Thread by @nicktolhurst

This is a difficult to write.
In fact, I’m sure a few will block me after reading this thread.
But it has to be said. Some claiming that a national progressive Alliance is something that can be magicked up simply don’t know what they're talking about.

Lets start with the Greens.

So here’s a question why doesn’t the Labour party form an electoral pact with the Greens?
Surely the Greens would win lots of seats.
The answer is almost certainly – No.

WHY?

The answer is simple – FPTP
But lets start in a strange place – Bassetlaw.
Very “ungreen” politically.
“RedWall” as media call it – Labour now Tory.
What does this tell us about Greens?
Well it had one of the biggest swings in electoral history – massive.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bassetlaw…

Yet that swing is nothing to what Greens have to do to simply get 2 seats instead of 1
To even turn the Greens 1 seat into say 3, swings of 20%+ will be needed.

This is essentially a strategy built on mass unprecedented swings.

electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/t…

But look closer. Virtually all Green targets are already in non-Tory hands.
Thats logical. Green targets nearly always only targets where theres a 4 - even 5! - way vote split. In other words the swing needed for a Green win is only below 25% as parties split the vote so much.

So realising a multi-party alliance in the usual sense of backing the strongest progressive party wouldn’t deliver any seats to Greens. Greens have suggested sitting MPs like Thangham Debbonaire in Bristol West stand down.

Thats big majority, vegan, proRemain, Green Debbonaire.

Problem is you cant force sitting MPs to stand down. How democratic is that?

Unless you offer Debbonaire a safe Labour seat elsewhere…

Its once you get to this point you realise biggest stumbling block is not “the evil” Labour party or “wicked” Starmer but local associations.

But wouldn’t this still be worth it?
Well risking the Tories getting back in where Labour steps down, overriding LAs, risking a backlash thru "denying the electorate choice"…could still help to deliver some more Labour MPs only if the Greens stand down everywhere else...

For that you’d need to get the Greens to stand down in say 600 seats in return for Labour “gifting them” 5 Labour seats.

I’d be up for this.

Would sitting MPs?
Would Labour LAs?

...but more to the point would the Greens...?

I say this as someone who’s voted green locally.

Who believes in cooperation/alliances with all progressive parties.

But it’s complex.
With many difficulties.

So no its not Starmer’s fault as he’s a secret Tory or secret Brexiter or other such nonsense.

We need to be smarter.

That’s why I think an open national progressive alliance simply won’t happen.

& people on twitter with no election exp telling you “it’s easy” or “only labour are stopping this” simply have no idea what they’re talking about.

The way to this is identifying the 80 core seats…

…and intensifying cooperation between parties and voters in these 80 core seats while ramping up tactical voting.

I’d like to see a joint GRN/Labour/LibDem statement & WG on constitutional future too.

These things are achievable.

If I were advising the Greens i'd tell them to offer Labour "the job lot" - Greens can only win at most 1-2 seats off their own back. So try & get Labour to accept a strategic partnership for next 2 elections on constitutional change.

Would Green LAs accept it?
Its a hard sell.

So to LibDems...

Here's a party with which Labour can easily work with.
& a symmetry which the Greens dont have.

Labour needs LibDems votes in "usual" Labour seats that are marginal with Tories.
Labour needs LibDems to go after leafy southern Tory seats.

But here's the issue..

Labour wants LibDems to scoop up all these Tory/LibDem marginals.
There's 20 just waiting to drop.
& unlike with Greens Labour & libDems aren't even competing there.

What could possibly go wrong - get a national PA now!
Here's the small problem...

electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/t…

The problem is this.
Coop & tactical voting great...but the deeper LibDems go into true blue territory the less it wants to be labelled as "Labour's little helper".

So LibDems want more discreet coop.

Dont believe me?
Listen to what LibDems are saying:

newstatesman.com/politics/2021/…

LibDems are masters at focussing on local seats & local wins.
They know they wont get 60+ seats anytime soon.
But what they know is theres a rich seam in Tory voters looking for an "out"...& being the "Labour approved LibDem" could risk this.

Thats why we need to be smarter

As I've said before its deeply weird watching a bunch of people on twitter confidently parcelling round party votes as if they're "block votes"...when they themselves wont even bother voting for a particular party unless it gives then EXACTLY what the want on Rejoin, PR etc now.

Have these people ANY IDEA how ridiculous they are?
People vote LibDem in Berkshire & Richmond for many reasons but one reason they dont is Labour people telling them to as a block.

So whats solution?

The main one is LibDems "soft pedalling" where they're weak in return for Labour doing likewise.

If you've any idea how hard this is to get LAs to agree to this you know why I laught at some on twitter.

But its doable.
& comined with tactical voting CAN swing next election.

Once again.
This is dobale and LibDems & Labour ARE working on this now.

But they need help/support and lobbying and (say it softly) party members to work across party lines.

Are you ready to do this?
You wont be if you keep blabbing on about not voting for Starmer or Davey.

Just to be clear:

I think parties can be persauded to stand down a few candidates.
"can"
But there wont be a full national open progressive alliance. Mainly becuase none of the parties want it.

So stop blaming Labour.
Work with it.
Infiltrate it.

So we've done the LibDems - so here's a quick 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 bonus:
There's 20 odd reasons why there wont be a national anti Tory alliance in🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿.

But here's the 3 biggest reasons:

1. The SNP don't need one
2. The SNP don't need one
3. The SNP don't need one

Its that simple.

...and thats even before you even get started on the union question.

No particular party is to blame.
It simply wont happen in Scotland.