Thread by @Gilesyb

An interesting thread, but it is based on @TheIFS work, and what they *explicitly don't* say is that taking a particular course has a CAUSAL effect of making you poorer. *This* is the work you should read ... and what it says: 1/
ifs.org.uk/uploads/public…

https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1457630169984868352

I am sure the CPS means to be careful. But different courses *select different types*. Unless you track what the same type of person would do taking different choices, you cannot say "taking this course HAD THIS IMPACT" (as this tweet appears to)

https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1457631281144074241?s=20

. 2/

Saying "you are worse off *for going to university*" implies a causal consequence. And to reiterate, what IFS says is that they are estimating the distribution of govt spending by course, and this" is not intended to be a valuation of the merits of different courses" 3/

There is surely a fallacy of composition here. The people who go into Agriculture (the lowest value in terms of repaid loans, see the IFS report) are perhaps always going to work in farming, and it isn't the course that made them. Maybe they are better farmers for it? 4/

Likewise, people going into creative arts. Perhaps these industries are demand-determined to a large degree? So there will always be creative workers - and *maybe* they are better for having studied it first? 5/

I don't know. I agree the Coalition cut FE too hard. The tuition fee system produces perverse incentives. But it is vital to be careful when sending messages.
Lower salaries for creative grads *does not mean*
taking a creative degree *made* you poorer 6/6

(until someone takes a cohort of people capable and keen to take Creative Arts courses, stops them taking them, and then tracks their performance vs those who were allowed to stay, then *you cannot say that taking a creative arts degree made you poorer*. Sorry, but it is hard)

For people still retweeting/liking this: I have clarified that CPS did base their study on more than one IFS report, and the second makes a big attempt to control for factors so as to make an attempt at the causal work