1/n
Thread
A sort of loosey goosey view of the future.
$ONDS First Class 1 Rail signed (there are seven). This is enormous.
They move as a group. This is a natural oligopoly (that's the good kind).
This is, IMHO, absolutely the beginning of the full network.
So...
/1
Thread
A sort of loosey goosey view of the future.
$ONDS First Class 1 Rail signed (there are seven). This is enormous.
They move as a group. This is a natural oligopoly (that's the good kind).
This is, IMHO, absolutely the beginning of the full network.
So...
/1
This is the start of the $225M initial build out.
This is how:
* 140,000 miles of freight rail track.
* A base station every 22 miles.
* That's 6,300 base stations (those towers near stations) to be served with the heavier duty Ondas FullMAX gear, yielding $90M.
...
2/n
This is how:
* 140,000 miles of freight rail track.
* A base station every 22 miles.
* That's 6,300 base stations (those towers near stations) to be served with the heavier duty Ondas FullMAX gear, yielding $90M.
...
2/n
* 40,000 waysides (the little huts near train stations). These would start with Ondas' "Venus," yielding $100M.
* 65,000 crossings (the DING DING DING arms) in U.S. About half are electrified. Those would probably take Ondas' Mercury. That's 32,500 crossings for $32.5M.
3/n
* 65,000 crossings (the DING DING DING arms) in U.S. About half are electrified. Those would probably take Ondas' Mercury. That's 32,500 crossings for $32.5M.
3/n
* Total phase 1 build would be about $220M and 18% is ongoing recurring revenue.
* Phase 2 would follow - far larger, but years away.
* This does not include international rail, but Ondas signed a European customer last quarter and an Asian customer this quarter.
...
4/n
* Phase 2 would follow - far larger, but years away.
* This does not include international rail, but Ondas signed a European customer last quarter and an Asian customer this quarter.
...
4/n
* There is more rail track outside of U.S. than inside.
* The drone side of the business (American Robotics) guidance was $200M in recurring revenue by 2026 and with a 71% free cash flow margin.
* Xompany has $50M in cash on the balance sheet - all it needs for now.
..
5/n
* The drone side of the business (American Robotics) guidance was $200M in recurring revenue by 2026 and with a 71% free cash flow margin.
* Xompany has $50M in cash on the balance sheet - all it needs for now.
..
5/n
* The market cap is $500M, which would be 2x 2023 sales (mostly rail, some AR), and ignoring the international rail market, agriculture, oil & gas, Aura partnership.
...
6/n
...
6/n
* This is 1x 2026 sales, but by then the other businesses should be substantially larger, so more like 0.5x 2026 sales.
More speculation than investment as of today, no doubt.
But, once company delivers formal guidance on rail (numbers above are just my musings)...
...
7/n
More speculation than investment as of today, no doubt.
But, once company delivers formal guidance on rail (numbers above are just my musings)...
...
7/n
...
This turns more to an investment.
Cautious investing to all and rail guidance is needed from the company, not some guy (like me).
/8
This turns more to an investment.
Cautious investing to all and rail guidance is needed from the company, not some guy (like me).
/8
At this point this is more speculative than anything else and while I'm long, this should not be a material portion of a full portfolio. IMHO.
It may belong in the high risk portion.
/9
It may belong in the high risk portion.
/9
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
