Belarus crisis: 1/ British troops at the Poland-Belarus border... why? First, because that's what NATO's "enhanced forward presence" is designed for: to make any attack on Poland/Baltic states an attack on all... or as the IR put it, a "trip wire"...
2/ The more worrying context is the Pentagon briefing to the EU that Russia may be about to attack Ukraine... think about the logic...
3/ You threaten Poland, which is protected by Art V of NATO, and lots of NATO countries/electorates go "WTF" and don't immediately react; you simultaneously threaten Ukraine, which has no guarantee...
4/ NATO's non-response or lack of unity over Poland demonstrates to Ukraine the futility of its position and you "win without fighting"... I dunno if that's what is going on - but it's logical to assume so...
5/ Belarus inhuman treatment of the refugees is a clear breach of international law, and close to an act of aggression vs Poland/EU... and entirely now backed by Russia. And the EU's wire fence border is also a breach of international humanitarian law...
6/ So the first thing the global labour movement has to do, especially in Europe, is to call for de-escalation, compassion to refugees, negotiation, compromise... Putin knows there is little appetite for East-West confrontation in Europe...
7/ But those of us who've been warning about Putin/Lukashenko/Assad hybrid warfare against our democracies for years - this is what we've been trying to tell ppl: these are desparate oligarchs, running regimes of crisis: this is not Brezhnev vs Reagan...
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
