If Johnson does get dumped by the Tories, how much of "spend and borrow to stay popular in Mansfield" would survive? There is no significant liberal Tory wing, but a coalition of austerians/authoritarians likely... so once again the Govt changes without an election 1/...
2/ One real fissure inside the Tories is over Chinese/Russian oligarchic money and control... numerous RUSI/RIIA types want an end to foreign manipulation of our politics and a stronger European defence focus - and so does Labour... so "Global Britain" probly gets ditched ...
3/ ... and for the Tory right Net Zero is the new EU... would a "f*** net zero" candidate emerge? They would have significant support in the tabloids if they did...
4/ ... of course the whole Tory party is now "anti-woke" but there's an uneasy parallelogram of forces over eg Stonewall, University free speech etc, so it would be a brave contender that stuck to the Carrie position ... indeed with her gone a political space opens up...
5/... finally, will we ever see a "stop trolling Scotland" candidate for Tory leader - who wants to save the Union thru constitutional reform? Unlikely as they're culturally adrift from modern Scottish civil society... soooo...
6/ ... if Johnson falls - these odds seem right *if* Sunak can bring himself to stick with fiscal expansion; if not, my money is on Truss #1 - the only plausible outsider is Mordaunt at 37/1 
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