Thread by @TennantReed

Observing #cop26 side event "Decarbonising Transport: Driving Implementation Actions and Turning Targets into a Transformation" with the OECD ITF and FIA Foundation.
[came in slightly late for second speaker, following Namibian transport minister on fleet transform]

Rob de Jong: big challenge is 1b new vehicles to global fleet by 2050. 99% in low and middle income countries. 2/3 of vehicles will be there. How do Kenya, Vietname, Peru, Namibia join shift to zero emissions mobility? What needs to be done to help them?

Rob: if they can't join we can't hit Paris goals.
Opportunity to leapfrog. Most of these countries import vehicles and fuels.
But we're not there yet. Not in a position to make UK-style 2030 commitments to phase out new ICE vehicles.

Rob: And still lack right policies and standards;
upfront costs are a barrier; lack of infrastructure; and approach to batteries at end of life.

Moderator: tell us about GEF funding for LIC EV access?
Rob: Multialteral funds are now massively supporting low income country electric mobility. Not just GEF!
But not just about funding availability; must have right programs, standards, project design.

Next: Rachel Muncrief, ICCT: Zero Emission Vehicle Council collaborates to accelerate deployment of ZEVs in their own markets and worldwide. Why?
World transport demand is projected to increase. So must focus on tech that can get 80%+ emissions cuts or wont' hit targets.

Rachel: EVs are the answer for cars; to get fleet there by 2050 we need 100% sales by 2030.
Today they are 5% of sales. Won't get there by market forces alone, guaranteed. Need strong policies telling OEMs to invest. Also need to support deployment, infrastructure.

Rachel: Huge package of measures needed to hit 100% EV share of new sales by 2030.

Moderator: definitely not just a matter of waiting for it to happen on its own.

Next: Leo ? of IEA
We've seen 1.5% pa improvement in global vehicle fuel consumption in past decade, but only 0.5% in last two years.
In EU, average fuel consumption has been decreasing significantly, driven by strong efficiency policies.

Leo: strong improvement in Chinese fleet too, driven by strong progress of EV sales (supprotive policy)
USA: no progress in recent years
Developing and emerging economies: no progress (and no fuel efficiency standards)

Leo: SUVs increased from 20% global fleet to 44%. They consume more fuel than medium vehicles and are making it harder to get emissions down.
Moderator: move to larger vehicles ate up half or more of efficiency improvements that otherwise would have been made.

Moderator: what other policies are key beyond firm reg of CO2?
Leo: policies to support electric vehicles; EVs are most effective way to reduce emissions, confirmed by our well-to-wheels analysis;

Leo: Tackling vehicle size is effective (Japan, France, Norway have registration taxes by weight, and have had sharp reductions in registered vehicle weight).

Next: Lewis Fulton at UC Davis.
We need 80% reductions worldwide in light vehicles by 2050; that's a huge challenge and leading markets must go faster.

LF: Our Zero Pathway Report broke world into 4 groups:
* leading markets (N Eur; Cali) - growing EV share now; need to transition completely to ZEVs by 2035 and be well on the way by 2030; 75% by 2030 is aggressive but doable

LF: * close followers (large OECD countries) - can transition by 2035 on slightly slower track

* progressive importers - less control over what is built but more control over imports (2040 transition)

* rest of world - is 90% there by 2035.

Moderator: 2 key policies?

LF: some policies make sense for all, others may be more specific.
Foundation: get prices right, stop subsidising fossil fuels. Tax fossil fuels. Probably carbon pricing, either direct or cap and trade.

LF:
Beyond: technical standards; public procurement; policy to decarbonise power sector; strong policies to promote EV uptake and promote efficiency (CO2 standards, incl for ICEV - we will sell another billion of these no matter how fast we move); ZEV mandates.

LF: Vehicle import requirements are another tool - not just vehicle age or emissions limits, but also eventually ZEV import mandates.

Next section, new moderator - from OECD ITF: Building Momentum

Moderator: looking at heavy duty road freight, aviation and maritime.
Panellists:
Dr Yari of ITF
Lauren of WEF
Mark of Airbus
Henne of Trucknet

Yari ITF: scale of transformation is daunting, especially on hard-to-abate maritime aviation road freight - 40% of transport emissions today. Freight set to double, aviation triple.
We're trying to support with evidence of effectiveness and cost of mitigation measures.

ITF: evidence based policy is crucial. We know what's needed, need to go from ambition to action.
Just made a new project supported by EU Commission fund Horizon 2020 to speed transformation of the sector. Learn from best practice. Objective to scale up innovation urgently

ITF: 98% of NDCs mention transport, 80% mention measures, but only 60% have related targets.
ITF has 30 participating economies now, all the major players. Looking at not just 2050 but medium term.

