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11 Nov, 7 tweets, 5 min read
11/11 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Declines are slowing/flattening
* Winter wave watch continues
* Panhandle appears to be very flat to slowing rising
* El Paso rise is slowing somewhat
* Southern half of state continues steep decline

1/n
 .
11/11 Testing

* Remember, tests are filed by date of specimen collection
* Anything < 7-8 days old is incomplete
* Pos% continues decline, 4.39% as of 11/1
* Testing declines to @ 574K per week as of 11/1
* Positive Test 7DMA below 3600 per day
* Covidestim Rt - 0.58

2/n ImageImageImageImage
11/11 - Cases

* Cases have flattened out in the past few days
* Looking at the more recent, incomplete testing numbers per 2/n, not seeing same yet
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* 7DMA of 2384 cases, declining 5% week over week
* Will watch

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
11/11 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Covid Admits 7DMA flat. 317 per day 7DMA
* % of beds tagged as Covid down to 4.21%, with a total Covid census of 2717 beds
* 7DMA WoW rate of decline slowing to 16.2%
* See link below for looks at ELP, AMA, LBB

4/n
 .
covid-texas.csullender.com/?tsa=I ImageImageImageImage
11/11 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* ICU portion of the bed census is down to 955
* Comments in 11/8 update suggested looking at New Mexico. NMs winter waves definitely start before TX both years
* Could explain ELP and Panhandle
* NM is in a rise now. TX next? Well see

5/n
 . ImageImageImage
11/11 Conclusion

* Definite flattening this week in Cases and Hosp Admits
* Positive Tests and Hospital census still in decline
* New Mexico in a wave, may be affecting areas near NM border.
* Will be interested to see what next 3-4 days look like

6/n
@pcfudge @iKick247

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
13 Nov
The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals not only Stayed OSHA's mandate, they destroyed it, and laid down the legal groundwork for it to be easily struck down.

Might take a couple of days, but I'll go through the ruling page by page.

THREAD

1/n
dl.airtable.com/.attachments/d…
The ruling by Judge Engelhardt begins by going through the rarity and difficulty of OSHA using the Emergency Temporary Standard that they are utilizing for this Mandate. In 50 years of history, 10 ETSs have been issued, and only 1 survived.

2/n
 . Image
To grant a Stay, a court considers 4 factors. In this case, each of these factors favor a stay. The next several pages will delve into the four factors, starting with whether the challenge to the Mandate is likely to succeed.

3/n Image
Read 5 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
8 Nov
11/8 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* No stopping the declines except;
* El Paso showing a bump. Is it leading the way for a winter wave for the 2nd straight year?

1/n
 .
11/8 Indicators

* Total positivity rate continues decline, 4.60% as of 10/29, as a large batch of negative tests hit yesterday
* Testing peaked 9/13 @ 1.12M tests/week. As of 10/29, down to @ 587K per week
* Positive Test 7DMA below 3900 per day
* Covidestim Rt - 0.56

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
11/8 - Cases

* As positive tests continue to decline, so do cases
* 7DMA of 2335 cases, declining 16% week over week.
* A very small rise from this very low number over the weekend, we will watch to see if that continues.

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
5 Nov
11/4 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Declines continue across the board - testing, positives, cases, hospital admits, hospital usage and ICU
* Watching for the start of a winter wave.

1/n
 .
11/1 Indicators

* Total positivity rate continues slow decline, as of 10/25 at 5.22%, should continue
* Testing peaked 9/13 @ 1.12M tests/week. As of 10/25, down to @ 567K per week, decline of nearly 50%
* Positive Test 7DMA below 4300 per day
* Covidestim Rt - 0.61

2/n
 .
11/4 - Cases

* As positive tests continue to decline, so do cases
* 7DMA of 2509 cases, declining 17% week over week
* Cases lower than any point in the comparable 2020 wave, despite double the testing
* Cases had flattened in 2020 & were about to rise. Not so right now

3/n
 .
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
1 Nov
11/1 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

* Positives, Cases & Hospitalization all continue strong declines for now
* Discussion on testing, positive tests, & Positivity Rate
* Winter wave time yet or what?

1/n
 .
11/1 Indicators - Part 1

* Total positivity rate as of 10/22 at 5.41%, but the rate of decline is flattening some
* Testing peak 9/13 @ 1.12M tests a week. Testing as of 10/22 is @ 580K per week, a decline of nearly 50%
* Positive Test 7DMA below 4500 per day

2/n
 . ImageImage
11/1 Indicators - Part 2

When looking at Testing, Pos Rate & Cases:

* TX reports testing by date of specimen collection, Counties report cases in batch
* Takes good 9-10 days for a day's testing to arrive to state
* Pos rate needs to be looked at in relation to qty of testing ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
29 Oct
10/29 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

* Decline
* 10/19 Pos% = 5.57%
* Cases 7DMA < 3000
* Total Beds tagged C19 at 5.57%, census at 3646, down 74% from 8/25
* Total Fatalities attributed to C19 in Texas about to hit 70K, get ready for the headlines

1/n
 .
10/29 Indicators

* Total positivity % as of 10/19 at 5.57%
* Testing peak 9/13 @ 1.12M tests a week. Testing as of 10/19 is @ 618K per week
* Positive Tests 7DMA below 5K/day. Meaning cases were in decline as of 10/19
* Covidestim Rt down to new low of 0.52

2/n
 .
10/29 Cases

* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 10/29 7DMA is 2,980 down 81% from 9/14
* 7DMA rate of decline 10% Week over week

3/n
 .
Read 7 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
26 Oct
10/26 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

* Declines continue but floor approaching
* Combined Pos% is 5.85% as of 10/16
* Cases 7DMA of 3062
* Total Beds tagged C19 down to 6.43%, census at 4077, down 71% from 8/25

1/n
 .
10/26 Indicators

* Total positivity % as of 10/16 at 5.85%
* Testing peak 9/13 @ 1.12M tests a week. Testing as of 10/16 is @ 652K per week
* Positive Tests 7DMA below 5400/day. Meaning cases were in decline as of 10/16
* Covidestim Rt down to historic low of 0.56

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
10/26 Cases

* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 10/26 7DMA is 3,062 down 80% from 9/14
* 7DMA rate of decline still steep at 24% Week over week

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets

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