1) This will be many times larger than asbestos in $$. It will wreck various companies. Worth watching what your companies are doing and asking hard questions about your positions.
2) I remember when asbestos lawsuits went mainstream in early 2000s. Guys would tell me the numbers were crazy/they couldn’t prove where someone got sick/asbestos was everywhere/ no one knew it was bad/etc. In the end, it bankrupted many businesses and led to billions in losses
3) The size of the lawsuits was bigger than anyone thought, trial lawyers can bring a few sick guys on stand and get a jury go agree to anything. Corporates always settle and move on. It’s not their money anyway. Politicians will do their thing and make it a circus.
4) Once the first lawsuit wins, buying deep OTM puts on these will be free money. I remember sitting at my fraternity house, working with the guys, trying to guess who would get sued next. I had some $SEE OTM puts. Think they were 100x. 25x in $GE. Was so easy. We banked huge $$
5) Doesn’t even matter what you think of vaccine efficacy. Red states will have a field day on this. The cases will be tried in Red courts with Red juries. If someone got fired on unconstitutional grounds, the lawsuits will never end. Civil rights and employment rights are big.
7) Wait til they can prove that people were made sick by forced vaccinations. The numbers will be massive!!
8) The time to prune your portfolio is now. I remember the fukwits on CNBC telling me that the multi-billion asbestos lawsuits would get settled for pocket change. Those funds all got plowed by the trial lawyers. The victims got pennies on the dollar, lawyers banked,stocks nuked
9) I don’t care what you think about vaccines. Not trying to debate anyone. I simply think this is the inevitable course of action. Make sure you’ve cleaned out your book before the lawsuits start…
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Even with the supply chain fuct, no one wants to eat $BYND…
Seriously, this turd-co has $1.1b of debt, -$191m of OCF and a $5b MC. It stopped growing and at scale has a 21% Gross Margin turning pea powder into “meat” that sells for $5/lb. There are so many contradictions here, that my head hurts. How is this company still a “thing”..??
Why are they blasting out cap-ex if growth stopped?? How did they spend $45m on R&D in 9 mos? It’s a fuckin burger patty!!
1) Back in March of 2020, JPOW gave you a free shot on goal. If you scored, good for you. If you missed, that’s your fault. The past 18 mos have been one of the easiest market periods ever. They literally gave away huge $$$. It was too easy. I maxed out and positively banked it…
2) The market has changed. JPOW is no longer on your side. The politicians are against you. The flows are against you. It will get a lot harder. You need to be more selective.
3) I’m the “Project Zimbabwe” guy. Nothing has changed in my mind, but that doesn’t mean all assets power forward from here. There will be losers, terrifying volatility and lots of casualties along the way…
1) Markets are hard to predict. Anyone who tells you otherwise, hasn’t been around the markets long enough. Here’s the most recent head scratcher from my book; why have housing-related equities sold off in the past few weeks..???
2) A few months ago, we all “knew” the bear thesis. I even posted on it at the peak of the mortgage rates spike and said I wasn’t too concerned. adventuresincapitalism.com/2021/03/22/who…
3) What has happened since then?? 30-yr Mortgage Rate has pulled back 35bps. Lumber is down by 2/3. Labor is slowly getting better in some states. Affordability is better.
1) So fed talks tough. Bullard makes the rounds. Curve flattens and a bunch of “late to party” hedge funds puke their “inflation trades”—they never believed in the trade anyway...
2) You think oil gives 2 fuks about curve steepeners blowing up some asshole in Greenwich?? Nope!! Look at it. Oil is key to inflation. Not gold, not #Bitcoin, not copper or anything else. Watch oil. It’s the first to call their bluff. Think wages are backing off?
3) They’ll talk a big game, maybe give us 50bps in ‘23. Who cares?? You think they kept rates at zero in Zimbabwe?? This is a fiscal show now anyway. Fed is trapped and this is all a pretend...
1) This $GME trade has been obvious and I’ve been all over it for weeks. Barring something unexpected, we have an insanity squeeze tomorrow. Fun stuff!! I have no right-tail exposure as I already banked massive gains. That was the appetizer...
2) If I’m right about the insanity squeeze, all the funds who are short $GME and similar stuff, blow up and have to puke their longs. Remember, 120/80 has been a massive inflow machine. Now these levered funds are on the ropes. It’s a “quant quake.”It will be sudden and violent..
3) The higher $GME goes, the more it will pressure the quants. However, when all the equity is chewed through, someone has to defuse these neutron bombs. I suspect there’s a price on $GME where the prime brokers will step in...