1. It's not just your imagination: the GOP's dangerous, delusional behavior is getting worse. From calling Big Bird a communist to Gosar's assassination video, the party continues its descent into violent, authoritarian extremism. Here's why that's happening—and what it means:
2. Power always has an irresistible magnetism for certain kinds of people. They're power-hungry. But that tendency can be mediated by systems and political cultures. Good systems and cultures attract more decent people. Bad systems/cultures attract and promote more awful people.
3. The GOP has created an atrocious system with an even worse political culture. When people stand up to autocratic behavior (like Liz Cheney), they're punished. When they vote to fund infrastructure, they're condemned. When they promote horrific political violence...crickets.
4. That warped behavior is amplified by two key factors: gerrymandering/uncompetitive districts and party primaries. Most members of Congress come from lopsided districts. They won't lose a general election. But they could get dethroned from power in a competitive primary.
5. That means the treadmill toward authoritarian extremism just grows faster over time. The party goes further, the base becomes radicalized (with the help of Fox News/OAN/Newsmax), the candidate panders to the base to avoid a primary challenger from the right. Rinse, repeat.
6. So, how do you stop the treadmill? The voters won't do it in these districts; they *want* the extremists to be extremists. There are therefore two possible fixes: the GOP leadership starts punishing extremists (yeah, right) or Democrats reform the system to amplify competition
7. This isn't just about Gosar. It's about the Gosars-to-come. As I argue in CORRUPTIBLE, we've designed our systems/political cultures to act like magnets for the Gosars of the world. They're irresistibly drawn to power—and the GOP is welcoming the worst people with open arms.
8. There's no quick fix. But we have to face reality. This isn't about one extremist Congressman. It's about a party that attracts, promotes, and rewards extremists. And until that changes, the treadmill to crazy authoritarian extremism will just keep running, faster and faster.
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1. 1,000+ Americans are killed by cops every year. But when it comes to police reform, our stale debates are misguided: we're focusing solely on what the police *do* and not enough on who the police *are.* Let me explain, with a lesson from New Zealand: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
2. The problem begins with self-selection. Just as tall kids are more likely to try out for a high school basketball team, power-hungry and abusive people will be disproportionately drawn to policing. (Indeed, domestic abuse rates are much higher in US police departments).
3. Now, watch this video that was previously on Doraville, Georgia's police department website. The video is insane. It makes policing look like an occupying army, where testosterone and military weapons in assault vehicles are central to the job.
1. Last night's results offer key lessons regarding the struggle to protect democracy and defeat Republican authoritarianism. It's going to be a frustrating, long road, but we can still win that fight. Here's what I've learned from studying democratic breakdown around the world:
2. There are two major fronts in this political battle. The first is the fight to protect democratic institutions. This is crucial. Right now, Democrats have power. They need to wield it to decisively reform our institutions and protect voting rights. This is an emergency.
3. The second front is the fight to maintain political power. This isn't about protecting institutions, but rather is about keeping a fundamentally authoritarian party (the post-Trump GOP) out of power *until* the party is defeated enough to revert to being broadly pro-democracy.
1. A lot of my academic research has involved travelling to places where political violence has led to the breakdown of democracy and the rise of authoritarianism. And a dynamic I’m not sure is fully appreciated in the US is how small numbers of people can create tipping points.
2. I’ve interviewed coup plotters who organized a few dozen soldiers to take over a government. Some militias that grow into rebel movements start as tiny amateur outfits. But with the right timing, or the right turn of events, democracy can still die at the hands of small groups
3. This matters because the post January 6th dynamic in the US is one in which a small group of diehard extremists *is* planning to destroy democracy in 2022/2024. Some aren’t taking them seriously because a somewhat small percentage of Americans support them. It’s a huge mistake
1. I've devoted much of my career to understanding authoritarianism and the breakdown of democracy. And I'm growing increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for American democracy, because of one simple question: what could slow down the GOP march toward authoritarianism?
2. I've thought a lot about this and I can come up with hundreds of reasons why the increasing authoritarian extremism in the Republican party/base is not just self-sustaining, but likely to accelerate. Let's start with just a few key reasons for this ratcheting extremism here:
3. Primaries: Republicans who try to govern by consensus, compromise, or democratic principles rather than relentlessly kowtowing to autocratic Trumpian dogma now end up with primary challengers. Everyone knows this in the GOP, so even moderates become more extreme over time.
1. There was a crucial moment in the weeks after Jan. 6th, when some elected Republicans mistakenly thought the insurrection would be the party's breaking point with Trumpism. Many said the right things. Then, reality set in. Much of the base supported or condoned Jan. 6th.
2. What happened next shows how the creeping authoritarianism of Trumpism grew like a weed over the last 4+ years, and has now completely ensnared the entire party. Only a few - Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, etc - decided it was worth risking their seat to protect our democracy.
3. This dynamic is crucial to understanding modern GOP politics, because Trump is gone but his authoritarianism now defines the party he took over. In fact, there's a dangerous ratcheting effect that is making the party increasingly extreme - and will likely get worse over time.
1. I’ve spent a lot of time in authoritarian countries, interviewing dissidents, opposition leaders, torture victims, journalists who were beaten. And it’s infuriating that people like Tucker Carlson are cosplaying like apparatchiks for autocrats before jetting back to the US.
2. People on the Trumpian right who claim to idolize autocrats from Orban to Putin wouldn’t last even a few weeks in those regimes. Heck, they can’t even handle the “oppression” of a cloth mask for 20 minutes a day. Try living under genuinely inescapable oppression.
3. But they know they won’t have to. Instead, people like Carlson can put Orban up on a pedestal and then just fly back to their glitzy life in the US. Hungarians don’t have that option. And they don’t have a democracy any longer either because of Orban.