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Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
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4 Nov, 7 tweets, 2 min read
$DOCN @digitalocean
with a huge quarter.

This is a $200 stock.

Market saw this as a 25% grower in 2020; Now delivering 37% with exploding retention rate and EBITDA margins.

Speaking w CEO today for CML Pro members.

Learn More
CMLPro.com
2/n
$DOCN

but, but... companies that serve SMBs can't have a net dollar retention rater above 100%...
$DOCN 3/n

DOCN wasn't supposed to able to do any of these things -- revenue growth supposed to be in 20's, retention can't rise serving SMBs, no way CapEx heavy company could deliver margins better than AWS.

...
$DOCN

4/n
We don't care what people believe;

We care what is not believed and happens anyway;

And that's the DOCN story.
$DOCN @digitalocean

5/n
Net Dollar Retention (NDR)
FY 2019: 100%
FY 2020: 103%
2020 Q3: 104%
2020 Q4: 105%
2021 Q1: 107%
2021 Q2: 113%
2021 Q3: 116%
6/n
$DOCN

And, average revenue per user (ARPU) per month is not supposed to grow with SMBs because there is so much churn.

Well, here is that history:
FY 2019: 40.2
FY 2020: 47.8
2021 Q1: 53.7
2021 Q2: 58.1
2021 Q3: 62
7/n
$DOCN

The company has gone from a 25% revenue growth rate in 2020, to now 37% in Q3 of 2021.

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More from @OphirGottlieb

Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
30 Oct
1/n
This is a thread for long term investors.

I've said this before but perhaps it bears repeating.

I'll use $TWLO as an example but there are many others like $AMZN, $SHOP, etc.

Focus less on TWLO and more on perspective (your edge = alpha).

...
2/n
$AMZN $SHOP $TWLO are some of our greatest examples of the underappreciated importance of a user base on a platform that in its early stages isn’t necessarily very impressive and doesn’t necessarily have an obviously profitable direction.

...
3/n
But the alpha comes from recognizing that, and then extrapolating not the current business, but rather the ‘what could be’ business, which is no small task because, when something doesn’t exist yet, imagining it is… difficult and risky.

...
Read 17 tweets
Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
28 Oct
1/n
$AAPL

* EPS $1.24, Inline
* Sales $83.40M Miss $84.85B Estimate
2/n
$AAPL

Too much China risk, IMHO, where success is... not success.

Apple Q4 Greater China Sales $14.563B vs $7.946B In Same Qtr. Last Year
3/n
$AAPL

* iPhone: $38.87 billion vs $40.578 billion
Read 6 tweets
Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
24 Oct
Little thread for this glorious Sunday:

We likely seen an increase in demand (not just the quantity demanded), shifting the demand curve out. 

An increase in demand with supply unchanged rises prices. 

...

/1
But how long the increase in demand lasts determines how much and how long inflation persists.

COVID hits more than 2020. The impacts are far reaching and multi year. 

But, it does end. Normalcy does return. 

...

/2
How much non normalcy any investor can tolerate is personal. Less tolerant = less exposure. 

Answer for yourself, "has the world's consumer base  permanently changed its demand curve or is it non permanent?"

Then answer "for how long?"

...

/3
Read 12 tweets
Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
28 Sep
A short thread

$ONDS

We learned some things today:

1. Pricing and margins of each Scout

* $50K ARR, $250K TCV (five-year deals)
* Cash flow margin 72% 😮

/1
A short thread

$ONDS

2. TAM for @AmericanRobotic

* About $115 billion

/2 Image
A short thread

$ONDS

3. Guidance for @AmericanRobotic

* 2022: $2.5M ARR
* 2024: $40M ARR
* 2026: $200M ARR

/3
Read 7 tweets
Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
28 Sep
Thread

$ONDS

One side of business is the only FAA approved drone system that can fly beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) with no pilot.

This is a two-three year lead per the firm.

Now we have revenue guidance...

/1
$ONDS Forecasts for drones

Each 'unit' is $50K/ yr in ARR and $250K in total contract value (TCV).

That means 2024 guidance is:
* $40M ARR
* $200M TCV

2026:
* $200M ARR
* $1B TCV

But there's more...

We also have a TAM

/2
$ONDS

The TAM, for just this side of the business is over $100B.

ir.ondas.com/all-sec-filings

/3
Read 4 tweets
Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
24 Sep
Thread

Many on Wall Street radically misunderstand where Internet infrastructure is going.

Myth:
Private cloud (on-prem) is dinosaur going the way of extinction to central cloud.

Fact:
True private cloud (TPC) has exploded. Forecast growth *greater* than central cloud.

/1
Not only is TPC exploding, but so too is the hybrid cloud, which is an infra architecture that uses both on-prem and central cloud.

...

/2
Furthering this discombobulated myth that on-prem is dying is another:

Myth:
Once in central cloud, no one looks back. It's all in and no private cloud once switch is made.

Fact:
Half(!) of central cloud only infra have deployed or are in the process of deploying HCI.

/3
Read 7 tweets

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