Thread by @larsiusprime

Predictions for next week regarding the big Axie paper my colleagues and I put out:

1) The cryptogaming discourse hype evolves from "Play To Earn" to "Play AND Earn"

2) Opportunistic Axie clones prematurely try to dance on Axie's grave

Don't count Axie out just yet, they have a ridiculous war chest and it's not clear how much wood remains to burn through; don't forget they intentionally slowed their own growth by halving payouts.

They're read the report and if they take our concerns to heart they could come out with any number of surprises when it comes to the new upcoming features; hopefully they avoid the predictable dangers we laid out in the report.

That said, I (personally) am not exactly bullish for anyone stamping out a game based on this template. I've seen a few games celebrating Axie's stumbles who are themselves vulnerable to many of the same problems, clearly they read the headline but not the report.

Note also that just because I observe something (such as Play-to-Earn --> Play-AND-Earn) doesn't mean I'm personally endorsing it. I'm a known crypto-skeptic and I'm here despite my misgivings because I don't like criticizing things I don't understand, so I'm here to understand.

My main observations of crypto land so far is that there are two very common failure modes in pundits and analysts:

1) Brains melted by "number go up"
2) Missing the forest for the trees

I've made these mistakes plenty of times myself in other fields, so glass houses and stones and all that, my point is it seems particularly prevalent here because there's so much tech and math and numbers to obsess about it's easy to get dazzled and distracted

All that said the market can remain irrational much longer than I can stay smug, so just because I point out some flaw in somebody's fundamentals doesn't mean you should expect a particular movement anytime soon.