Why #NetZero has opened the biggest TAM ever for @PalantirTech in this decade and next
- COP26 and global activism has already set the world on a path of carbon reporting, mgmt, and compliance
- the biggest challenge is that system relies on polluters themselves to report
- Also the carbon footprint is very complex measure, for the purpose of modeling it is divided into three categories - Scope 1 covers direct emissions from owned or controlled sources.
- Scope 2 covers indirect emissions from the generation of purchased electricity, steam, heating, and cooling consumed by the reporting company
- Scope 3 includes all other indirect emissions that occur in a company's value chain.
- As you can see from above that estimating #NetZero is a data problem and that requires sharing of very large, high volume, real-time and complex data set across your own and vendors supply chain, which creates all kinds of data protection nightmare
- Also No one has addressed the problem at this scale in various commercial settings so its easier said than done
- Also it's a compliance issue i.e. the rules of game will change and companies need to understand now that what could be exposure tomorrow which is not threat today
- A successful #NetZero tool should have following - ability to connect with very large datasets of different type and sources in matters of hours than weeks, strong supply chain monitoring abilities, strong data protection and understanding of compliance framework, ......
....demographic constraints, ability to build a large relative ontology of total business, ability to plot revenue and margin as a function of carbon footprint mitigation cost, complex scenario simulation and goal-based strategy implementation, extremely high system reliability
- There is no single company that is solving it entirely by its own other than @PalantirTech. Many niche solutions are available and emerging in the market but none has this kind of breadth as of today, most are based on calculation and benchmark only with nice dashboards
- Last but not least, almost all of these companies lack a product that can do it all with min effort as #Foundry
- Nearly 43 trillion$ funds and asset managers have committed for #NetZero investment globally and it all starts from carbon footprint assessment
- All companies require to do it as it's part of compliance both for regulatory filing and access to finance, also to avoid cross-hair of many activist movements
- Its adoption is GIVEN & #Foundry strength is PROVEN, only question is whether $PLTR SALES can pull it now
- CLIENT needs a solution today and $PLTR despite all the effort is still constrained by scale-up efforts due to late investment in sales team
- I maintain my view - its a foundational software of future, available today but lacks effort in messaging 2 industries & sales scale-up
Based on the image below, you can see the majority of carbon footprint is driven by Scope 3. In some of the studies, i was involved it could be as high as 60-80% and it can't be estimated without access to 3rd party and vendor data

Image Source: carbon trust
The current carbon calculator approach used by organization is low fidelity and not capable to link the carbon emitted to its source, render any bottom-up carbon reduction plan useless without proper cost and business throughput impact --> it needs sophisticated tools #Foundry
The image below shows the $PLTR own carbon footprint and as you can see it is dominated by Scope 3, My view is that they used #Foundry for assessment as building used case inside is best way to test the product for clients also.
The image uses FCM - Foundry Carbon Module
FCM in action
Updated FCM analysis

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More from @sachinvats

15 Nov
Why I don't invest in ICE incumbents for EV exposure
- ICE incumbents have missed all key inflections point and key technologies breakthroughs in last 2 decades
- They are forced to move towards EV unwillingly when it became abundantly clear that EV is the way forward
- There are no clarity on the write-offs on ICE assets, restructuring and retrenchment cost and how the large amount of debt is structured and paid, while maintaining investment in EVs
- Despite large size and reach their aims and targets are a shadow of what $TSLA is aiming
- The current supply chain and dealership model is broken for the new reality
- inability to attract the best talent
- leadership with no proven track record of transition and innovation
- Focus on lip service to investors instead of game-changing moves
- focus on slowing things
Read 5 tweets
15 Nov
Why IMO H2 Fuel cell, biofuel, and Synthetic fuels are set to fail in auto sector
- Research on the fuel above is as old as EV itself and all major ICE companies conducted some research over the last 2 decades while keeping min to no R&D in BEV for one simple reason - familiarity
- i.e. in their head after building ICE for decades, they see it as a natural transition if people OPT for low carbon solutions
- The inherent error in this thinking is waiting for low carbon need to emerge and reaction-based strategy instead of frontier pushing strategy
- There was strong reason to act like that as the auto industry over the decades had the least threat from start-ups and organized it in a way where there were many tacit non-verbal agreements on the future path for auto
- Given poor and corrupt motive, it yields to no success
Read 9 tweets
1 Oct
I use options as tools for risk management. Some of my fav options strategies and when do I deploy
1 - LEAP buying - Risk capital OR stop loss amount during the severe drawdowns or elongated period of flat trading as it leads to decline in Imp Vol
2 - Selling covered calls - selling 10-20% OTM covered calls especially on high Imp Vol stocks, during high RSI and, recent highs and before strong resistance level. I exclude stocks that have the tendency to make very strong moves in short term and part of my long-term 10x hold
3 - Collar strategy - Sell CC and Buy Puts on stocks made strong gains in last few days/weeks and near-term headwinds expected -> Sell CC 10-20% OTM, collect premiums and buy 15-25% puts below the price. It's a hedging strategy and can be optimized to minimize cost
Read 13 tweets
1 Apr
@Don7Himanshu
IMO Shopify is an excellent company and I understand it is richly valued but the best days are still ahead, it's focused on SMEs and probably gets the best out of them for customers in this landscape. My family has swiftly moved to it instead of Lazada over time
When i was doing my DD for @klarna and competition landscape, realized that the TAM for e-commerce and fintech is so large that for the competition is irrelevant as long as you have customer-focused product and aggressive customer and sellers acquisition strategy
This helped me to risk e-commerce and fintech companies slightly differently. I focus on customer growth, total $$$ processed, and capital discipline. Shopify and Klarna both qualify on it. Stripe is on the same boat as well, and I also treat Shopify as fintech player too.
Read 5 tweets
31 Mar
Looking to swing trade few of these plays with stocks and covered calls 1-2 contracts only with April 16 expiry

$AI, $LAZR, $QS, $BLNK, $APPS, $PLUG

Criterion --> 5 billion$ market cap, severally beaten stock, and High Imp. Vol., if needed, can hold for longer and continue CC
The strategy here is simple, buy stocks sell covered calls 10-20% from the current price from April 16 expiry. If assigned collect cash, unless sell covered call again 2 weeks out.
One more day before funds made available by a broker to trade as they keep 4-5 days mandatory on hold after being credited. Moving the trade execution to tomorrow, let's see which of these opportunities are still attractive by tomorrow
Read 4 tweets
22 Mar
$PLTR milestones, I expect in 2021

- PLTR YoY revenue for 2021 >50%
- PLTR YoY client revenues >15% for existing client
- PLTR signs 10+ new contracts in existing sectors
- PLTR enters into 5+ new sectors
- PLTR introduce (at least 1) new and/or updated products by YE 2021
Let me add my PT related expectations about $PLTR if market sentiments keep dominating company and sector influence
- EO April 25-26$
- Q2 end near 30-35$
- YE 40-45$
If we see clear emergence of company and sector sentiment overtaking then we can expect higher prices
- Q2 end near 35$+
- YE 60$+
Fundamental news for the company has been stronger and likely not priced in $PLTR stock
Read 23 tweets

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