Down with a bad cold today, but if there was one thing that could breathe life back into my mucal husk it was always CBAM. Interesting discussion at section 2.6 of the @ozprodcom 2022-23 Trade and Assistance Review! pc.gov.au/ongoing/trade-… The PC considers circumstances where a CBAM might amount to trade protection, as apart of gearing up to report on a potential Australian one.
Seen in that context, their discussion is much better and more sophisticated than in the recent past! Of course I still have nuances.

The Spoiler Window has now expired on the Let Me Sum Up podcast 2023 Holiday Special, and it’s time to announce the results of the rigorous and universally respected Wonky Awards for Beat Paper of 2023!
(but there’s still time to listen if you missed it: )podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/let… Papers were judged by @LukeMenzel @FrankieMuskovic @alison_reeve and me based broadly on quality, digestibility, impact on our thinking and impact on policy. We only looked at papers we covered on the pod in 2023. We did not vote on our own papers!

One theme at #COP28 is pushback by big developing countries on “unilateral trade measures” related to climate see Brazil here). That appears to mean not just EU #CBAM but US solar tariffs, rumblings about GASSA, & maybe green industrial policy overall.
But it’s a weird debate! One of the antI-UTM protagonists is BASIC (Brazil South Africa India China). But India is vigorously building up its solar PV sector to shut out China, for similar reasons to the US!

At the China Pavilion at #cop27 for the 8th Global Climate Change Think Tank Forum with Vice Minister for Environment:
VM: since Lima this is 8th of these think tank fora at COP.
We need systematic approaches to climate strategy. Promote low carbon transition of energy sector VM: key to development of green low carbon economy. China has explored this for a decade. In 2020 Xi pledged to peak emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060. In 2021 coal has dropped from 72% to 56% of energy consumption since 2005, fasted change ever.

At @IETA side event at #cop27 on Frontiers In Carbon Pricing
Moderated by @RobertStavins of Harvard Project of Climate Agreements.
RS: we look for solutions that are effective, limit costs and are politically achievable. Have 100 research initiatives around the world RS: here to discuss potential@of carbon pricing instruments to help meet Paris objectives, via multilateral, regional, national or subnational measures. 61 jurisdictions have done carbon prices, mostly via ETS, but few would match economists’ ideals.

Another China Pavilion side event at #cop27 on fiscal and tax policies in China
Zhang Liao, Jumbo Consulting
Inconsistent carbon accounting between Chinese regions make an integrated market and plan difficult. Central government needs to harmonize. S1: look at industrial emissions. Changsha has a relatively clean industry sector and a balanced energy mix.
We’ve released a plan for local government integration on total control of air pollution and emissions reduction. Crucial for sustainable development.

@Bowenchris speaks at #cop27 high level segment, opening with a statement in a Torres Strait language.
- Australia back as positive active willing partner on climate action.
- lifted 2030 target to 43%
- 82% RE within a decade.
- transition a challenge, an opportunity, necessary CB: we remain committed to last year’s consensus on 1.5C. Cost of@letting this fall to wayside is too great. Threatens Blue Pacific.
We’re lifting assistance to Pacific and seeking to host COP31 with Pacific.
We know the story if the world fails to act; our cohosting will …

At China Pavilion event on China carbon markets at #cop27 (an hour in)

Duan Maosheng, Tsinghua Uni: saying that China is promoting Green Gold Initiative cooperation with other nations under Article 6 mechanisms DM: Article 6 mechanism units can cut the cost of China’s ETS in future but there’s a long way to go to integrate with China’s system.
Linking 🇨🇳 ETS requires data and management of fluctuations and market liquidity. Art 6.2 gives a very good accounting system as foundation

At #cop27 side event on redefining the energy sector
Catherine Stewart, Canadian climate ambassador:
🇨🇦 is setting big targets and providing large funding for a range of clean energy techs including renewables and small modular nuclear.
We’ve invested billions in smart grid CS: 🇨🇦 leads Powering Past Coal Alliance with 🇬🇧. Since 2017 launch 165 national govts have joined
At COP26 Canada announced $1b contrib to coal transition funds for many developing countries.
Targeted support is also needed, incl private finance mobilization.

