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5 Nov, 6 tweets, 4 min read
11/4 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Declines continue across the board - testing, positives, cases, hospital admits, hospital usage and ICU
* Watching for the start of a winter wave.

1/n
 .
11/1 Indicators

* Total positivity rate continues slow decline, as of 10/25 at 5.22%, should continue
* Testing peaked 9/13 @ 1.12M tests/week. As of 10/25, down to @ 567K per week, decline of nearly 50%
* Positive Test 7DMA below 4300 per day
* Covidestim Rt - 0.61

2/n
 .
11/4 - Cases

* As positive tests continue to decline, so do cases
* 7DMA of 2509 cases, declining 17% week over week
* Cases lower than any point in the comparable 2020 wave, despite double the testing
* Cases had flattened in 2020 & were about to rise. Not so right now

3/n
 .
11/4 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Covid Admits 7DMA down to 354
* % of beds tagged as Covid below 5% at 4.83%, with a total Covid census of 3100 beds
* 2021 numbers about to decline below 2020 comparable wave numbers
* However, 7DMA WoW rate of decline is still 18%

4/n
 .
11/4 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* ICU portion of the bed census is down to 1108
* 2021 numbers meet 2020 comparable wave numbers, but there isn't any end in sight to the decline yet

5/n
 .
11/4 Conclusion

* The 2020 Winter wave started approx 130 days after the start of the 2020 Summer wave
* We currently at ~130 days but the declines are still steep
* Expectation is a Winter wave is on the horizon but the data doesn't indicate that yet. Will keep watching

6/n

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
1 Nov
11/1 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

* Positives, Cases & Hospitalization all continue strong declines for now
* Discussion on testing, positive tests, & Positivity Rate
* Winter wave time yet or what?

1/n
 .
11/1 Indicators - Part 1

* Total positivity rate as of 10/22 at 5.41%, but the rate of decline is flattening some
* Testing peak 9/13 @ 1.12M tests a week. Testing as of 10/22 is @ 580K per week, a decline of nearly 50%
* Positive Test 7DMA below 4500 per day

2/n
 . ImageImage
11/1 Indicators - Part 2

When looking at Testing, Pos Rate & Cases:

* TX reports testing by date of specimen collection, Counties report cases in batch
* Takes good 9-10 days for a day's testing to arrive to state
* Pos rate needs to be looked at in relation to qty of testing ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
29 Oct
10/29 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

* Decline
* 10/19 Pos% = 5.57%
* Cases 7DMA < 3000
* Total Beds tagged C19 at 5.57%, census at 3646, down 74% from 8/25
* Total Fatalities attributed to C19 in Texas about to hit 70K, get ready for the headlines

1/n
 .
10/29 Indicators

* Total positivity % as of 10/19 at 5.57%
* Testing peak 9/13 @ 1.12M tests a week. Testing as of 10/19 is @ 618K per week
* Positive Tests 7DMA below 5K/day. Meaning cases were in decline as of 10/19
* Covidestim Rt down to new low of 0.52

2/n
 .
10/29 Cases

* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 10/29 7DMA is 2,980 down 81% from 9/14
* 7DMA rate of decline 10% Week over week

3/n
 .
Read 7 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
26 Oct
10/26 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

* Declines continue but floor approaching
* Combined Pos% is 5.85% as of 10/16
* Cases 7DMA of 3062
* Total Beds tagged C19 down to 6.43%, census at 4077, down 71% from 8/25

1/n
 .
10/26 Indicators

* Total positivity % as of 10/16 at 5.85%
* Testing peak 9/13 @ 1.12M tests a week. Testing as of 10/16 is @ 652K per week
* Positive Tests 7DMA below 5400/day. Meaning cases were in decline as of 10/16
* Covidestim Rt down to historic low of 0.56

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
10/26 Cases

* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 10/26 7DMA is 3,062 down 80% from 9/14
* 7DMA rate of decline still steep at 24% Week over week

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
22 Oct
10/22 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

* Bye Bye Bye
* Combined Pos% is 6.39% as of 10/12
* Cases 7DMA below 3300
* Total Beds tagged C19 down to 6.92%, census below 4600, down 67% from 8/25
* This wave least fatal of the 3 C19 waves

1/n
 .
10/22 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 10/12 at 6.39%
* Testing peak 9/13 @ 1.12 million tests a week. Testing as of 10/12 is @ 679K per week
* Positive Tests 7DMA nearing 6200 per day. Meaning cases will continue to decline
* Covidestim Rt declines to 0.87

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
10/22 Cases

* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 10/19 7DMA is 4,153 down 74% from 9/14
* 7DMA rate of decline at 27% Week over week

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
20 Oct
10/19 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

* Continued declines
* Combined Pos% is 6.87% as of 10/9
* Cases 7DMA nearing 4000
* Total Beds tagged C19 down to 7.81%, census below 5000, down 64% from 8/25
* This wave least fatal of the 3 C19 waves

1/n
 .
10/19 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 10/9 at 6.87%
* Testing peak 9/13 @ 1.12 million tests a week. Testing as of 10/9 is @ 713K per week
* Positive Tests 7DMA nearing 7K per day
* Covidestim Rt jumps to 0.91 but mostly based on odd testing/fatality graph

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
10/19 Cases

* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 10/19 7DMA is 4,055, down 73% from 9/14
* 7DMA rate of decline at 24% Week over week

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
13 Oct
10/13 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

* Continued declines
* Combined Pos% below 8% as of 10/3
* Cases 7DMA below 4900
* Total Beds tagged C19 down to 9.53%, census below 6100, down 56% from 8/25
* Fatalities analysis between the 3 Covid waves

1/n
 .
10/13 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 10/3 at 7.92%
* Testing peak 9/13 @ 1.12 million tests a week. Testing as of 10/3 is @ 757K per week
* Positive Tests descending through 7DMA of 8.6K per day
* Covidestim Rt at 0.57. New low

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
10/13 Cases

* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 10/13 7DMA is 4,887, down 68% from 9/14
* 7DMA rate of decline at 23% Week over week

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets

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