Thread by @shayshinecastle

COVID briefing. Things are bad and have only been getting worse. Presentation: documents.bouldercolorado.gov/WebLink/DocVie…

Oh no! Dr. Chris Urbina, my fave local public health official, has retired.

Good for him. He will be missed.

Never thought I'd be the type of person to have a fave local public health official, but that's what beat reporting will do to you, I guess.

Dr. Lexi Nolen is still here, tho. And apologies... I think I've been forgetting the Dr. before her name for, like, ever. My b. (To be fair, it's not on her Zoom name, so I didn't know until someone just said it.)

"Unfortunately things are not going in the direction we hope," Dr. Nolen says. "Transmission is increasing. We are seeing an unusual number of deaths."

"Overall in Colorado, we are not doing a v good job," Dr. Nolen says.

Silver lining(?): Deaths and cases lower in BoCo than other counties.

"Our gap, really, in vaccinations, is among youth." Ages 18-29 have the lowest vax rate by far... every other age group (except for kids, which just started) is 77%+ vaccinated.

18-19 y.o. with at least partial vaccination: 55.2%
20-29 y.o.: 69.3%

That's not driving Colorado's increase, tho, at least not according to experts. The truth is, they really don't know why "Colorado is in a surge," as Nolen puts it. 1 in 48 Coloradans.

It's mostly a pandemic of the unvaccinated right now, Nolen says. But they're not the only ones suffering — our health care system is strained, stressed and over-taxed.

Cases predicted to keep rising, Nolen says, and peak in December.

Vaccinations are expected to increase, Nolen says, as employers are requiring them at federal, state and local levels.

The city's vaccine mandate for employees begins Dec. 1, so we'll know after that how many staff are vaccinated... and how many are still staff.

Even tho Boulder County is doing better than other CO counties, if we were a state, we'd still be Top 15 in terms of most cases in the U.S., according to data shared by Nolen. So... it's still bad.

Again, "it's not clear yet why we're seeing this surge," Nolen says. Some possibility is that other states don't do as much testing (so they have as many cases but just don't know it).

Other possible factors:
Cooler weather
Kids back in school
Lower vaccine efficacy among 80+

But, as Nolen points out, those don't really separate us from other places in the U.S. (whereas the high rate of testing does)

Current new cases per 100,000 people: 269.3
Third-highest peak of any time during the pandemic (and still not at its projected peak)

6.7% of tests are currently coming back positive... we want to be at 5% or less

This much spread is outpacing the health system's ability to trace and investigate transmission. (That threshold is about 50 new cases per 100,000, which we passed about 3 months ago)

"We are seeing more people getting tested," Nolen says, "which is a good thing. We want to see people getting tested right now."

About 2,500 tests a day.

RE: our health system, "This is a critical pain point for us," Nolen says.

The epidemiology team is prioritizing who it contacts and traces, based on vulnerability and how much spread they are likely to contribute to.

Hospital capacity is *tight*
As of yesterday, 6 available ICU beds in Boulder County.

The whole state has fewer than 80.

15,000 more hospitalizations and 2,000 more deaths expected by February in Colorado.

Currently 19 pediatric COVID cases in Colorado's 4 children's hospitals.

That's of 1,394 total hospitalizations in the state, so a v low rate. (But still, 92 hospitalized kids)

Boulder County: 92 current COVID hospitalizations, as of yesterday.

RE: Vaccines, Nolen says the county is still working to try and get the 18-29 y.o. vaccinated, since that's the lowest group.

(Other than kids, obvs.) 5% of ages 5-11 have been vaccinated so far, and they were *just* OK'd for that. So a good rate of uptake on that in Boulder County.

Lots of opportunities to get those vaccines (and boosters for parents)

Boulder County not issuing any new orders in response to the recent surge, but they are *still* recommending masking (even outdoors, if you're mixing with folks from dif HH), social distancing and washing your hands.

They're also recommending against indoor gatherings. But again, not an order.

Kate Haywood going over the various vaccine and requirements, and legal challenges to those. JeffCo's mask mandate was upheld, and 3 state's employee vaccine requirements have been upheld in the Supreme Court.

