1. The world of innovation is spiky and appears to be getting spikier, according the later NBER working paper by Bill Kerr and Brad Chattergoon at Harvard Business School: nber.org/papers/w29456?…
2. The study tracks patents for all patents, and for software and non-software patents from January 1976-December 2020. Here are some of the key findings ...
3. "U.S. patenting has become much more spatially concentrated around tech clusters like SanFrancisco and Boston compared to the 1970s, making these places more productive for researchers ... important for business organization, and central to high-tech startups."
4.The period saw 6 tech hubs - San Francisco,
Boston, Seattle, San Diego, Denver, and Austin -consolidate and massively increase their share of patents.
Boston, Seattle, San Diego, Denver, and Austin -consolidate and massively increase their share of patents.
5. "The rise of the six tech centers is very stark ... The six tech centers account for 11.3% of patents from 1975-1979, but surge to 34.2% for 2015- 2019. San Francisco’s growth is from 4.6% to 18.4%" Yowza ...
6." The five largest population centers show the
largest drop, from 32.2% to 18.6%. By contrast, the aggregate decline for the other 270 cities,
from 45.5% to 41.0%, is much less. Non-urban areas also decline from 11.0% to 6.1%."
largest drop, from 32.2% to 18.6%. By contrast, the aggregate decline for the other 270 cities,
from 45.5% to 41.0%, is much less. Non-urban areas also decline from 11.0% to 6.1%."
7. "This reallocation is remarkable and has not been documented in prior work. Indeed, because the
reallocation is among big cities, this movement of well more than 10% of patents is almost completely orthogonal to the standard elasticity measured across the full city size."
reallocation is among big cities, this movement of well more than 10% of patents is almost completely orthogonal to the standard elasticity measured across the full city size."
8. The 6 "tech centers account for 45.4% of software patents after 2015, more than double their starting
share of 20.2%. San Francisco again features prominently with 25.8% of software patents filed
after 2015. This reallocation pulled from all regions."
share of 20.2%. San Francisco again features prominently with 25.8% of software patents filed
after 2015. This reallocation pulled from all regions."
9."tech clusters are also important for non-software patents, growing from 11.0% to 23.1% across the period. San Francisco is 11.1%. However, the share for the 270 MSAs grows slightly from 45.5% to 48.1%. ..."
10. "The shift is instead from the five largest cities in 1980, which fall from 32.3% to 20.0%."
11. They conclude that: "The four MSAs that attracted the biggest absolute change in patent counts from
1975 to 2020 are four of our tech clusters (in order): San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, and San Diego ..."
1975 to 2020 are four of our tech clusters (in order): San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, and San Diego ..."
12. "The next three cities in terms of the biggest absolute change in patent counts over the period are Los Angeles, New York City, and Detroit, three of our five large 1980 population centers."
13."the major Rust Belt cities (such as Buffalo, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh) also lose a substantial share of patenting since the 1970s."
14. I could go on but you get the picture. Patents are very, very spiky. It is doubtful any post-COVID shifts can fully reverse these trends.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
