Dear Team COP27, A few suggestions from someone who sincerely cares about reducing energy poverty, ideally with zero CO2.
Warning: Another attempt at Parody. Save the hate for a future tweet about newfound E&P capital discipline.
2/ No brainer Suggestion #1: Ban all delegates from using private planes (ex world leaders). Come on, this one is a piece of cake. Normally, I poke fun at virtue signaling. But we are all progressives on this point. I hear Lufthansa now offers “green” seats!
3/ Suggestion #2: Hold a future COP in a truly developing area. How about the “developing” area just outside Mumbai airport? While we are saving the poor from the ills of future climate extremes, can we not get their opinions on what they want and think?
4/ Suggestion #3: Instead of staying in fancy hotels or Air BnBs, all delegates will get a free tent to “camp” in the area outside of Mumbai airport. With all the money saved on lodging, dinners and wine tastings, $$$ could be donated to help locals eat and attend school.
5/ Suggestion #4: Ask the locals what they prefer: A car + modern electricity or promises that you will do everything in your power to limit “dirty” energy supply before “clean tech” is ready for prime time, while ignoring the tough consumer demand choices in your own country.
6/ Suggestion #5: Ask the locals if air pollution in their country that only uses limited amounts of fossil fuels is better or worse than the air quality in high fossil fuel use countries. Why is that?
7/ Suggestion #6: Ask the locals if they would like energy poverty reduction to join the call for “justice”. What is “just” about billions of people being forced to live a sub-modern lifestyle?
8/ Suggestion #7: Ask the locals if they understand why rich countries are moving to intermittent forms of electricity without also ensuring adequate zero-carbon base-load energy, which almost certainly has to come from nuclear?
9/ Suggestion #8: Ask the locals if they are OK depending on Middle East and Russia oil supply since there is pressure on US/Canadian governments to reduce their own oil and gas supply?
10 END/ Suggestion #9: Ask the locals if they would like gasoline/diesel/LPG subsidies to be eliminated, consistent with a 1.5C warming objective.
PS/ In all seriousness, it is my humble, likely ill-informed, probably incorrect, and deeply conflicted opinion that we will never solve CO2 without first, or at least simultaneously, eliminating energy poverty. There are many billions of people that deserve modern energy.
PS2/ I am not a political person. I hate US cable news...all channels. I am a Wall Street analyst that has studied energy markets for 30 years. I am neither anti-environmentalist nor pro-fossil fuels per se. I do care about elevating the issue of energy poverty reduction.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1 of 16/ Wouldn’t it be simpler for President Biden to just tell the truth about why oil prices have risen, since its mostly not his fault? Here’s a script outline he could consider:
WARNING: Non-partisan parody follows. My apologies in advance to everyone offended.
2/ Oil has a 150 year history of being a deeply cyclical commodity. Buy Bob McNally’s great book “Crude Volatility” that eloquently and entertainingly brings this reality to life. RN, it’s mostly good ole supply/demand.
3/ Oil industry CAPEX was slashed due to traditional investor disdain following a decade of poor ROCE and stock price performance. Shale supply has suffered as a result. Why would anyone buy an oil equity when FAANG + TSLA + Crypto are the future!
1 of 10/ We badly need a new a narrative around climate and energy, if the goal is to have reliable, affordable energy the world needs with less CO2. The current “Oil is Evil and the New Tobacco” playbook, IMO, is driving a worst of all worlds outcome: Higher prices, Same CO2.
2/ Believing that we will have less CO2 if we could simply force oil companies to address “Scope 3” emissions is a fairy tale. You probably can succeed in killing the western oil industry as has happened with US coal. But the CAPEX, jobs, and CO2 will only shift to other regions.
3/ Does anyone know what year global Coal production peaked before its rapid decline following the demise of the Appalachia coal industry? This is of course a trick question, as it hasn’t happened yet. The jobs and CAPEX simply shifted to China and India.
1 of 8/ Energy Transition public policy and ESG pressures - the best thing going for the oil & gas sector
The unfolding energy crisis is unlike any prior. Normal investor angst about poor ROCE have been turbo-charged with a “worst of all worlds” public policy and ESG backdrop.
2/ We are not devoid of low-cost oil or nat gas resources, as we were in 2003-2010. But exactly no one wants higher CAPEX. Traditional and ESG investors, climate activists, and US/Canada/EU governments all argue for limiting oil & gas CAPEX.
3/ Incredibly, important media outlets are expressing surprise in their headlines when leading banking firms express a willingness to stick with oil & gas clients. Pressure is mounting to move beyond Coal and include Oil & Gas on the “taboo for bankers” list.
1 of 11/ Energy lies, damn lies, and politicians...Part 1.
This is a non-partisan look at energy sector falsehoods, mis-truths, and outright lies told by politicians, industry participants, environmentalists, and Wall Street analysts.
2/ ENERGY LIE: Gasoline prices are high due to “price gouging” and “manipulation” by oil companies (implication: by Big Oil).
3/ TRUTH: This has been investigated many times over many decades and is simply false, nevermind the times WTI has o/p gas w/o anyone decrying low margins. Will Ds go after the c-store chains that actually set local gas px? Big Oil owns only a small % of gas stations in the USA.
The weekend noise around OPEC+ highlights the critical importance of a healthy N. America oil & gas industry, without which the world is unlikely to alleviate energy poverty while also addressing climate change. Some questions:
2/ Why block/impede North America oil pipelines/infrastructure while begging OPEC+ for more supply? Canada is our friend and a pretty great country. Can’t say the same for some other parts of the world.
3/ Why discourage development of Canada’s oil sands or US shale while encouraging Saudi, UAE, Iraq, and Russia (?!?!?) to boost its output? And Iran might get to return but Canada pipes need to be blocked? WTF?
1 of 6/ Excellent essay by @JasonBordoff. In my words, killing Big Oil does not kill society’s desire to drive, fly, trade, conduct business, and aspire for middle class+ lifestyles.
2/ A few Qs: Do climate activists really want a world where OPEC+ gains market share? Why deter Canadian oil supply but not Iranian or Russian supply? Why not encourage governments to take serious steps to enforce ACTUAL mpg gains (hint: CAFE hasn’t worked)?
3/ Big Oil’s biggest issue is insufficient profitability over the past decade and it isn’t even that Big anymore at <3% of S&P. Medium Oil may be more accurate? Climate activism is currently aligned with traditional shareholders that want less CAPEX and more dividends. Thank you.