"We're not seeing the type of exodus of employees due to vaccine mandates that was originally feared," Haywood says. "The mandates are largely working."

Haywood: Courts have already rules in some cases that getting fired for not getting vaccinated doesn't entitle someone to unemployment benefits.

Michelle Haas, who works in infectious diseases: We're having great success in vaccinating kids. It's extremely effective in that age group.

"It remains to be seen how much this will impact community transmission."

Weaver: This update "is a bit discouraging, but we'll focus on the good news of more people getting vaccinated."

Yates: The BoCo site seems to indicate that boosters aren't yet available for those under 65 without health conditions. When will they be?

Haas: The state has said that, bc CO is a high-transmission environment, we're all at high risk. Anyone 18+ who is 6 months out is now eligible for a booster shot. It's dif than what the CDC is recommending, but they're (CDC) not worried about CO taking that stance.

"All of us, if you're 6 months out, you're eligible for a booster if you live in Colorado," Haas says.

Yates: How do they get one? Just going to your pharmacy or doctor?
Haas: In theory, yes. In practice it's a little harder to navigate.

Nolen: "You're taken at your word for why you feel you need a booster. If people feel like they're ready, like it would add extra protection, go ahead and take that step."

Joseph: For someone who's healthy, for someone who's young, what is the purpose of getting the booster shot?

Haas: What we're seeing in the U.S. and early data from Israel, it looks like protection starts to go down right around 5-6 months. It's hard to factor in the impact of the Delta variant. It's seen with Pfizer and Moderna.

"The data that we have looks back all the way down to ages 16+," Haas says.

Joseph asks about vax rates among the young, and whether it's CU students.

It's not, Nolen says. "Our university students are over 95% vaccinated."

Joseph asks about masking.
"It's a good idea to wear a mask right now if you're outdoors," Nolen says, "particularly if you're in a large crowd."

Friend and Haywood talking about biz that are "vaccine verified" meaning they don't have to require masks if they're checking ppl's vaccine status.

Not a lot of uptake among restaurants, Haywood says.

So far 241 biz in BoCo have become vaccine verified. It doesn't have to be all the time... you could do like vax-only days or certain hours.

"We'd love to see" that, Haywood says. And we're working with the Chamber to reach certain industries.

Friend: Do we know if the state is considering any stronger requirements?

Camille Rodriguez: "We would have always hoped that *we* didn't have to put in place the public health orders we did. We don't mind taking the lead to protect our most vulnerable...

"... but always we hoped the governor would see".... the need for these orders... "to prevent the hospitals from seeing what they're seeing now."

Rodriguez: We hope we don't have to go back into more strict measures, like lockdowns or limits on gatherings. That's why we did these lesser orders.

But that hasn't worked out.

Says the places in BoCo near other counties with less restrictions have the highest cases, something that's been repeated multiple times tonight. (Areas Weld County, for instance)

Friend: Is it correct that most of the ppl in BoCo hospitals aren't county residents?
Yes, Rodriguez says.
Friend: What %?
Rodriguez: I'll have to get back to you.

Friend: Why aren't 12-17 y.o. eligible for boosters yet? They have equal risk.
Dr. Haas: "It's possible that will change." Israel is offering boosters down to age 12, but their age data is lumped together, so it's tricky to tease out risk-benefit data.

"I think the data are there, and it is safe. That hasn't been presented yet," Haas says.

Swetlik: S/O to the 30-39 y.o. for having the second -highest vax rate. "Way to go to the no-good millennials for helping out."

Weaver: What % of the recent BoCo deaths were unvaccinated?
Nolen: Idk yet. We're looking into that right now so we can strategize.

Wallach: As we're running low on ICU beds, can we create any more? Is that possible?

Dr. Haas: "I don't know the answer to that. All I can say is that, in general, we have talked about ways to redeploy hospital (staff) ... and shift how staff are utilized." But that's for Denver Health — not local hospitals.

Nolen: Colorado is bringing in workers and ventilators from other states that don't need them right now.

That's the end of this long and bleak update.

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