Brief thoughts on Russian military activity and deployments. The deployment does constitute a buildup, and not just north, or east of Ukraine. Elements of 41st CAA, 1st GTA, & 58th CAA reinforcing permanently based units of the 20th and 8th CAA & 22nd Army Corps in Crimea. 1/
The military activity is out of cycle. These are not routine drills, certification checks, and one would struggle to come up with innocuous explanations for what is being observed. It is not just about 41st CAA units moving up to Yelnya, or 1st GTA movements. 2/
This activity is not particularly public, or paired with coercive statements, compared to what took place in February-April earlier this year. It does appear that the Russian military has been ordered to position itself for a possible operation in the coming months. 3/
I don't see indicators that a Russian military offensive is imminent. Hence this is not a situation likely to unfold in the coming days or weeks. I would look to the winter, maybe after the holidays. Either way, I doubt a political decision has yet been made. 4/
The more ominous aspect of these deployments is a change in political tone. Russian leadership has been laying out a position on Ukraine this year, emphasizing red lines, such that it appears they believe use of force would be lucrative or necessary to achieve political aims. 5/
In retrospect, events back in the spring can be interpreted both as a public coercive warning, and as a dress rehearsal. Regarding Ukraine’s MoD denial last week. I don’t know what to make of it, but it was complete nonsense.
At the end of the day only Russian leadership knows if they intend to use force, on what scale, and when. So nothing is certain, but stepping back and looking over the course of this year, the trendline and indicators are decidedly negative.
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