1. Last night's results offer key lessons regarding the struggle to protect democracy and defeat Republican authoritarianism. It's going to be a frustrating, long road, but we can still win that fight. Here's what I've learned from studying democratic breakdown around the world:
2. There are two major fronts in this political battle. The first is the fight to protect democratic institutions. This is crucial. Right now, Democrats have power. They need to wield it to decisively reform our institutions and protect voting rights. This is an emergency.
3. The second front is the fight to maintain political power. This isn't about protecting institutions, but rather is about keeping a fundamentally authoritarian party (the post-Trump GOP) out of power *until* the party is defeated enough to revert to being broadly pro-democracy.
4. You can't do one or the other. You have to do both. If you protect institutions, but lose national power to an authoritarian party, democracy is doomed. If you maintain power but don't reform the system, the victories can be short-lived; the authoritarian threat will remain.
5. That's why Democrats must see the bigger picture. The window to save American democracy is, in my view, closing. But if Democrats pass big, bold popular legislation and protect voting rights while reforming dysfunctional aspects of our democracy/elections, it can be saved.
6. The problem with democratic breakdown/creeping authoritarianism, is that it often is neglected as a serious, realistic risk...until it's too late. Countries that let democracy die very rarely rebuild it. If they do, it takes decades. Protecting democracy is much, much easier.
7. But as someone who studies this stuff, I'm more worried about US democracy now than I have ever been. The post-Trump GOP adopted Trump's authoritarianism, but is pushing it with far more strategic effectiveness. And authoritarian lies are now a clear litmus test in the GOP.
8. Yes, this is depressing. But as someone who has seen firsthand what happens when democracies die all over the world - with tragic effects - the ongoing struggle to protect and preserve US democracy is worth it. Now, Democrats: get to work. Treat this like the emergency it is.
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1. 1,000+ Americans are killed by cops every year. But when it comes to police reform, our stale debates are misguided: we're focusing solely on what the police *do* and not enough on who the police *are.* Let me explain, with a lesson from New Zealand: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
2. The problem begins with self-selection. Just as tall kids are more likely to try out for a high school basketball team, power-hungry and abusive people will be disproportionately drawn to policing. (Indeed, domestic abuse rates are much higher in US police departments).
3. Now, watch this video that was previously on Doraville, Georgia's police department website. The video is insane. It makes policing look like an occupying army, where testosterone and military weapons in assault vehicles are central to the job.
1. A lot of my academic research has involved travelling to places where political violence has led to the breakdown of democracy and the rise of authoritarianism. And a dynamic I’m not sure is fully appreciated in the US is how small numbers of people can create tipping points.
2. I’ve interviewed coup plotters who organized a few dozen soldiers to take over a government. Some militias that grow into rebel movements start as tiny amateur outfits. But with the right timing, or the right turn of events, democracy can still die at the hands of small groups
3. This matters because the post January 6th dynamic in the US is one in which a small group of diehard extremists *is* planning to destroy democracy in 2022/2024. Some aren’t taking them seriously because a somewhat small percentage of Americans support them. It’s a huge mistake
1. I've devoted much of my career to understanding authoritarianism and the breakdown of democracy. And I'm growing increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for American democracy, because of one simple question: what could slow down the GOP march toward authoritarianism?
2. I've thought a lot about this and I can come up with hundreds of reasons why the increasing authoritarian extremism in the Republican party/base is not just self-sustaining, but likely to accelerate. Let's start with just a few key reasons for this ratcheting extremism here:
3. Primaries: Republicans who try to govern by consensus, compromise, or democratic principles rather than relentlessly kowtowing to autocratic Trumpian dogma now end up with primary challengers. Everyone knows this in the GOP, so even moderates become more extreme over time.
1. There was a crucial moment in the weeks after Jan. 6th, when some elected Republicans mistakenly thought the insurrection would be the party's breaking point with Trumpism. Many said the right things. Then, reality set in. Much of the base supported or condoned Jan. 6th.
2. What happened next shows how the creeping authoritarianism of Trumpism grew like a weed over the last 4+ years, and has now completely ensnared the entire party. Only a few - Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, etc - decided it was worth risking their seat to protect our democracy.
3. This dynamic is crucial to understanding modern GOP politics, because Trump is gone but his authoritarianism now defines the party he took over. In fact, there's a dangerous ratcheting effect that is making the party increasingly extreme - and will likely get worse over time.
1. I’ve spent a lot of time in authoritarian countries, interviewing dissidents, opposition leaders, torture victims, journalists who were beaten. And it’s infuriating that people like Tucker Carlson are cosplaying like apparatchiks for autocrats before jetting back to the US.
2. People on the Trumpian right who claim to idolize autocrats from Orban to Putin wouldn’t last even a few weeks in those regimes. Heck, they can’t even handle the “oppression” of a cloth mask for 20 minutes a day. Try living under genuinely inescapable oppression.
3. But they know they won’t have to. Instead, people like Carlson can put Orban up on a pedestal and then just fly back to their glitzy life in the US. Hungarians don’t have that option. And they don’t have a democracy any longer either because of Orban.
1. Alexander Lukashenko, the dictator of Belarus, appears to be taking yet another page from Putin’s playbook. He seems to be systematically hunting down and assassinating dissidents. Grounded airplanes, an Olympian nearly kidnapped, now a murder of a dissident in Ukraine.
2. When I interviewed presidential candidates and opposition figures in Minsk, the KGB followed me everywhere. It’s a police state, with the KGB headquarters dominating the Minsk cityscape, a constant reminder that you’re being watched.
3. But Lukashenko is getting bolder. He’s long tried to have it both ways, flirting with the West for concessions while not straying too far from Putin, but it’s now clear that the West’s approach has failed and he’s decided to simply hunt people down, no matter the costs.