#Lauruslabs

There’s lot of confusion and concers around whats happening in Laurus and I thought of putting my view

There are two main concerns
1.RM costs – this is universal to all pharma companies, but eventually will get sorted
2.ARV sales – this seems the bigger concern.
Because of regimen change (Efavirenz to Dolutegravir) and 30-day to 90-day pack, governments are in process of clearing the inventory which caused sales to go down. This may continue for a quarter more, but Q4 looks good..

Some might feel, funding may divert to Covid.
Global funds are for 5 years, it is a must medicine, so I don’t think, funding can divert or stop

Some are drawing conclusions from Q2 Aurobindo ARV sales. Pls understand LL is last man standing being lowest cost producer. Even if the market shrinks, other players may opt out,
but Laurus will continue its sales.
positives
-Two Covid drugs in advanced stage – Molnupiravir (Merck) and Paxlovid (Pfizer). Paxlovid must be combined with ritonavir to keep the drug active in the body for longer duration. Laurus can produce both Molnupiravir and Ritonavir and
will be benefited with the launch

-Majority of 1700 crs capex will commercialize by Mar-22 which is into non-ARV and generate 2500 crs. This capex is already tied up for clients, so capacity utilization will happen from Q1 itself

I remain bullish. Can’t take a qtr view but
the price is too good if one can hold for longer period

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with jeevan patwa

jeevan patwa Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jeevanpatwa

6 Oct
There is no easy money in stock market

It’s really worrisome to know that many people are coming in the stock market for short term trading after this bull market rally. Came across many young minds who are ignoring their core competency and focusing on trading.
Don’t extrapolate post-corona market returns. This was aberration, abnormal, unusual. Its impossible to earn similar returns every year.

Focus on your core competency and career. Trading will ruin both your career and wealth

Music doesn’t last long. Invest in building your
core competencies like programming skills or engineering skills. That will only help you in long run

I am very bullish on India but trading is not the way to play the India growth story. Only Investing can create serious wealth in long run.
Read 8 tweets
4 Sep
#Ajmerarealty - project execution, faster land monetization and profit visibility can re-rate stock

MMR remains the best market for RE in India because of good demand, realisations and limited supply.

Ajmera realty has got 20 Mn sq ft development potential similar to Oberoi
This is fully owned and completely paid for as against Oberoi where part of it is under JDA and DM model.

Both are MMR focused players.

Oberoi generated 1650 cr projects revenue, 322 cr rentals in FY21. Ajmera will have similar P&L after 5 years with almost 1500 cr project
revenue and 300 cr rentals

MCap of Oberoi is 27500 cr wheras Ajmera is only 1250 crs.

Ajmera has 3 Mn sq ft resi and 3 Mn sq ft commercial in Wadala and 12.5 Mn sq ft in Kanjur marg. It is readying project pipeline to monetize current land bank and looking for more JDA and DM
Read 4 tweets
8 Jul
#IBullreal – top pick in the sector. Brand, Balance sheet, execution and access to low cost funds will drive value for the combined entity

Post merger, #Embassy will own 45% and Blackstone 10%. This will create institutional platform for investment in real estate sector and
combined entity will be one of the largest real estate companies in India.

In terms of valuation, 18000 cr net surplus, 2000 acres of land valued around 8-10 crs per acre, 1400 crs SEZ land, 42 Mn sq ft commercial space (potential of generating 4200 crs rentals) available at EV
of # 15000 crs. More importantly, with Embassy+Blackstone brand, execution capability and access to institutional money will re-rate the stock to earnings based multiple rather than asset based valuation.

Concerns –
-If Merger doesn’t happen – Currently only NCLT approval is
Read 6 tweets
7 Jul
#RealEstate – story of structural reforms. Brand, Balance sheet, Execution and access to low cost funds will drive the value

Last 8-10 years, real estate sector faced multiple challenges with huge inventory build-up, demand slow down, liquidity crunch, drying source of funds..
Sector has given very lackluster performance for these years, but dynamics are now changing with reforms done by the government like GST and RERA. Demonetisation was actually negative for the sector in the short run but for long term, it proved to be a boon.
These structural reforms cleanup the sector with 70% competition gone, market share shifted from unorganized to organized players.

Brand, Balance sheet, Execution and access to low cost funds will drive the value in the sector henceforth.

Customer preference has shifted from
Read 6 tweets
12 Feb
#Suvenpharma

My analysis after Concall
-ANDAs contribution to PAT was zero in FY20. It will be biggest growth driver for company with 5 already launched and 6-7 getting launched next year. Company working on one 505 b(2) opportunity which can materialize after Mar 22..
this can be large opportunity..Overall I estimate ANDAs to contribute 200-250 crs PAT in next 3 years..
-Rising pharma contribution was 46 crs in FY20. With company out of bankruptcy and 100+ ANDAs pipeline, PAT contribution will keep rising..
-CDMO pharma will have growth drivers in the form of 1-2 commercial molecules in next 18-24 months and moving from intermediates to API and formulation. Management said they are talking to 2 large customers on these lines
-CDMO non pharma has 2 molecules currently, 2 more will
Read 4 tweets
11 Feb
#MSTC results - right way to look at these numbers is to add back provisions to PAT and then compare. If add provisions to PBT and then take tax rate as 33%, your number will match with the reported tax.

Provisions relates to cash and carry business which has been stopped
a year back. There was around 120 crs of provisions related to that. I wish it should write off everything once for all so that it can start next year on a clean slate..

Only negative according to me is no Q-o-Q growth in e-comm revenue which I was expecting due to higher
realisations during the qtr.

Its your call to hold or sell..this is the story of future... If you want to play on scrappage policy then #MSTC is biggest beneficiary...provision write off was due and may happen in Q4 again but I hope from next year...things will look different
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(