It should be fascinating to see whether the slope or correlation level (R2) of this graph changes starting on Thanksgiving (that's when the first batch of 5-11 yr olds getting their *second* Pfizer shot should start showing up in the data reports)...
As you can see, the partisan correlation rate increased continuously from the moment eligibility for all adults started in mid-March all the way through mid-September...at which point it basically plateaued. It's remained steady ever since.
Read 6 tweets
7 Nov
MICHIGAN FOLKS: I just took my first phone survey of the 2022 election cycle, via an outfit calling itself VRI Research, focused almost exclusively on the bullshit "Secure MI Vote" ballot proposal.
michigandems.com/toolkit/declin…
The "Secure MI Vote" proposal is a scam; DO NOT SIGN THE PETITION. The MI GOP's goal is to get enough signatures that they can use a jaw-droppingly stupid loophole in the MI Constitution which would let them pass it into law without allowing @GovWhitmer the ability to veto it.
As for the survey itself, at times it sounded like a push poll, but at other times it got very confusing--several of the ways the arguments given in favor/against the proposal were worded were double-negatives, making it difficult to tell which way the argument was even leaning.
Read 5 tweets
5 Nov
Huh. This article about Biden donors complaining includes an interesting passage… nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/…
I find this bit kind of bemusing seeing how I personally raised $6 million for various Dem candidates last cycle (including around $70,000 for Biden, I believe) and never asked for a thank you, much less a phone call or ambassadorship…
Oh! Turns out I actually raise $103,000 for him! I guess I should’ve been interviewed for the article?
Read 4 tweets
4 Nov
The family seems very nice, but:

1. They have NINE KIDS. That's ELEVEN mouths to feed. I applaud the couple for being willing to foster/adopt so many, but I wonder how the story narrative would've differed if they'd been a Black couple w/9 kids?
2. The wife claims that "In June $1 was worth $1, now it's 70 cents"...making it sound like the inflation rate has been *43% since June*, which I find...questionable.
3. She claims a gallon of milk was $1.99 in March, and today it's $2.79.

In reality, the average price for a gallon of milk nationally appears to have been $3.55 in March vs. $3.65 in October.
ams.usda.gov/sites/default/…
Read 21 tweets

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