Option traders find a strategy & backtest it for 10+ years to see how it performed through various combinations of entry, exits, SLs.

One has to understand that market regimes keep changing after 3-4 years.

What worked in 2017 doesn't work with same effectiveness in 2021.

1/
Looking back i was a completely different trader in 2008 to 2015 to now. Ofcourse one keeps improving his skills but it also happens because markets keep evolving.

Whatever strategy works for a particular time period loses it's edge as more people start pouring into it.

2/
Therefore one needs to keep reinventing himself each time a regime changes. You could do very well in one period but fail miserably in another, thus not being able to sustain in the longrun.

This is primarily because one lacks understanding of basic structures of a strategy.

3/
You can find that one fit to all strategy through rigorous backtesting, but soon you'll start pointing out your lack of discipline or other issues which is not allowing you to stay profitable.

The problem lies in your lack of adaptability because of lack of knowledge.

4/
For option traders market volatility keeps changing. The intensity of delta moves, IV spikes, SL hunting candles are all governed by how the masses have deployed their strategies.

One needs to improve his awareness & stay mindful of repetitive unusual happenings.

5/
One can't immediately change his trading because he has seen some success in the past perhaps (usually it's just backtest results), but if your trading is only getting tougher day by day with random results, most likely it's going to stay like that.

The regime has changed.

6/

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More from @SarangSood

30 Oct
Nifty or Banknifty for option selling? 🧵

There are times when i have traded exclusively in bnf for atleast a couple of yrs, when the weeklies got introduced.

Stopped trading in it for an yr when nf weekly got introduced & bnf started having price freeze issues on expiry days.
Idea has always been to master just one index.

Before the introduction of bnf weeklies, there was no other choice than nf monthly options. Bnf monthly didn't have good liquidity as compared to nf at that time.

Even next month nf options had better liquidity than bnf options.
But now the liquidity is not an issue in any of the index. Option prices don't freeze in bnf anymore.

Currently I'm flexible enough to trade in both, many a times switching from one to another in intraday itself.

Have also tried cross hedging them, but the results were varied.
Read 7 tweets
7 Aug
SURVIVORSHIP BIAS

Survivorship bias is the tendency to analyze the strategies that performed exceptionally well and ignore all those that didn’t reach our criteria. We have an inclination towards focusing on the survivors, even if they survived out of luck rather than viability.
So basically we are testing our ideas on an incomplete data. The missing data may conceal losing trades or winning trades, causing us to deploy a strategy which we shouldn't or vice versa. Backtest results with this bias will not represent the true picture.
So if we have a backtested strategy with SL on a 5 min time frame (or even 1 min for that matter), it may give a totally different outlook to the actual result. The period in between which is not taken into account can give vicious price movement hitting the SL multiple times.
Read 10 tweets
17 Jul
FIRST ACCOUNT OF OPTIONS

We have this perception that Options are relatively new trading instruments, but they actually go back to the times before Christ was born. Getting to know the origins of this fascinating trading instrument can help us appreciate the depth of it.

1/
The very first account of options was mentioned in Aristotle's book named "Politics", published in 332 B.C. That's how far back humans have used the concept of buying the rights to an asset without necessarily buying the asset itself.

2/
Aristotle mentioned a man named Thales of Miletus who was a great astronomer, philosopher and mathematician. Thales was one of the seven sages of ancient greece. By observing the stars and weather patterns, he predicted a huge olive harvest in the year that follows.

3/
Read 10 tweets
18 Jun
A THREAD

Topic: HOW TO TRADE IN RISING PREMIUMS SCENARIO

Option sellers specially Straddle sellers feel that rising premiums give them excellent opportunity to make easy money. So what they are seeing is the theta aspect of options & ignoring the delta/gamma/vega forces.

1/
With rising premiums come high delta moves. There is a reason why premiums are all increasing up in the first place. High uncertainty & fear is what's controlling the markets during such times. So a volatile 200 point move in nifty is always on the cards.

2/
Adjusting during such delta moves involves high slippages. Such costs go in our system & are irrecoverable. So if the ATM straddle is around 400 & after 200 point downmove, the next straddle is at 450 & the loss is not just 50points but compounded much more.

3/
Read 16 tweets
4 Jun
Understanding HIGH & LOW VIX

VIX at 16: If you check today's IV behaviour, they were not spiking much even with decent delta move in BNF. The movement was subtle, giving some time to adjust. So someone having good adjustment mechanism can stay in the game longer.

1/
VIX at 20: The same delta move will be more fierce, coupled with rise in premiums. When premiums rise with movement, then the adjustment cost increases exponentially. The premiums can fall back at EOD, but the damage is done if caught in the spike.

2/
After talking to few traders, their backtest result was in favor of high VIX of 2020, rather than 2017-19. The key flaw in the backtest were the adjustments which are not easy to calculate. Combination of high theta & fixed SL during high VIX, the IV crush is cashed at EOD.

3/
Read 7 tweets
29 May
CHRONOLOGY OF SUCCESSFUL TRADING

• Learn basics of trading but no breakthrough for many months
• Find a good strategy or trading idea
• Implement that idea with some capital
• Start adding more capital because of good returns
• Start making decent returns for few months

1/
• Lose all previous month returns in a week
• Hault trading for some days
• Go back to the drawing board & improve the strategy
• Start again with 2nd step
• Repeat for n number of cycles (n depends solely on a trader's skill & huslte)
• Create a decent trading career.

2/
With experience the trader will start retaining the profits, and stop giving it all away during drawdowns. A stage comes when drawdowns are minimal & only trading opportunities are cashed in. This is because the trader finds an optimum balance between risk & good returns.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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