At #Article6 negotiation on 6.2 at #cop27
Co-chair declares we will need every minute this week to conclude work. Par23 will be left for next year. Informal consultations begin after this contact group. Could continue in an Inf-Inf [goes through various elements of mode of work] Bahamas for AOSIS: thanks for oath forward - can you step it out day by day what you want us to accomplish as a group?
CC: to repeat: today we start informal, on registries we need an inf inf
Tuesday more Inf Inf

At side event on Scaling Up Engineered Carbon Removals in the @IETA pavilion at #cop27
Jarad Daniels, GCCSI: we need as much engineered and nature based removals as we can get ASAP but today’s event is about engineered. Feat.
@CarbonWrangler Julio Friedmann of Carbon Direct, an end-to-end carbon removals company

Eabhard Pernot of Clean Air Task Force

Eve Tamme of Climate Principals advisory firm

Eli-Mitchell Larson of Carbon Gap

Steve Kelly of 1.5 International climate deployment arm of RCV

At the Climate Change Performance Index 2022 Report launch at #cop27 from Germanwatch, CAN, NewClimate

Looks at emissions, energy use, climate policy Niklas Hohne: on policy we ask 450 global experts to rate each country’s climate policy
Energy crisis is a big problem, with dash for gas and new fossil infrastructure - they didn’t need it if they started early on efficiency

Australian Delegation Briefing at the start of Week 2 of #cop27 with @Bowenchris and @jennymcallister introduced by Kushla Munro CB: Australia wants to talk to everyone about our potential as a green energy superpower and be a welcoming place for Australians and all at COP

At #cop27 Japan pavilion event on industrial decarbonisation, border measures and climate clubs with @SenWhitehouse and others
Q: would China be welcome to join a club/get recognition if it extends its ETS?
W: sure, but needs to be a real policy that produces equivalent result Q: what about countries that can’t afford to subsidize green production and are shut out of advanced markets?
W: reason US haven’t been able to move forward faster on accelerating global clean energy transition is fossil money; holding that sector to account is important

#cop27 CBAM side event about to start at the Morocco Pavilion, Area C Building 2. Featuring great experts galore, and me! First up Tim Figures at BCG: seeing intensifying interest from business in what was once an academic concept. EU now probably bringing one in from 2026. No doubt that CBAM is really cutting through to boards of energy intensive multinationals in Europe and beyond.

@The_AiGroup response to the Victorian energy and climate announcements: targets are very big, infra will help achieve power part, lots of work needed on rest of economy’s transition paths in coord w feds, immediate energy crisis needs focus too aigroup.com.au/news/media-cen… “Major energy infrastructure commitments will help Victoria meet energy users’ needs in the 2030s and achieve its challenging new targets. What remains unsolved, by any level of government, is the immediate crisis of energy affordability driven by events in Europe”

What might East 🇦🇺 cost of high wholesale electricity & gas prices be?
Let’s get speculative!
Assume demand per ISP Central; price per current wholesale electricity futures & ACCC netback gas.
Maybe 2023-26 household & biz costs are $90b more than if prices were at 2021 levels. But retailers and big buyers have a portfolio of contracts and hedges that will moderate impacts overall; and longer term gas contracts will be better than current spot.
So if we scale down assumed average prices we get something like $57b extra energy user cost 2023-26.

Attended an excellent update from @DELWP_Vic on the progress of the Victorian Gas Substitution Roadmap. Well attended, lots of info and time very (vigorous!) Q&A.
They shared stakeholder feedback to date and interim modelling results; but no draft policy directions yet! 1/8 Stakeholder feedback to date has been supportive of gas substitution overall, with electrification the fave path followed by H2&bio and CCS some way behind. Industrial gas users nervous about aspects of cost and practicality. Networks nervous about elec infra implications. 2/8

Observing #cop26 side event "Decarbonising Transport: Driving Implementation Actions and Turning Targets into a Transformation" with the OECD ITF and FIA Foundation.
[came in slightly late for second speaker, following Namibian transport minister on fleet transform] Rob de Jong: big challenge is 1b new vehicles to global fleet by 2050. 99% in low and middle income countries. 2/3 of vehicles will be there. How do Kenya, Vietname, Peru, Namibia join shift to zero emissions mobility? What needs to be done to help them?

Watching side event "Further, Faster, Together: State-Federal Partnership" at the US Center at #COP26 .
Feat. Massachusetts rep for US Climate Alliance.
State leadership was v important in absence of Fed leadership. Ma put politics aside to grow clean energy economy, leg targets. Ma: State climate leaders were relieved when Biden Admin renewed climate leadership, but now have to run faster and build durable solutions.
Climate can't be a political issue, has to be American and global.

Watching #cop26 event “Australian Leadership on Climate” with @ukinaustralia @The_AiGroup and a star studded panel from @BCAcomau @IGCC_Update @NationalFarmers @unionsaustralia @ACOSS @cleannrgcouncil @AusConservation @WWF_Australia @CarbonMarketIns Innes Willox Ai Group boss welcomes. Collaborative effort between Australian diverse peak bodies and others with the UK High Commission during a critical global event, COP26, to push forward the effort on climate. We’ve seen a lot of reporting and there is more to come.