Thread by @nicktolhurst

2022 will be a very different year for the UK politically.

The 1st Brexit deal anniversary will pass with very few Leavers celebrating. This mightn’t seem important but it really is.

We now move to the next stage:

The new status quo - the dull disappointing post-Brexit era.

If the opposition parties can avoid the various culture war traps then politics will return (as it’s already started doing so with the corruption issue) with the normal politics of competence & trust.

It’s vital the “European question” is framed thru this rather than leading it.

In other words:

Lab/LibDems should frame the debate around:

“Who is able to get a better deal with Europe, a better trading & political relationship?”

This might seem a silly question for remain voters but for “swing leave voters” this is the door they need to 1st go through…

The key here is to deconstruct Brexit on the battlegrounds where the opposition has the advantage - such as trust, competence, Johnson’s record & being anti Johnson…

…and not on areas where Johnson has the advantage - such as “showy patriotism”.

Both Labour & LibDems need to adopt something like a “better deal for Britain” communicative strategy.

This communicates the bad deal/situation Johnson has wrought while offering something better without painting themselves too much right now into a corner on the EU.

“A better deal for Britain” implies improvement & change while telling voters that it was Johnson that got it wrong - not them.

“A better deal” also subtlety opens up “voter acceptance” that the post Brexit situation has to change without risking a national culture war.

“A better deal for Britain” also implies a “British led” solution rather than a more passive “tail between legs we must return to Europe” answer.

For voters these things matter.

“We can do better” as opposed to “our country (you) screwed up”.

If Labour/LibDems are successful in this in the 1/2 years before the election…this then inevitably opens up the public debate on

“What sort of a better deal?”

Parties don’t need to answer this exactly & immediately - it’s more important that the question itself is “accepted”.

The key here is to avoid “Brexit is stupid” versus “Brexit is patriotic” debate.

But rather to move the public discourse on to:

What sort of deal/relationship do we want/would help us/can we achieve?

Once you get here public debate becomes more rational & opens up soft Brexit.

That’s why it’s best to think of rejoin as a “rolling process” not a “tipping point”.

A rational debate makes softer Brexit inevitable

Softer Brexit leads to single market membership

..and single market membership highlights lack of UK “institutional say” so leads to rejoin…

Now theoretically it’s possible that all 3 stages happen quickly - but it’s, in my view, extremely unlikely the last stage will - or even could - happen in less than 7-8 years.

But the 1st stage could happen inside the next 2-3 years and is the prerequisite for the next two.

This is why I prefer talking of a “better deal” which suggests “improvement” rather than “best deal” which implies an “end state”.

This is the conversation parties need to encourage and post 2022 I think many voters are - hesitantly but gradually - ready for.

/ends