Lauren WEF: WEF is about public private cooperation. We have communities from private investors, banking and finance, aviation and shipping. We're leveraging that and taking value chain approach.

Lauren: Fruitful with hard-to-abate; working with producers and demand side, finance, government to pull all levers at once.
Demand side important - big players need to address their scope 3 and are signed to science based targets. That leads to addressing travel and freight.

Lauren: Buyers' alliances and demand side commitments show appetite and cost sharing.

Lauren: Financing: each sector recognises need for innovation and seeks finance. But requires finance to have much closer client relationship to support decisions. New types of finance with a little more risk are needed.

Lauren: government policies are essential support, but need some standardisation - more similar the approaches, easier for corporates to scale.
Democratisation of global energy sector also important; finding sources outside of traditional energy-rich / oil-rich countries.

Mark of Airbus: whole aviation industry is now committed to carbon neutrality by 2050. Declarations by civil aviation but also manufacturers, airports.
Airbus wants to pioneer transformation with four pillars:
technology
sustainable aviation fuel
better operations
offsetting

Mark: Airbus focussed on tech. We've reduced emissions 50% over thirty years. 60g CO2 per passenger-km. But want to go further. Be first to deliver true zero-emission aircraft by 2035.
3 concepts, all powered by H2, 1500mi

Mark: WHy H2? Can burn, use in fuel cell, combine with CO2 capture to make synthetic fuel.
Very promising pathways, and not just to 2050.

Mark: Sustainable aviation fuel - today's aircraft will fly 20-30 years. Need to tackle. Last week flew an A350 with 100% SAF; can achieve 80% global lifecycle abatement.

Mark: Operations: today we are flying to Montreal from France with new approach that reduces fuel burn 5%.

Offsetting: still necessary. Global scheme CORSIA is in place to offset worldwide.

Mark: putting it all together we believe we can get to zero emissions quite soon.

Moderator: these pillars are relevant to other transport sectors too.

Henne of Trucknet: conventional management of transport is not sustainable. Waste from freight is about 30% - trucks running empty with no cargo. Our aim is to reduce empty miles with smart matching of cargo to capacity. Supply chains use huge resources and account for big GHG.

Henne: supply chains are looking for solutions. One of my goals is a sharing economy model for transport to save resources and reduce emissions.
Course Company Optimisation with big data and cloud platform and machine learning improves efficiency.

Henne: in Glasgow all are looking for solutions to change BAU. Trucknet is a stepping stone to commitment to net zero by 2050. Plus less pollution and traffic accidents on the way.

Moderator: Yari: what are the big challenges still to be overcome?
Y: Many! Uncertainty is key; rapid adoption of vehicles needed but hard to see which tech solution will be best. Delays investment in infrastructure too.

Y: Commercial viability of alts; zero carbon ships still more expensive than conventional. Externality not really incorporated. Need to move to carbon price and market-based mechanisms, and fuel standards for shipping.

Y: Example of success: rollout of electric ferries in Norway - 40+ on order. Driven by model development and dock infrastructure investments.

Mod: how is aviation transitioning?
Lauren WEF: we know SAFs exist today, certified, may account for 75% of fuel demand in 2050. For long haul flight they will be necessary.

Lauren: We're looking at how to unlock SAF scaling:
certainty and demand;
2050 commitments to break chicken-and-egg lack of investment.
Demand side commitments from aviation sector as a whole are important. 10% SAF demand by 2030 is important to commit to.

Lauren: 10% SAF globally could need $250b investment - not small change. Must make finance comfortable and projects bankable.
Also working on SAF Certificate Program - need accountable legitimate way of assessing scope 3 emissions impacts of SAFs, aligned with GHG protocol

Lauren: there are credible pathways for aviation to transform and fly net zero by 2050. Economic benefits of aviation are crucial and should spread to more nations without much access now.

Mark: aviation has momentum now, need it also with energy producers and investors.
Energy challenge is common: decarbonise this sector to decarbonise others. Need global policy pushes for this. Global switch from oil to electricity, which we want to be part of.

Mark: Support of policy makers is moving; important ICAO summit next year to decide global policy. Mandate in Europe from 2 to 5 to 63% SAF. United States action is visible too.
World is moving, needs to go faster, but everything is on the table to achieve zero e aviation.

Mod: success story on road emission reduction?
Henne: Trucknet established 3 years ago, idea was sharing economy model to reduce empty miles. Today 500k trucks connect to Trucknet platform. In 2020, joint pilot with client Renault checked effectiveness.

Henne: across Renault transport 370 bids, Trucknet users won 60% plus bids, usage saved 17% saving on weekly cost of trips. Possible to save 20% on cost with further optimisation. Saves cost and reduces footprint.
The wind is blowing towards sustainability - go with it.

Moderator wraps up by promoting GEF Zero Pathways Report gef.eu/publication/tr…