Unfortunate news: battery prices will probably not go down for a few years as the price of metals (especially Lithium) soars. We really need new mines!
🧵
lithiumstoragebattery.com/news-lithium-b…
Several manufactures have indicated that they will increase prices.
greencarcongress.com/2021/10/202110…
mineralprices.com/electric-car-b…
This was predicted already of course (e.g. by @JamesTFrith of @BloombergNEF), since improvements in manufacturing mean that the biggest costs are now to be found in the cathode material that now accounts for more than half of the battery cost.
Or as the @IEA aptly puts it: "'Sustained' rise in battery metals prices without new mines"
spglobal.com/marketintellig…
Still I'm not that worried in the long term. I still remember how everyone was predicting the end of cheap solar because silicon prices where spiking as solar cells overtook the chip industries demand.
Turns out new mines did come and slashed the price of silicon for solar cells. (Partly because solar needs a bit less pure silicon than the chip industry.)
Also, market prices don't tell the whole story as many manufacturers have long term contracts off the market.
Will the high prices wake up the mining industry and will we see new mines opening or not? I think we will see them faster than expected but I'm far from certain how this will play out.

Interesting times!
/end
@alexjadecove @MinviroLtd You are the experts. Any thoughts on this?
Many of my nerdy followers point out silicon is not mined and the problem was the factories that create silicon from raw materials were lacking. They are right. Sorry!

But my main point was that the supply chain needed upscaling, that caused problems, but they were temporary.
By the way: there are alternatives for nickel and cobalt (e.g. LFP batteries) but less so for lithium.
Still, sodium batteries are positioned as alternative for lithium by nobody less than CATL, one of the worlds largest battery manufacturers. scmp.com/business/compa…

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More from @AukeHoekstra

6 Nov
Coal has a target on it's back and is becoming uneconomical. Oil will decline as electric transportation rises.

Gas - which used to be touted as a transition fuel - will soon become our main problem.
One extra reason to phase out gas quickly is that production is so "leaky" that emissions are much higher than previously thought.

Abandoned fracking wells and countries like Russia are especially big culprits.
See the academic work of @howarth_cornell who put this on the map.
Stopping leaks and reducing venting during maintenance helps but as long as the worst polluters go scot-free it's like pushing water uphill.
Remember that e.g. Russia didn't sign the methane reduction pledge on #COP26.
Read 8 tweets
4 Nov
I see this as an another example of hurting young people by increasing climate anxiety based on exaggerated doom and gloom.

For a more fact based and constructive discussion that leads to actually solving the problem see the next tweet.
I LOVED this piece by @_HannahRitchie that explains how the doomism almost made her choose another career but how she (now a data ninja at @OurWorldInData) sees reason for hope in facts and numbers.
And that really matters because young people are our greatest asset in the fight against climate change.

Instead of making them depressed, we should support them as they choose careers in climate change and work to solve the problem.
Read 4 tweets
4 Nov
British media and @VolvoCarUK are resuscitating an erroneous study I corrected before in #Astongate.

But it's become WORSE!

Claim: it takes 70k miles for EVs to pay back battery production.

Reality: 16k miles.

Let me explain once again (sigh).
thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/art…
I research this at the @TUeindhoven and try to correct errors in the media. And this is not my first rodeo with @volvocars and @PolestarCars.

I already flagged this study in september 2020.
I also had a nice 3 hour chat with Polestars LCA lead.
Then the study was reused in an "independent" study that turned out to be published by the wife of a PR head at Aston Martin.

It became the saga of #AstonGate.

Here's a link to my (long) thread that takes you directly to the nice blog by @MLiebreich.
Read 15 tweets
3 Nov
The @FT with a very nice video on what the #COP26 is about and a scary visualization of where the earth will become "too hot to handle" for comfortable human living.
This picture shows Africa in the mean (SSP2-4.5) scenario: many people forced to migrate.
ft.com/content/072b5c…
The SSP5-8.5 they use as worst case is highly unlikely (not so much because of policy but because of technical development imho) but do we want to take even a 5% or so chance on billions of people having to migrate?
Anyway, one of the things we will have to face that climate change will hit the global south hardest with tens or hundreds of millions migrating and many millions dying because of heatwaves and famine after failed crops and we (the biggest emitters) are the cause.
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
STOP TELLING KIDS THEY'LL DIE FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
"Many young people feel like their future is in peril. To make progress on climate change, we must move past doomsday scenarios."

LOVE this timely piece by @_HannahRitchie from @OurWorldInData in @WIRED 🧵
wired.co.uk/article/climat…
Hannah mentions a recent survey among 16-25 olds in many countries: 55% said humanity was doomed due to climate change and 39% are hesitant to have children as a result.

Let that sink in dear people working on climate change communication! You are causing a massive depression.
Hannah is one of my heroes in this field with her relentless stream of @OurWorldInData articles that provide facts and meaning.

But she nearly walked away from the field herself because she just oscillated between anger and hopelessness! Is that what we want to achieve?
Read 8 tweets
2 Nov
I often disagree with what @nytdavidbrooks writes but this analysis strikes a chord.

I hope many people read it and find something in themselves that seems to be sorely lacking: tolerance and empathy for those not in "your" group.
theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
I direct a group that makes agent-based models to explore better worlds.

The first agent-based model showed that segregation is almost automatic and that you have to fight and design to avoid segregation.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schelling…
I think what US society is missing is more programs that actively mix rich and poor, different skin colors, left and right, Ivy league and uneducated.

It's much harder to be condescending or dismissive if you know people personally and they are mostly just like you.
Read 5 tweets

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